To Heck With the 4-Seam Fastball

The perfect pitch in baseball is a well-located four-seam fastball. It’s the rhythm guitar of pitching, the rock upon which the church is constructed. To determine the fastball first is key; to pitch some other method is backwards.

Perhaps you don’t want it in any respect.

Within the late twentieth century, rock and roll developed into completely different well-liked varieties that both de-emphasized the position of the guitar or eradicated it altogether. Some artists went ahead and embraced digital devices; others went again in time and rediscovered the piano. Of the 603 pitchers who threw no less than 250 pitches final 12 months, 49 didn’t throw a single four-seamer. Lots of them have been fairly profitable. The anti-four-seamer crowd contains prime relievers like Josh Hader, Camilo Doval, and José Alvarado, in addition to elite starters like Corbin Burnes and Framber Valdez.

A sinker typically has extra arm-side motion than a four-seamer, on the expense of some velocity. (Although not at all times.) A cutter breaks within the different course, glove-side, at a nonetheless slower velocity, occupying a form of center floor between a fastball and a slider.

When you’ve got each of these, what occurs if you happen to don’t have a four-seamer?

Final season, 24 certified pitchers had a repertoire that was no less than 20% every cutters and sinkers, whereas throwing a four-seamer lower than 5% of the time. These pitchers are all particular in their very own method, and I spent extra time than I’d have favored attempting to choose up a typical thread that unifies them, so right here’s the entire listing, sorted by total fastball utilization:

First, and maybe least attention-grabbing, are what I’d name the kitchen sink starters. These pitchers don’t have elite velocity, however what they do have is a assorted, balanced repertoire of no less than 4 pitches. They don’t throw exhausting, however they throw with mainly each form of spin and motion you’ll be able to consider. Such a pitcher has no use for a four-seamer, as a result of it’d be simple to hit.

You’ll discover on this listing a pair of Cy Younger winners hanging on to the again finish of their careers — Dallas Keuchel and Corey Kluber — plus a lot of youthful starters with various levels of effectiveness. Assume Cal Quantrill, Dane Dunning, Clarke Schmidt, and Ryan Yarbrough. There’s additionally Martín Pérez, who’s been hanging on to the cliff face by his fingernails — and innumerable 93 mph sinkers — for a couple of decade now.

Then you definately’ve obtained some pitchers who’re nominally throwing cutters that is likely to be higher described as sliders, like Aaron Loup. Of those 24 pitchers, Loup has essentially the most broadly assorted sinker and cutter. The distinction in common horizontal motion is nineteen.7 inches (second of 24); the distinction in vertical drop is 11.2 inches (sixth), which is knowledgeable by an 8.6 mph distinction in velocity (the best of the 24 pitchers). That is successfully a fastball/slider combo.

And we all know that mixture could be efficient; Justin Lawrence combines warmth and arm-side run with a sweeper with wild glove-side break. Two pitches diverged in a slender wooden, and many others. It’s mainly the prime Craig Kimbrel fastball/curveball prisoner’s dilemma method, rotated 90 levels. Loup, being left-handed and giving up a number of miles an hour of fastball velocity to Lawrence, wants a changeup to maintain right-handed hitters sincere.

As a result of these pitchers all have such assorted fastball velocities and cutter shapes, it’s exhausting to pin down a theme or pattern, however you’ll be able to see which groups are focusing on pitchers who don’t throw four-seamers. Drop the edge for cutter utilization to 10%, and three Rockies pitchers present up. That’s along with Quantrill, whom Colorado simply acquired this offseason. That is sensible; within the skinny air of Denver, you don’t need a pitcher throwing something that doesn’t transfer.

Additionally of curiosity is Boston, which had 5 alternative-fastball pitchers among the many 22 gamers who pitched no less than 10 innings for the membership final 12 months. 4 of them — Kluber, Richard Bleier, Brandon Walter, and Justin Garza — noticed restricted motion and posted ERAs north of 5.00. Suffice it to say that experiment didn’t work.

However Josh Winckowski, who was acquired within the three-team Andrew Benintendi deal in 2021, was mainly the highest-usage reliever in baseball final 12 months. (He threw 84 1/3 innings, which might’ve put him in a three-way tie for many amongst relievers, however that complete features a one-inning opener begin, so technically Winckowski completed third.)

Winckowski was fairly dangerous within the rotation in 2022, however after transferring to the bullpen in 2023, he minimize his ERA in half, from 5.89 to 2.88. Shifting to reduction allowed Winckowski to extend the speed on his sinker by two ticks, de-emphasize his four-seamer and changeup, and swap the utilization profiles of his two main glove-side-breaking pitches — his slider and cutter.

In 2022, he threw his slider (85 mph, with exhausting vertical break) about as soon as each 4 pitches and his cutter (88-89 mph, with above-average horizontal break) as soon as each 9 pitches. In 2023, he threw his cutter a couple of third of the time and his slider one-sixth of the time, growing his complete fastball utilization to 73%.

Now, Winckowski nonetheless had a 7.5 mph differential between his sinker and cutter, which was the second-biggest hole, behind Loup, within the 24-pitcher pattern. He additionally had the third-biggest differential in vertical drop and the fourth-biggest in horizontal motion. These have been two clearly distinct pitches, relatively than related choices that may veer in a single course or one other on the final second. However as with all fastballs, effectiveness tends to enhance with velocity.

Which brings up Alvarado.

Each different sinker/cutter pitcher no less than has a show-me breaking ball or offspeed pitch, however Alvarado threw nothing however fastballs in 2023. The closest pitcher to Alvarado by way of motion and effectiveness is Camilo Doval, who’s additionally the one pitcher on this group who throws as exhausting as Alvarado does. Doval has comparatively modest variations in velocity and horizontal motion between his two fastballs, however greater than 11 inches of vertical separation. Like Alvarado, he additionally throws his two fastballs in related proportions, relatively than utilizing one to arrange the opposite as a change of tempo.

However Doval’s most-used pitch — not his out pitch, the pitch he threw greater than some other final 12 months — was not a fastball, however a slider. Alvarado hasn’t thrown a breaking ball since June 2022; he solely threw 11 curveballs that complete 12 months. The final time he threw a number of curveballs in an outing was Might 25, 2022, which was his final look earlier than being despatched to the minors to determine himself out.

Two weeks later, Alvarado re-emerged as a fastball-only machine, and the very best reliever on a Phillies staff that’s been to the NLCS back-to-back years. Since his return, Alvarado leads all relievers (minimal 80 innings) in FIP. Among the many 24 cutter-sinker pitchers, Alvarado ranked first final 12 months in opponent xwOBA on fastballs and second behind Doval in wOBA.

What’s the key?

Properly, like I stated, throwing exhausting. Alvarado has a big velocity differential between his sinker and cutter — 5.6 mph — however his cutter nonetheless is available in sooner than most pitchers’ sinkers, and even four-seamers. When every little thing is available in that quick, particularly from the left aspect, it’s inconceivable to hit.

So possibly the traditional knowledge is correct: A well-located fastball is the very best pitch in baseball. And if the fastball in query isn’t a four-seamer, a pitcher won’t want anything.