RosterResource Chat – 1/31/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Dwell Chat! We’ll get to as many questions as potential. Right here we go …

AL Central Casting: Any ideas on the place J.D. Martinez winds up signing? There may be not a whole lot of demand for RH DHs so does he find yourself going to whoever presents him essentially the most at the beginning of spring coaching? Perhaps with a watch towards getting traded to a contender later? Does he anticipate spring accidents to spice up his market?

Jon Becker: Jon Heyman reported simply final night time that he’s planning on taking part in this yr, and it’s unsurprising that there hasn’t been any reported curiosity in him (that doesn’t imply there isn’t any) since he’s a DH-only who was simply 8% above league common final yr by wRC+. He’d nonetheless be an improve for a bunch of groups however I also can perceive these groups not eager to lock of their DH slot. If he’s open to sitting extra typically (possibly towards robust righties?) he’d make a whole lot of sense for the Diamondbacks, Padres, Royals, and Giants (although the latter two groups don’t have good parks to hit in). Marlins additionally make sense if he’s high quality taking part in for a non-contender.

B Turang: What is going to the Brewers do with their infield? Transfer Ortiz, Turang, or neither to SS?

Jason Martinez: I believe it’s going to rely upon who wins the open infield spot. If Oliver Dunn is the beginning 3B, then Ortiz at SS and Turang stays at 2B. If Caleb Durbin is the beginning 2B, then Turang strikes to SS and Ortiz stays at 3B. Nonetheless a couple of good free agent choices, too. I believe Jose Iglesias could be a superb match at 2B and Yoan Moncada could be an attention-grabbing bounce-back candidate at 3B.

Matt: Do the Cubs nonetheless want a RHH 1B to backup Michael Busch or might Jon Berti try this this season?

Jon Becker: My guess is that they’d be completely high quality if it simply finally ends up being Berti. Backup 1B as a extra particular position has kinda passed by the wayside for the reason that common DH — often the backup 1B was additionally your high PH, shoutout Daryle Ward and Greg Norton! — and now it’s a whole lot of “we’ll give this man some work in spring coaching simply in case we want him.”

DJ: Estevez or Erceg get first crack at closing in KC?

Jason Martinez: I believe it’s both Estevez or “no set nearer” after which it’s nonetheless principally Estevez with Erceg getting a superb share. Perhaps an an occasional save likelihood for one of many different guys (Harvey, Schreiber, Zerpa). Erceg appears fairly comfy coming in sooner than the ninth and getting 4+ outs. I can see him getting some 4-5 out saves, however I believe he’s at all times extra prone to get the decision earlier within the sport than Estevez. So much less possible for a save likelihood.

Dana Brown: It appears extremely unlikely he will probably be moved, however what might the Astros get for Framber Valdez?

Jon Becker: The Burnes deal goes to be my go-to comp for Framber, Stop, and King since all of them have very roughly the identical commerce worth. The Astros now are a superb comp to the Brewers final offseason in that they’ll need MLB-ready expertise, in all probability particularly a LHH OF and a pitcher (starter or reliever, or some form of hybrid, like DL Corridor). Heston Kjerstaad and Cade Povich very broadly match that mould, simply to throw a hypothetical on the market.

Kate: What the heck do you all make of the Dodgers pen at this level?  RR makes it appear like an enormous shrug emoji and I’m unsure I blame you.  Looks like Scott and Yates prob have a leg up on the remainder for saves although, no?

Jason Martinez: I’ve it listed as committee proper now simply because I believe Dave Roberts is tremendous assured (possibly even a bit conceited) about his roster (why wouldn’t he be?) and it will be form of a flex to simply have 5-6 totally different guys getting saves so he can show that anybody in his bullpen could be a nearer. Nevertheless, Scott/Yates obtained paid like closers and I’d count on them to get the largest share of save probabilities.

Rayball10: The place do you see Rengifo taking part in principally in 2025? What number of whole video games?

Jon Becker: Proper now we’re allocating him 595 PA, second on the staff. Most of that’s evenly cut up between second and third, however Christian Moore arising ahead of anticipated would drive Rengifo to bounce round extra, or simply have him take over at third with Rendon on the bench/DHing extra.

diadem: What was Yamamoto’s well being historical past in japan? Any crimson flags?

Jason Martinez: Purple flag is that he throws a baseball as quick as he can for a residing. In all seriousness, I believe he stayed comparatively wholesome in Japan. Not even certain if he’s had a TJ surgical procedure. Unsure if {that a} good factor or not since it will definitely comes for each pitcher.

Kate: Is Starling Marte a short-side platoon man at this level?

Jon Becker: If he’s on the Mets, that’s actually all that’s open for him. They’ve tried to commerce him someplace the place he can get extra taking part in time however they understandably have had a whole lot of hassle with that since he’s making $19 million this yr and is de facto poor on protection now.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Is there a approach to talk the diploma of confidence in itemizing a staff’s nearer(s), particularly the place there are a number of candidates (see DET) or unproven ones (see CHW)?

Jason Martinez: You may ask me right here, social media, or e-mail me at rosters@fangraphs.com. At all times completely happy to debate my considering behind any roster or taking part in time projection. Many of the nearer projections that present a co-closing scenario or committee fall someplace between “a number of good candidates” and “zero good candidates”. Tigers have a number of good ones and confirmed final season that they weren’t afraid to go along with totally different guys. White Sox have zero good candidates.

Rayball10: What kind of position(s) do you see Eiberson Castellano in for the Twins to maintain him up all yr?

Jon Becker: He’s going to have to indicate he may be actually helpful as a multi-inning reliever, as a result of he’s buried on the depth chart for starters. Even when Varland is a full-time reliever he’s nonetheless behind López, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paddack, Festa, and Matthews for begins, at minimal.

Visitor: Is Zach Neto anticipated to be wholesome for Opening Day?

Jason Martinez: Not a whole lot of information obtainable right now. We simply know that he’s “questionable”. Loads of these with “questionable” standing will begin changing into clearer as soon as Spring Coaching begins as a result of the supervisor or GM begin answering extra questions continuously they usually have a greater thought on participant’s well being as soon as they really present up and begin doing baseball actions. I think they’ll be cautious with Neto. Appears to be a vital a part of their staff in order that they want him at 100%.

Kate: What are the percentages Brendan Rodgers lands someplace with a (near) on a regular basis position?

Jon Becker: I’d say a reasonably good likelihood, since he doesn’t steal bases nor does he play wherever moreover second base, so he’s a really robust promote as something however a beginning second baseman. Yankees have reported curiosity, and speculatively he’d make sense as a White Sox stopgap or Brewer (in the event that they need to re-rearrange the infield and go along with Turang at quick and Ortiz at third).

Alec: Does Curtis Mead get one other run at a major-league roll someday this yr? Does he look like a commerce candidate after the Kim signing?

Jason Martinez: Not likely a path to taking part in time, at the very least not heading into 2025. If the Rays fall out of competition, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe will nearly actually be on the commerce market and that will open up some taking part in time for Mead. Apart from that, I believe a commerce could be his greatest wager. Unsure his worth is the place the Rays would need it to be, although. He would possibly have to put up some large numbers in AAA to attract curiosity from different groups.

Alec: Is there room for Ryne Nelson within the crowded rotation/bullpen in Arizona this yr? He has some actually robust outings within the second half of final yr

Jon Becker: The rotation appears unlikely as issues sit, however I’d prefer to see them strive him out within the bullpen. He had that one Sunday Evening Baseball begin towards the Astros the place he was throwing 97-99 within the early innings, and if he can try this on each fastball as a reliever, he’d be an actual weapon.

JD: Will Kike Hernandez be within the Dodgers plans this yr? Have they got to launch Chris Taylor to make it work?

Jason Martinez: There may be room proper now. Andy Pages would start the season in AAA, although. I believe they’d be open to releasing Taylor sooner or later in 2025. Simply not earlier than the season begins. At all times an opportunity he figures one thing out and is quite a bit higher than the final couple seasons.

Dan H: The Big’s have two acknowledged targets which can be seemingly at odds, given the state of their farm and roster. One is to trim payroll, and the opposite is to compete. We’ve seen strikes signaling each of those (e.g buying and selling Rogers for money aid, signing Adames to an enormous deal), however at present it looks like they’re caught within the center. Who do you see as lifelike targets for them to pursue to perform every of those targets, understanding that outdoors of Eldridge they don’t have a lot to deal? I’d love a Flaherty signing to open up a commerce of a younger pitcher, however that feels unlikely at this level.

Jon Becker: I’m unsure these are inherently at odds, since we estimate they’ve $30M to work with earlier than hitting final yr’s payroll, so they may nonetheless lower payroll (simply by a smaller quantity) whereas, say, signing Flaherty or Pivetta. I believe not reinvesting the Rogers money could be a mistake with their clear wants (bullpen might use some assist they usually would possibly need another bat); I do know Posey mentioned they like their roster the place it’s at however that might very properly be posturing. Baseball ops heads don’t need to come throughout as determined.

JJ: ETA on ZIPS integration into FGDC? Thanks!

Jason Martinez: Final yr, I requested instantly after Dan completed his final staff as a result of I’m not very affected person. He nonetheless had some issues to do earlier than it may very well be combined into the components so it took at the very least a couple of further days. Hopefully, we’re on observe for someday subsequent week.

scuffy McGee: What non marquee free agent are you stunned hasn’t signed but

Jon Becker: This can be a very lame reply, however there aren’t actually any that shock me. If gamers haven’t signed it’s as a result of there’s a disconnect with what they need (whether or not that’s cash or taking part in time or location) and what’s on the market, and with any given free agent, elite all the way in which on down, that may be the case. It simply takes longer for some guys to both decrease their asking worth or get a staff to up its supply.

Jason Martinez: Jose Iglesias. Mr. OMG.

daro: What are the percentages Kristian Campbell is the opening day 2b? Will they only sit Vaughn Grissom? Is Campbell actually prepared for the Present?

Jason Martinez: If I needed to put odds on it, I’d say 50/50 proper now. Hamilton was attention-grabbing sufficient final season to offer him one other look, even when it’s simply to offer Campbell a couple of extra weeks in AAA. However I’m fairly certain if Campbell appears comfy at 2B and places up large numbers (not laborious to do in Spring Coaching), it’s gonna be tough to ship him to the minors when he might get a head-start on profitable the AL Rookie of the Yr award.

Mochi: Will Wagner getting any 3B motion this yr in Toronto?

Jon Becker: For certain, particularly in the event that they add one other hitter to chop into Wagner’s DH time. Clement is enjoyable and attention-grabbing however he makes extra sense as a bench participant who bounces round.

Jimmy: A’s are a sneaky staff for alternative as they transfer to a extra offensively lenient park. their depth chart now – they’re throwing Brown/Andujar platoon in LF… how lengthy earlier than they understand they need to simply give a man like Colby Thomas full-time PAs?

Jason Martinez: I believe Brown/Andujar could be a completely sufficient platoon. Brown completed robust after they referred to as him again up and Andujar crushes lefties. However, with that mentioned, Brown gained’t have a protracted leash and Thomas could be subsequent in line if he continues to hit properly in AAA.

Willie Mays Hays: Is Kerry Carpenter going to be a platoon participant once more in 2025?  Or do you count on extra ABs towards LHPs?

Jon Becker: I anticipate his utilization will probably be similar to final yr, when he nearly completely confronted righties. Simply too many righties and swap hitters (Vierling, Ibáñez, Wenceel, Justyn-Henry Malloy) to get taking part in time for all year long.

Pads-Cubs Commerce: How honest is Stop for Caissie & Birdsell?

Jason Martinez: It’s in all probability shut, though quite a bit would rely upon how a lot the Padres like Birdsell. He appears to be a prospect on the rise. I’d hope that Javier Assad could be a part of the return. Mexican pitcher from Tijuana with 4 years of service time remaining looks like an excellent match. Caissie would give them a LF/DH candidate. Add in a prospect (Birdsell or somebody comparable) and I believe it’s a superb deal.

Hunter: Which of Detroit’s fringy guys that may’t actually area (Tork, JHM, Jung) do you assume are most attention-grabbing in a commerce?

Jon Becker: Tork for certain. There’s not taking part in time for him in Detroit anymore, and that “first total choose” shine doesn’t go away this shortly.

Visitor: Is Kjerstad going to finish up with a whole lot of taking part in time by filling in each time one other hitter will get a time off, or will he be restricted to 100-250 PA?

Jason Martinez: Apart from Gunnar Henderson, the O’s lineup is stuffed with guys who might use 1-2 days off per week. There are simply 400+ PA obtainable for a “bench participant” on most groups. Simpler mentioned than finished, however I additionally assume it’s obligatory for Kjerstad this season. Can’t let the younger guys sit on the bench too typically. If he’s on the staff, I’d count on 3-5 begins per week.

Adames the Big: Ought to the Giants commerce Yastrzemski? What might they get?

Jon Becker: As their roster at present consists, no, I wouldn’t commerce him. He’s a solidly common or higher hitter and good fielder, and there’s not an apparent on a regular basis alternative for him. I don’t assume they’d get a lot again in a deal anyway, so it will turn out to be a “why hassle?” scenario, extra so than the Rogers commerce.

Visitor: Do you assume the Nats are proper to stay with Jacob Younger in CF relatively than transferring Wooden or Crews there?

Jason Martinez: For certain. Younger is an elite defender and he’s not likely blocking a high prospect. Perhaps Robert Hassell III forces his manner into the image this season. Till then, they will discover out if Younger is a greater hitter than he’s confirmed to date. On the following nice Nats staff, I’d guess Younger is the 4th OF. However they don’t must make that call but.

Alec: Who will get extra at-bats in Milwaukee this yr – Tyler Black or Jeferson Quero?

Jon Becker: I’ll say Black, that infield is a jumbled mess and he might undoubtedly combat by way of for loads of plate appearances, whereas Contreras would play 162 video games in the event that they let him, Haase is a strong backup, and Quero might want to get again in control after final yr’s damage.

James: Any updates on Bradish, when will he be able to rejoin the rotation?

Jason Martinez: He had Tommy John surgical procedure in June. It’s extremely unlikely that he returns in 2025. Excellent news is that he’s below staff management via 2028 and he ought to be prepared for a full season in 2026. That doesn’t imply we gained’t hear about how nice his arm feels and the way he’s forward of schedule a number of occasions all through the season.

Matt: No query, simply wished to thanks guys for all the work you do! Obsessively checking the roster pages and the matrix makes the winter go by sooner

Jason Martinez: Admire it! I like the offseason nearly as a lot because the common season. Only some extra slow-ish weeks after which continuous baseball within the information cycle.

Jason Martinez: Thanks for becoming a member of us! We’ll be again subsequent Friday on the similar time. Have an excellent weekend.