What’s Subsequent for the Cincinnati Reds?

Whereas the e-book isn’t fully shut on the 2024 Cincinnati Reds, with a 0.3% projected likelihood of constructing the postseason getting into this week, solely a plot twist out of left subject may change the story. At 82-80, the 2023 Reds weren’t precisely good, however after getting into the season with a bleak outlook, they comfortably beat most expectations. On condition that their enhancements final yr largely got here from their younger expertise quite than short-term signings, it wasn’t unreasonable again in March to consider this workforce may contend for a postseason berth. 5 months later, because the Reds look extra prone to play the function of spoiler in September than make it to October, now looks as if a advantageous time to think about the place they need to go from right here.

Step one could be to ask ourselves what have been the cheap expectations for the Reds in 2024. The ZiPS projections gave them an 80-82 report, however with sufficient uncertainty that if issues broke their manner, they might make a playoff push (35.1% odds). One man’s digital monstrosity isn’t the one truthful outlook, in fact, however our depth charts and Baseball Prospectus each had Cincinnati in an analogous place, at 79 wins.

Proper now, our depth charts and ZiPS have the Reds ending with a 77-85 report, a disappointing outcome, however not precisely an enormous miss relative to the projections above. If we’re going to determine the place the Reds go from right here, we first have to grasp how they bought up to now, and meaning wanting again on the classes they drew from their 82 wins final yr.

Primarily based on their offseason strikes, it seems the group determined – little question some unknown mixture of possession and the entrance workplace – that the overall method was to remain the course with their younger expertise and make mid-tier free agent signings to fill the workforce’s most urgent holes. The Reds made no vital trades over the winter, except you rely sending pitcher Daniel Duarte to the Rangers for money in January after designating him for project as vital. It wasn’t till almost Opening Day that the workforce made a transfer that might have an precise impact on the roster, choosing up Santiago Espinal from the Blue Jays within the aftermath of the Noelvi Marte suspension.

Excluding the Espinal commerce, the gamers signed in free company made up the whole lot of the exterior enhancements from 2023 to 2024. Suffice it to say, I used to be not a fan of the precise signings they made. To sum up my common emotions on the time, I assumed Jeimer Candelario was the precise participant for the mistaken workforce. It doesn’t make a lot sense for a workforce overloaded with third basemen to signal a participant who’s most beneficial as a 3rd baseman after which make him a mediocre first baseman. On the pitching facet, Emilio Pagán was a catastrophe ready to occur, and $13 million was quite a bit to offer Nick Martinez. Different pitcher signings made extra sense: Brent Suter was addition and Frankie Montas was an affordable gamble. The signings didn’t go precisely as I anticipated – some have been worse, some have been higher – however they definitely didn’t do a lot to enhance the membership.

As a bunch, the free brokers have carried out a bit worse than projected, however not alarmingly so. By the top of the yr, we mission these 9 free brokers to be value 5.1 WAR to the Reds, in comparison with the 7.3 WAR that was predicted. Two wins wouldn’t have salvaged Cincinnati’s season.

Accidents to a few of the younger expertise has definitely hindered the Reds. Matt McLain, who made a convincing case for being one of many workforce’s foundational abilities final yr, injured his shoulder within the spring and has but to play for Cincinnati this season. Christian Encarnacion-Strand didn’t get the prospect to make up for his chilly begin as a result of he underwent season-ending surgical procedure in July after fracturing his proper wrist in Might, and whereas it’s not an damage, the workforce went with out Marte for 80 video games after he was suspended for performance-enhancing medicine.

Nevertheless, the Reds additionally bought some spectacular breakouts on the flip facet to compensate. For as thrilling as they’re, Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene weren’t anticipated to be on this yr’s MVP and Cy Younger races, although that’s the place they stand in late August.

Furthermore, accidents alone didn’t cease Cincinnati in its tracks. I ran the numbers on time misplaced to accidents two weeks in the past, and the Reds ranked eleventh out of 30 groups in potential worth misplaced to damage, at 6.46 wins, proper consistent with the imply (6.5 wins) and a half-win greater than median (six wins).

That leaves us with the conclusion that the Reds didn’t wrestle this season as a result of they have been unfortunate; quite, they did so as a result of they have been a roughly .500 workforce by way of expertise and didn’t get fortunate. The trail ahead, then, is for possession and the entrance workplace to acknowledge this to allow them to work to enhance the workforce within the offseason as a substitute of staying the course once more and hoping for higher outcomes.

One a part of this yr’s plan — counting on the younger expertise — was justified and is value doing once more subsequent season, so long as the Reds reinforce their core with extra impactful veterans. Wanting on the projections for 2025 now versus the place they have been six months in the past, the Reds have misplaced a couple of wins, however their basis continues to be fairly stable.

(Rhett Lowder will not be included right here as a result of he didn’t get a preseason ZiPS projection this yr for 2025, so there could be nothing to match together with his present projection for subsequent season.)

Once I run some very preliminary projections for the NL Central in 2025, primarily based on gamers who’re below workforce management for subsequent season, the division appears quite a bit prefer it did on this yr’s the preseason projections, with all 5 groups roughly clustered across the .500 mark. That signifies that, with the precise strikes, the Reds may increase their playoff odds significantly this offseason.

Their plan to paper over holes this season by shifting third basemen round has not been profitable: The workforce ranks twenty fifth in outfield WAR and twenty eighth each in first base WAR and designated hitter WAR. Upgrading these positions with gamers who truly play them would go a great distance towards turning issues round. The rotation hasn’t been unhealthy this season, however it isn’t adequate because it’s at present constructed.

It’s value mentioning that the Reds did spend cash on their roster getting into this season, however they simply didn’t achieve this successfully. Signing mid-tier free brokers once more this offseason gained’t treatment the workforce’s woes. Sure, possession virtually definitely would balk on the concept of giving Juan Soto a clean examine to play for Cincinnati, however it might be much more preposterous to spend the identical quantity to signal six gamers who’re barely above substitute stage, which is type of what the Reds did final winter.

Wanting forward, despite the fact that the upcoming class of free brokers isn’t notably deep, Cincinnati’s entrance workplace must strike the precise steadiness of high quality and amount. Corbin Burnes is without doubt one of the greatest gamers obtainable, and the Reds ought to make a critical push to signal him. Blake Snell has been on such a roll after his tough begin to this season that it appears almost sure that he’ll choose out of his Giants contract. The Braves have but to increase Max Fried, so he appears certain at no cost company, too. And whereas they could fall quick, why shouldn’t the Reds go after Roki Sasaki if he will get posted this winter? In spite of everything, they made a bid to land Shohei Ohtani again when he was coming over from Japan.

On the offensive facet, Anthony Santander would give the Reds the official middle-of-the-order bat within the outfield that they at present lack, as would Tyler O’Neill and Teoscar Hernández

We at present have the Reds with a assured payroll of just below $50 million for 2025, although that’s not together with arbitration awards. They definitely have the flexibility to go after gamers who would make an actual distinction and nonetheless have a payroll effectively beneath that of the common workforce. A repeat of final winter’s method could be a catastrophe; extra of the identical will doubtless result in extra of the identical. The Reds fairly probably have extra upside than every other workforce within the NL Central, however the time’s come for them to select a route quite than treading water.