Heading into the yr, everybody thought this might be the season that Shohei Ohtani, rehabbing from elbow surgical procedure and DHing solely, stepped apart and yielded MVP to another person earlier than resuming his place because the de facto favourite for the award in 2025. As a substitute, Ohtani determined to make a run on the first ever 50-homer, 50-steal season. The opposite main competitor for NL MVP is Francisco Lindor, who isn’t chasing any statistical milestones and performs for a workforce whose most attention-grabbing narratives contain an amorphous quick meals mascot, the musical endeavors of a part-time utility infielder, and the failure to increase Pete Alonso. And but, Lindor’s place atop the NL WAR leaderboard calls for consideration.
The marginal distinction between Lindor and Ohtani’s WAR totals (7.4 and seven.0, respectively, on the time of this writing) creates a digital tie to be damaged primarily based on the non-public convictions of voters and anybody else with an opinion and an web connection. For many, the selection between the 2 distills down as to if Ohtani’s 50/50 chase overrides his DH-only standing. I’m not right here to disparage Ohtani for not enjoying protection, however in case you discover that disqualifying for MVP recognition, I really feel that. Then once more, WAR features a positional adjustment that does ding Ohtani with a major deduction for not taking the sector, and he’s nonetheless been protecting tempo with Lindor on the worth entrance anyway, so there’s not rather more evaluation to do there.
As a substitute, I wish to discover how Ohtani’s one-dimensional position interacts with the worth of a roster spot and the restrictions that it locations on how Los Angeles constructs and deploys the remainder of its roster. In a two-way Ohtani season, he brings large worth to a person roster spot as a frontline starter and an elite hitter who takes 600 or so plate appearances. However this yr he contributes solely as an offensive participant.
In the meantime, the 2024 Dodgers protection kicked off the season by declaring Mookie Betts a beginning shortstop, and formally transferring on from the notion that Gavin Lux would take over the place. Shifting Betts to the infield means nobody has began greater than 50 video games in proper subject for the Dodgers thus far this season. Probably the most constant presence within the outfield has been Teoscar Hernández with 94 video games began in left and 49 in proper, the place between the 2 he’s amassed -12.5 defensive runs above common. 5 Dodgers have performed not less than 20 defensive innings at three or extra totally different positions; Enrique Hernández has performed each place however proper subject and catcher. Altogether, Los Angeles has struggled to subject a constant protection, forcing lots of its gamers to be jacks of all trades but masters of none. Between the inconsistent roles and lackluster defensive expertise at a number of positions, the Dodgers clock in under common when it comes to each OAA and FRV.
The roster gymnastics required to subject a minimally competent defender at every place dominoes into circumstances the place hitters with distinct platoon splits discover themselves in suboptimal matchups. Early within the season when nonetheless working underneath their meant plan for the season, it was clear the Dodgers most popular that Lux, Jason Heyward, and James Outman begin solely in opposition to right-handed pitchers, with Enrique Hernández, Chris Taylor, and Miguel Rojas primarily beginning in opposition to lefties. However with Betts, Rojas, and Max Muncy lacking chunks of time all through the season attributable to accidents, Plan A has been troublesome to keep up.
After selecting to let Corey Seager and Trea Turner depart as free brokers in consecutive offseasons, it’s laborious to not marvel what the Dodgers would possibly seem like with a participant of Seager or Turner’s caliber at shortstop and Betts stabilizing the outfield as an alternative of studying to play infield. Enter Francisco Lindor. What if Ohtani’s DH-only roster spot have been occupied as an alternative by Lindor? In a vacuum their value-add to a workforce is comparable, however within the context of a league with restricted roster spots and a workforce in want of defenders, would Lindor be extra precious to the Dodgers than Ohtani?
An apparent caveat earlier than we proceed, this thought experiment applies solely to the 2024 season. The Dodgers knowingly made a short-term tradeoff in favor of a long-term payout, and I’m certain they haven’t wavered on that call, whilst they submitted the paperwork to accumulate the likes of Nick Ahmed, Amed Rosario, and Cavan Biggio. This hypothetical is only to discover the worth of roster spots and participant versatility, to not counsel that the Dodgers shouldn’t have signed Shohei freaking Ohtani.
For the primary 148 video games of the Dodgers’ season — heading into this previous weekend — I went by means of each beginning defensive alignment and penciled in Lindor at shortstop. Then primarily based on the handedness of the opposing pitcher, reorganized the remainder of the protection accordingly and changed Ohtani at DH. Typically talking, this meant transferring Betts to proper subject (earlier than the Dodgers made that transfer themselves after he returned from the IL in August) or sliding Rojas and his above-average protection over to second, letting Lux DH versus righty pitching, and getting each Teoscar Hernández and Austin Barnes some DH alternatives in opposition to lefties. We’ll get extra into the “why” behind these choices shortly, however first let’s take a big-picture have a look at how this realignment would’ve impacted every participant’s WAR totals.
On this realignment, Rojas and Barnes see a big bump by advantage of elevated enjoying time, whereas gamers like Andy Pages, Enrique Hernández, and Outman profit from getting a bigger share of their plate appearances in advantageous platoon matchups. In the meantime, the bump for gamers like Betts and Lux comes from optimizing their defensive output. For Betts, which means extra time in proper subject, his strongest place; for Lux, much less time enjoying any protection in any respect. (His play at second has been under common relative to others on the place, however roughly common total as soon as the positional adjustment is included.) The declines in WAR correspond totally to lowered enjoying time.
Summing up the projected WAR totals and evaluating to the workforce’s precise WAR reveals a 3.0 WAR improve total when including Lindor and subtracting Ohtani. The most important features come on the defensive aspect of the ball (see under), the place transferring Lux off second base in favor of Rojas, including a full season of Lindor at brief, and getting extra innings from Betts in proper result in an enchancment of just about 19 defensive runs above common (together with all positional changes). Provided that the run surroundings this yr units the bar at roughly 9.7 runs per win, the advance on protection mainly accounts for two-thirds of the rise in workforce WAR.
The person decreases in defensive manufacturing outcome from gamers getting lowered enjoying time, with the lone exception being Teoscar Hernández, who sees a bit extra time in left subject, the place he isn’t a constructive contributor. Betts and Rojas spend extra innings at positions the place they’re proficient, whereas Enrique Hernández and Taylor see much less enjoying time at positions the place they don’t seem to be.
However defensive enhancements apart, one would possibly nonetheless count on the offense to take a success with out Ohtani. Lindor is an above-average hitter, however he’s not Ohtani. But, with Lindor within the fold, it’s attainable to make sufficient enhancements on the margins to shut the hole between Lindor’s 136 wRC+ and Ohtani’s 168 wRC+. The chart under highlights the variations in particular person participant output, indicating that a number of the enchancment outcomes from addition by subtraction. Giving much less total enjoying time to Outman and the fringier gamers on the roster resembling Ahmed, Taylor Trammell, Rosario, and Biggio helps, as does devoting extra plate appearances to extra productive gamers like Barnes and Rojas. One other plus is curating enjoying time to gamers’ platoon splits. Pages, Lux, and Enrique Hernández all see their plate-appearance ratio tilt towards their most popular pitcher-handedness matchups, and getting some strategic days off for Teoscar Hernández versus righties boosts his numbers a bit.
Barnes is value digging into particularly, as he advantages from the elevated enjoying time, which maximizes his significantly robust efficiency in opposition to lefty pitching this yr (145 wRC+). Certain, this projection may be overly optimistic; this season Barnes has solely 43 plate appearances versus lefties, operating the danger of representing extra noise than sign. His profession mark in opposition to lefties is nearer to common, however the platoon break up does nonetheless persist, and since this train solely covers 2024, it feels justified to make use of this yr’s mark. Even when his efficiency have been to dip over a bigger pattern, it will have an extended method to go for Barnes to cease being a productive alternative for about an additional 80 plate appearances in opposition to lefties.
Admittedly, this isn’t an ideal train. Swapping gamers out and in and assuming they may proceed to keep up their manufacturing in barely totally different contexts whereas getting extra enjoying time leaves loads of room for error. These modifications work together with one another and different exterior components in methods which are troublesome to account for. However numbers apart, one can have a look at issues from a extra strictly baseball perspective and see the advantages of granting gamers extra constant roles and crafting these roles to incorporate extra of what they’re finest at doing as an alternative of simply what they’re able to doing. And although it’s simple in charge the suboptimal defensive alignments and lineup oddities on Ohtani’s not enjoying protection, the workforce’s ratio of position gamers to lineup mainstays isn’t actually what you’d count on from a powerhouse just like the Dodgers. A roster with Enrique Hernández, Taylor, Heyward, Rojas, Vargas, Outman, and Lux creates a tricky puzzle to piece collectively, one which turns into barely simpler with that further lineup spot to make use of. Granted gamers like Lux and Outman weren’t considered position gamers within the early going, nevertheless it’s on groups to plan for these contingencies. A workforce with one or two extra persistently common or barely above-average gamers would don’t have any challenge working round a DH-only season of Ohtani.
Moreover, Los Angeles’ steady of position gamers formed its method on the commerce deadline. Because the Dodgers managed accidents to Betts, Rojas, and Muncy, their wants spanned your entire diamond. There was no single-player or single-position resolution. The Dodgers wanted Ahmed, Edman, Rosario, and Kevin Kiermaier to plug holes. With Lindor, possibly they’d nonetheless get a kind of gamers as a depth piece, however they’d be capable to focus their time and deadline sources on getting one affect outfielder (say Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jesse Winker, or Randy Arozarena) value a win or two on their very own, as an alternative of setting out a whole set of replacement-level Tupperware to account for a leaky protection. Then, supervisor Dave Roberts might extra totally maximize the energy of his depth items to plug any remaining holes, growing their potential to contribute constructive worth, as we’ve already seen demonstrated.
So though the strategy isn’t completely exact, and we are able to’t actually start to calculate the cascading impacts on the commerce deadline and the way better consistency in enjoying time and roles affect efficiency, an estimated three-win surplus isn’t a small quantity within the context of a playoff race. The Dodgers’ division lead over the Padres presently sits at 3.5 video games and would really feel a lot safer at 5 or 6 video games. Maybe extra importantly, the Dodgers are solely two video games forward of the Brewers for the second first-round bye. As accidents proceed to chunk the Los Angeles rotation, and the workforce works to get one or two of its sidelined pitchers wholesome and constructed again up earlier than the postseason, the additional time for relaxation and rehab, coupled with fewer playoff innings to cowl total, is a luxurious it desperately wants.
If there’s one factor to remove from this text, it’s that gamers present extra worth to their groups than what’s mirrored of their WAR totals, particularly those that do a number of issues properly. That’s why, in a yr when the Dodgers characteristic extra one-dimensional position gamers on the similar time that Ohtani is relegated to DH-only duties, we are able to conclude that Lindor can be extra precious to this season’s workforce than Ohtani. Even so, I can’t assist however marvel that Ohtani is so good at hitting that not solely does he make up for his personal lack of defensive contributions, however he additionally does sufficient to virtually totally account for the detrimental defensive contributions of his teammates who’re pressured to take the sector as a result of the DH spot is occupied. That’s so spectacular.
So don’t take this as an indictment of the Dodgers’ roster development, however relatively as an object lesson on the worth of a roster spot, the other ways by which that worth is accrued, and the way the methods totally different gamers accrue worth work together with each other once they’re on the identical workforce. Not each participant must be a Lindor, and most gamers can’t be an Ohtani, however there are methods to purposefully construct an efficient roster round both kind of participant and each kind in between.
And in case you got here to this text hoping for a definitive tackle who ought to win the NL MVP, I’m sorry I don’t have one for you. However assuming Lindor’s again challenge doesn’t power him to overlook important time, the choice deserves to be a troublesome one if we’re contemplating all sources of worth.
