ZiPS 2024 Prime 100 Prospects

For the ninth time (in 10 years — it’s a protracted story), we’ve reached the purpose within the offseason the place I run down the ZiPS Prime 100 prospects. For these wandering in who might hear “ZiPS” and consider the College of Akron or probably the fashionable Cincinnati burger spot, ZiPS is a pc projection system that crunches a whole lot of knowledge about gamers and makes an attempt to see by means of the fog that obscures the longer term. You’ll be able to learn extra concerning the system right here or in MLB.com’s government abstract.

ZiPS prospect projections aren’t an try and supplant scouting. Moderately, they attempt to be a complement to scout-generated lists. There’s a whole lot of uncertainty in lower-level minor league stats that isn’t current on the higher ranges. As such, non-statistical details about gamers takes on added worth. ZiPS doesn’t search to be the one-ring-to-bind-them-all-unified-field-theory-giant-Katamari-Damacy-ball of prognostication; it goals to provide the easiest knowledge-generated predictions attainable, for individuals to make use of, ignore, mock, or worship in response to their preferences and worldview.

How does it work? Let’s flip again the clock to 2014 and the very first ZiPS Prime 100:

You’ll be able to see ZiPS’ failures and successes. Arismendy Alcantara and Alen Hanson appeared on different Prime 100 prospect lists, however ZiPS was simply essentially the most optimistic, which undoubtedly didn’t work out. The pc went out on a limb with Taylor Lindsey, a projection it could come to remorse (that’s, if I have been capable of program one thing to have emotions). However there have been successes, too. ZiPS was simply essentially the most bullish on Mookie Betts and Kolten Wong, and Marcus Semien was a rarity on different Prime 100 lists in any respect (Baseball America did have him at no. 91), not to mention this excessive. It was the massive believer in Jonathan Schoop, and it pumped the brakes a bit on Robert Stephenson and Kyle Crick. The gamers on the 2014 Prime 100 have mixed for 922.7 WAR within the majors by means of the top of 2023 (not together with the stray WAR for pitchers as hitters); the highest 50 guys have racked up 645.7 WAR.

So, with out additional exposition, let’s soar into the Prime 100 for 2024:

As normal, there’s a whole lot of settlement between ZiPS and the prospect crew relating to the sport’s prime prospects. This yr, 60 names on the ZiPS Prime 100 match these discovered on the FanGraphs Prime 100. That’s barely decrease than the typical (67), however a whole lot of that comes all the way down to the truth that I’m nonetheless together with overseas skilled gamers (who can’t web their crew draft decide compensation below the Prospect Promotion Incentive program) on this checklist. I wish to contextualize how gamers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shōta Imanaga would slot in with different prospects arising by means of the minor leagues; I don’t essentially assume that that’s a higher selection, however I favor to err on the aspect of offering an excessive amount of data, not too little. (To that finish, Eric and Tess famous within the introduction to their Prime 100 that on expertise, Yamamoto would have ranked second total, whereas Jung Hoo Lee would have stacked subsequent to Drew Gilbert. You could find their studies on The Board.) ZiPS can be nonetheless utilizing the outdated rookie eligibility guidelines concerning September roster days, that means the pc sees somebody like Davis Schneider, who technically graduated from rookie standing final yr based mostly on energetic roster days, as qualifying for the ZiPS Prime 100.

As at all times, there are just a few gamers who fall exterior the purview of a projection system. ZiPS has actually nothing to go on for gamers like Leodalis De Vries or Jonny Farmelo. ZiPS can also’t do a lot with highschool gamers, so the system has to go together with very restricted minor league knowledge when guys like Max Clark. For those who’ve found out the best way to translate highschool stats in a significant vogue, try to be publishing this knowledge somewhat than studying this text, since you’re manner higher at this than I’m! Pitchers like Rhett Lowder and Chase Dollander take fairly large hits as a result of whereas ZiPS makes use of faculty efficiency when it has to (to my everlasting chagrin), it definitely doesn’t belief that knowledge very a lot.

Let’s begin by wanting on the total crew numbers:

Twenty-eight of the 30 groups have somebody within the prime 100, with solely the Astros and the Royals shut out. Final yr’s shutouts — the Padres, Tigers, and Braves — all did notably higher this time round, particularly San Diego. The Pink Sox featured essentially the most gamers within the prime 200; after we go all the best way out to 500 prospects, the Rays take the highest spot. Tampa Bay didn’t do almost as effectively within the prime 50 or 100, nevertheless it’s a deep system that may crank out Joey Wendles all day lengthy, nearly as in the event that they have been the Wonka manufacturing facility. (I’m now picturing an Oompa Loompa music about Wendle, which amuses me, and probably solely me.)

I don’t do a full statistical writeup of every member of the Prime 100 — there’s no manner you’ve already completed studying the entire work from Eric and Tess, so get to it! — however I’ll break down the rankings into some extra manageable position-related chunks and contact on just a few of the highlights. Let’s begin with the primary basemen:

First base prospects often aren’t an thrilling bunch, just because lots of the subsequent technology’s finest first basemen will probably be gamers who didn’t fairly make the lower defensively at different positions. This was at all times true to an extent, even earlier than the imply outdated statheads with our vindictive positional changes ruined entrance places of work. Lots of prime first basemen of the final technology or two began out at third base (Jim Thome, Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira) or catcher (Carlos Delgado, Carlos Santana) within the minors. Miguel Cabrera performed extra minor league video games at shortstop than every other place!

Nolan Schanuel simply sneaks onto this checklist by way of eligibility, and he seems to be like he’ll be an OBP-machine within the majors. He and Zach Neto mirror effectively on the power of the Los Angeles Angels to draft place gamers who can contribute nearly immediately within the majors. The issue with that group, after all, is the shortage of means to do a lot else. Kyle Manzardo takes an damage hit from final yr’s rating, however he’s nonetheless on observe to be a good starter within the majors and was an excellent pickup for the Guardians, not less than if the pc is appropriate.

After Manzardo, there’s an enormous drop to Abimelec Ortiz, a thicc first baseman who terrorized the Sally League to the tune of 26 homers in 80 video games with out placing up a felony variety of whiffs. ZiPS solely initiatives a .227/.285/.435 line for him in 2024, however he’s nonetheless bought a methods to go, and I believe the Rangers will probably be extra open-minded to a basic Swing from the Heels first baseman than most organizations nowadays. Xavier Isaac would rank greater, however he’s about six months to a yr behind Ortiz, and ZiPS simply desires to see a bit extra. One ought to take Matt Mervis’s uncooked numbers within the minors with a grain of salt, just because offense is so inflated within the higher minors proper now, however ZiPS nonetheless sees him and Spencer Horwitz not less than being respectable stopgaps at first in a yr or two. It’s not essentially the most thrilling stuff, nevertheless it pays the payments and racks up these pension days!

One factor that ZiPS commonly disagrees with the prospect crew on is the way it considers second basemen. This yr, ZiPS landed 15 second basemen within the Prime 100 whereas the FanGraphs checklist solely has two! It’s comprehensible in that second base feels a bit just like the comfort prize, like whenever you get Nacho Cheese Doritos as an alternative of Cool Ranch. ZiPS typically agrees with Eric and Tess on Termarr Johnson and Jace Jung. I’m nonetheless unsure if Jace Jung finally ends up at second or third — this partially will depend on what the crew does with Colt Keith — however he ranks equally both manner.

After that, we get to the blokes the pc likes greater than the scouts. Jorbit Vivas seems for the second straight yr with a virtually an identical rating, and whereas he doesn’t have a substantial amount of upside, he could possibly be a positive fill-in for 4 or 5 years if the Yankees transfer on from Gleyber Torres. In that manner, he’s not that dissimilar from a pre-Mariners Kolten Wong. And if Vivas doesn’t work out, ZiPS can be into Jared Serna, who confirmed some strong energy numbers in A-ball final yr.

Jackson Holliday is terrific, after all; if he doesn’t work out within the majors, it’ll be essentially the most mistaken the computer systems and scouts have ever been. He’s gotten a lot press that I ponder if Jordan Lawlar hasn’t develop into a bit underrated basically fandom? An .840 OPS in Double-A is implausible for a 20-year-old shortstop, and he was even higher in his transient stint at Triple-A. Jackson Merrill’s projection doesn’t take a lot of successful if he finally ends up at second base, however ZiPS, which makes use of a probabilistic measure of minor league protection based mostly on the coordinate areas of each ball hit into play, isn’t really apprehensive about his protection at brief, seeing him as about common there. The larger drawback for him, after all, is the presence of Xander Bogaerts on a big contract. If the Padres get off to a nasty begin this yr, they could have to decide on Ha-Seong Kim, the incumbent second baseman.

Masyn Winn was one of many largest one-year gainers in ZiPS, with the pc now loving him as a lot as any scouts do. Adael Amador would rank even greater, however ZiPS does have some considerations about his protection, resulting in a -6 run projection for him at shortstop proper now. Change that to zero, and he strikes up behind Merrill. For those who’re searching for a sleeper, I’d go together with Danny De Andrade, who confirmed some average energy in a full season in A-ball; the pc can be mildly optimistic about his glove.

Between Coby Mayo and one other Oriole within the subsequent part, Baltimore might very effectively have yet one more severe contender for the highest spot going into 2025. ZiPS thinks Mayo will peak with an OPS+ within the 115-125 vary and contribute above-average protection at third. ZiPS sees Junior Caminero as one of many higher energy hitters at third over the subsequent decade, although he definitely doesn’t have the look of a burly slugger. ZiPS continues to be holding out hope that Michael Busch can play third base; should you solely take into account him a primary baseman, he drops fairly a bit, as the pc simply doesn’t see him having the offensive upside you want there. Colt Keith, Noelvi Marte and Curtis Mead undertaking equally by each ZiPS and the prospect crew.

Lengthy-time ZiPS fave Bryan Ramos has really slipped a bit since final yr, by advantage of an early-season groin damage that nagged at him in 2023, in addition to the truth that there’s now one fewer yr left for some loopy breakout to occur. Ramos really dropped to fourth within the White Sox group on this rating, handed by Noah Schultz, Colson Montgomery, and Edgar Quero. At the very least he’s not lonely on the Prime 100 nowadays.

Basallo! After a monster season that noticed him get a while at Double-A Bowie whereas nonetheless a young person, Samuel Basallo has shot up the rankings to be the highest catcher on the checklist. The general rating is just decrease than FanGraphs’ as a result of, effectively, catchers typically have bizarre, unpredictable developmental patterns, so ZiPS isn’t fairly as assured as it could be if he have been the identical participant however at shortstop. Jeferson Quero will doubtless stay at catcher, and ZiPS is extra optimistic about his offense now that he’s performed a bit within the higher minors. The one factor I’m sadly lacking is framing for minor leaguers. Ethan Salas might transfer up this checklist as quick as Basallo did within the final yr, however the laptop nonetheless desires to see extra of him earlier than taking the plunge. So long as he stays a catcher, Harry Ford will preserve sticking on this checklist, however ZiPS doesn’t assume he’ll present fairly sufficient offense — not less than within the median consequence — to maneuver to a different place, seeing him as form of Weight loss plan Dave Magadan.

Naturally, many of the gamers on this checklist are heart fielders, as a result of heart fielders find yourself largely being those who find yourself filling all of the outfield positions after they graduate. Jackson Chourio’s upside is huge and he comfortably suits on the highest of the checklist.

There are two large exceptions to this centerfieldocracy, with two Rangers left fielders, Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, combating it out with Chourio and James Wooden. Carter, after all, excelled in a late-season call-up and the playoffs, very like Randy Arozarena did just a few years in the past. Langford has as a lot energy upside as anybody within the minors, and ZiPS sees him because the most secure offense-only selection within the minor leagues as a complete, so it’s not exhausting to see why the Rangers intend to advertise him aggressively this season. With Pete Crow-Armstrong’s rating, you possibly can see why I haven’t given the Cubs a lot grief for not having re-signed Cody Bellinger; I feel Belli is solely extra helpful to different organizations.

The 2 outfielders with the perfect defensive numbers within the minors additionally each make the Prime 100. The primary one you most likely know: Ceddanne Rafaela of the Boston Pink Sox. His offense was decidedly meh throughout his call-up, however ZiPS nonetheless believes he’ll hit justtt sufficient to help a glove that it thinks is terrific. Just one outfielder had higher defensive numbers than Rafaela by way of the strategy I take advantage of, and he’s a participant it’s possible you’ll not know as effectively: Jorge Barrosa of the Arizona Diamondbacks. ZiPS mainly sees him as the subsequent model of Kevin Kiermaier, although with a barely completely different form (extra walks however much less energy). The projections for his peak come within the .260/.350/.370 vary with top-notch protection. ZiPS isn’t precisely popping out of nowhere when appreciating his protection, as he’s a 55/60 current/future glove in our rankings and a 70 over at MLB Pipeline.

There aren’t any actual surprises right here till you get to Owen Murphy at no. 38 a Braves first-rounder from 2022 who bought a dynamite translation in ZiPS regardless of the comparatively lackluster ERA. Actually although, I simply need him to pitch to Sean Murphy within the majors so I could make Murphy’s Legislation jokes and/or article titles. ZiPS doesn’t give Yu-Min Lin an enormous ceiling and he definitely doesn’t have the massive velocity, nevertheless it sees him as a comparatively polished prospect who pitched very effectively at Double-A when you think about his age and the very fact the Texas League was a high-offense league (5.23 runs per recreation) in 2023. To not point out the truth that Amarillo’s Hodgetown, the one one phrase stadium I’m conscious of, was the most important residence run park in skilled baseball final yr.

Jackson Jobe had an excellent return in 2023, sufficient to put him excessive within the rankings, and ZiPS likes Drew Thorpe being included within the Padres commerce. The love of Dylan Lesko — not less than by a PC — is tougher to grok, however ZiPS tends to not be fairly as apprehensive about stroll fee within the low minors for a man that whiffs a billion batters. There’s excessive variance right here, however that’s sufficient to provide him intriguing potential.

For those who’re searching for causes to be upset with how the White Sox are run nowadays, ZiPS is supplying you with a brand new one within the type of Cristian Mena. ZiPS already noticed him as a authentic starter within the majors in 2024, however the Sox traded him to Arizona for Dominic Fletcher. Fletcher hit effectively in his large league debut, however all of the projection programs have him with a high-70s/low-80s wRC+, making him a first-rate fourth outfielder candidate. That has worth, however much less so for a rebuilding group.

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