Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/8/24

Dan Szymborski: If you happen to can’t do the chat time, don’t do the chat crime

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know what meaning both, like most issues out of my mouth

the one that asks the lunch query: what’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing, this isn’t an consuming Thursday

Andy Dufresne: Are you bullish on Correa exceeding his projections now that the foot (and septum) are mounted?

Dan Szymborski: Mildly so? I are typically skeptical over “OK, this fixes the harm factor for good” issues

TomBruno23: Ben Hochman with a column for immediately’s P-D proclaiming Jordan Walker to be the following STL 20 HR 20 SB participant and I say to Benjamin it’d take Jordan Walker 40 SB Makes an attempt to get 20 SB.

Dan Szymborski: In all probability a bit of TOO unfavorable

Marlins Man: Jonah Bride had nice stats in triple-a. What’s stopping him from doing this at mlb stage?

Dan Szymborski: It’s laborious to say, however keep in mind, gamers are fairly unstable. I believe he’ll be OKish

Anon21: Max Fried: a Courageous in 2025? Atlanta has been gun-shy about free brokers typically and have allowed Freeman and Swanson to stroll the previous two offseasons.

Dan Szymborski: I really assume they’ll work it out

TomBruno23: Burnes was cool however let’s all the time keep in mind the acquisition for the O’s below new possession was Andrew Suarez. Ceaselessly a Cardinal.

The Oriole Chicken: Pickle’s Pub: Earlier than recreation, throughout recreation, after recreation, or all 3?  (I as soon as stayed on the resort proper behind it with my children after going to a recreation.  Professional tip: Ask for a room on the opposite facet of the resort.)

Dan Szymborski: I don’t often do locations proper close to the stadium

Dan Szymborski: I relatively go to Canton or Fells Level or go over and get some pit beef

SAWA: Is spring coaching (squeezed between the season and offseason) a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: Provided that you may eat it and it’s not hinged

Greg: Do you see a possible upside state of affairs within the Pirates rotation the place Gonzales and Perez present a serviceable first half of the season after which some mixture of Burrows/Brubaker coming back from harm plus Skenes/Jones name ups lead to a middle-of-the-pack full season rotation state of affairs for the Pirates?

Dan Szymborski: It’s POSSIBLE, however my cash is under common

Richard: The 12 months is 3034. The Baltimore Orioles have exceeded their ZiPS projections for over 1000 straight years. Dan Szymborski continues to serve his lifetime sentence for Oriole disrespect and slander.
*Orioles Twitter wakes up from its fever dream*

Dan Szymborski: I believe it’s a nightmare for folks in the event that they should hearken to me for a thousand years

Tim: Now that we’re a number of years faraway from COVID, did the shortened 2020 season affect projection programs in any manner?  It looks like the overall consensus is that the misplaced season was significantly laborious on youthful gamers within the minors, who by now can be getting into their age 25, 26 and so forth. season.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t actually spent sufficient time wanting on the long-term impact

TomBruno23: The Drive to 85 Wins within the NL Central actually couldn’t be extra thrilling. Oh child.

Royals and Witt: Doesn’t KC’s signing Witt type of reveal the small-market groups can, actually, afford to compete to maintain their gamers in the event that they’re keen to take the initiative?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Dan Szymborski: However some groups don’t wish to pay in danger OR forex

Chat Burglar: You’ll by no means chat me copper

Richard: Do you think about deGrom to have extra of an harm “reset” after his UCL surgical procedure? Ought to we anticipate harm prevalence to reflect different equally aged pitchers?

Dan Szymborski: At this level, I’ve zero thought what to anticipate

Who’s Fabio: Hey Dan, only for enjoyable, what do the AL ZiPS projected standings appear to be once you apply your whimsy as a substitute of logic and reasoning?  Are you able to pressure the non MLB workforce to type of compete?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll determine make my cats shut up after I’m on the cellphone lengthy earlier than I could make the A’s compete

Visitor: Does Jackson Merrill play within the majors this 12 months?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be stunned to see him pop In and possibly even quite a bit

Dan Szymborski: I’m below the impression that they have been a minimum of pondering of it LAST 12 months

Dan Szymborski: And I do know they’re giving him extra time within the outfield within the hopes of him getting some taking part in time within the majors rapidly

Dan Szymborski: and admittedly, given the state of their outfield, they might NEED him rapidly

Greg: Has there ever been a state of affairs in considered one of your ZiPS season simulations the place there was a 5-way tie for the division? NL central has potential!

Dan Szymborski: I’ll should verify. And I can’t verify yearly, however I’ll verify 2024

Tacoby Bellsbury: What transaction this winter do you most worry you’ll be fallacious about?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t THINK I’m fallacious, however I do fear about being fallacious about Reds transactions essentially the most, since they’re the followers which have essentially the most handy entry to homicide me

Zach: Do you publish intervals for workforce projections? Could be curious to know which groups ZiPS thinks have the most important (and smallest) vary of believable outcomes

Dan Szymborski: I’ll on the ultimate ones

website points: Undecided the place to ship this, however Fangraphs pages appear to be often sending me to a McAfee spam website recently. I’m not getting this concern on different web sites.

Dan Szymborski: We’ve had some studies of that, I do know David’s been wanting into it

Self Centered A-hole: So about my fantasy workforce.  I adopted a stinker and rebuilding.  How would you counsel I exploit zips projections on prospects to kind out the fellows which are growth/bust sorts (who i’d relatively guess on) than guys which are extra more likely to be large leaguers, however with a really restricted ceiling.  Thanks for serving to with my workforce as a result of my workforce is what’s REALLY necessary right here.  to me!

Dan Szymborski: These workforce pages have the eightieth/twentieth percentiles!

JDizzle: On the brand new Fangraphs projections…What do u make of the Braves at 26.5% successful the WS, whereas the Dodgers are solely at 15.5%? Thought that is likely to be nearer.

Dan Szymborski: Since I don’t DO these numbers myself, my perception is kinda restricted

Dan Szymborski: However the 10 proportion level bump in division successful likelihood helps that

Dan Szymborski: Becasue it’s a bfd to get that bye

JDizzle: Which OF’er do u like extra as a last-round decide in a Greatest Ball Factors league? Okay Carpenter or J Kelenic?

Dan Szymborski: Kelenic

TomBruno23: Grateful Useless 12.14.80 Lengthy Seashore CA going effectively with this chat. Berta don’t you come round right here…anymore…

Cat Latos: How do my cat buddies do?

Dan Szymborski: Justinian’s on my workplace windowsill watching a white squirrel. Final I noticed, Mercutio was asleep in the lounge, Cassiopeia asleep on the sofa within the again TV room upstairs, and Constantine was hanging out on the kitchen counter staking out when he will get meals

Champdo: so with all of the sturm und drang over the Tigers selecting Jobe over Mayer it looks like Jobe has became a fairly good prospect.

Dan Szymborski: Typically talking, it’s laborious to do TOO badly once you decide due to the uncertainty

Dan Szymborski: except you do just like the Pirates did with Moskos or one thing

Dealer Jerry’s: How a lot does the projection correction on Gregory Santos have an effect on your opinion on the commerce that despatched him to Seattle?

Dan Szymborski: None. He’s nonetheless rattling good

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t even notice he was main the league in fWAR within the projections since ZiPS is just partially FIP-based in its warfare

Mark: Spencer Steer greater than only a man this 12 months?

Dan Szymborski: I imply, he’s stable, however he’s probably not a star and has a comparatively low ceiling

Sandwich Snob: i used to go to Subway for sandwiches.  However they now use a hinge minimize the place there’s one piece of bread and the meat slapped inside.  I’m afraid this mirrors a scorching canine bun in most respects and all clever life on earth is aware of a scorching canine is NOT a sandwich.  Wouldn’t a Subway sandwich with a hinge minimize be equally NOT a sandwich?  I’d love a meatball sub, however I can’t eat that if it’s not a sandwich and also you’re the knowledgeable on that subject.  What’s your place?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s not a sandwich. BUt you may nonetheless take pleasure in a meatball non-sandwich

Moose: Are you taking the over or below in your creation’s projected win-loss report for the Mariners (85-77)?

Dan Szymborski: Over as a result of it’s not fairly .540

Mike Tyson: Designated Hitter: Which MLB participant do you assume may take me in a road battle?

Mike Tyson: Designated Hitter: and please inform me that Colton Cowser will head up a bundle that will get him to Chicago for Stop.

Dan Szymborski: None

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t assume the White Sox are sensible

romorr: Lots of people assume Elias goes to piecemeal a BP collectively over the season. Okay with that? Or do you assume we must be aggressive and attempt to add via FA, or a commerce.

Dan Szymborski: It’s tough to do this DURING the season

Dan Szymborski: The Rays often have their “dudes they discovered on a park bench that find yourself with a 3.50 ERA” guys a minimum of within the group by now

Purple: I get when non statistically inclined folks get mad at ZiPS output. However that O’s fan yesterday who was screaming variable points for not predicting ninetieth percentile outcomes as a baseline the final two years was uh, one thing

Dan Szymborski: Somebody with an economics background should be much less dumb.

Dadgut: Mariners playoff odds don’t appear to line up with what ZiPS is saying right here, with the Rangers doing considerably higher. Is it as a result of ZiPS weighs the final season extra closely than Steamer?

Dan Szymborski: Once more, that type of factor is actually laborious to grok

Dan Szymborski: I THINK I can seize depth higher than our FG generalized mannequin

Dan Szymborski: Which I ought to, as a result of mine is a nightmare to arrange that takes eternally

Dan Szymborski: and the FG methodology is made in order that it may possibly run any time Jason makes any change on the depth charts

Zach: I’m curious how ZiPS handles predictions for gamers like DeGrom and Scherzer, the place there’s each a variety of potential outcomes for IP this 12 months and presumably a variety of potential efficiency stage, and (I believe) comparatively little historic precedent.

Dan Szymborski: I imply, there’s plenty of knowledge in there about injured pitchers

Dan Szymborski: However ZiPS will largely verify that it’s horribly unsure

Gold Star: How do you assume Lux will do at SS for the Dodgers this season? Relatedly, is he LA’s starter there within the postseason?

Dan Szymborski: I believe he’ll be ample, however probably not one of many standouts. I imply you all the time should mood expectations after an harm 12 months, and I like Lux. However I don’t assume there are nice candidates on the market to interchange him

Dan Szymborski: Like would the Padres really do a late season Kim commerce to Dodgers? Undecided about that

TomBruno23: Taylor Swift broadcasts The Eras film streaming on Disney and refill over 12% immediately. Sorry, proper wing nut jobs.

Dan Szymborski: Perhaps I’m simply an previous, however I don’t get why folks care a lot about Swift both manner

Dan Szymborski: She’s a pop singer and has some well-liked albums. OK. So? And?

Dan Szymborski: I additionally don’t care who’s relationship who.

Dan Szymborski: I simply don’t care about issues which are both a) not my drawback or b) not my enterprise

Purple Sox: Will you watch the Netflix doc concerning the 2024 Purple Sox?

Dan Szymborski: Perhaps, if folks report it being attention-grabbing

Dan Szymborski: I watch sufficient baseball and speak sufficient baseball and baseball information that if it’s probably not one thing novel, I don’t want so as to add it

JDizzle: What’s the that means of life?

Dan Szymborski: Having fun with a really temporary existence in a largely chilly, darkish universe through which that’s a rarity

JDizzle: Any manner W Franco or T Bauer performs within the MLB this 12 months?

Dan Szymborski: Franco may if there was some sudden growth within the case that was favorable to him, however I don’t know what that will be

Dan Szymborski: As for Bauer, I believe groups are extraordinarily hesitant to get into that stuff

Dan Szymborski: Particularly since Bauer isn’t a man who’s keen to be quiet and under the radar

Szymby: If Taylor Swift has swifties can I be a Szymbie?

Dan Szymborski: I’m probably not large on fan tradition, truthfully

Dan Szymborski: That’s only a private factor

Dan Szymborski: Typically talking, I base my life on issues that amuse me, and reward doesn’t actually amuse me.

Insert Witty Identify Right here: re: Swift – it’s a company cash scheme. Folks can pay a number of cash for Swift associated something.

Dan Szymborski: I’m all for company cash schemes.

Dan Szymborski: As a few of you might keep in mind, to your chagrin, I’m a hardcore free market-er

Dan Szymborski: If she needs ot make a billion {dollars} promoting cash along with her head on it, good for her

Dan Szymborski: I simply don’t significantly *care* about it by hook or by crook

Dan Szymborski: Not my circus, not my clowns

anxious Yankees fan: Which considered one of Cortes, Rodon, Stanton, or Rizzo do you assume are more than likely to return to kind

Dan Szymborski: Cortes

Unhappy Angels Fan: Can the ZIPS machine compute whether or not the angels will ever make me joyful once more anytime this decade

Dan Szymborski: AGAIN? Have they made you cheerful just lately? I’m suspicious of the veracity of that assertion

nate: Will austin riley win an mvp

Dan Szymborski: He COULD, however he’ll most likely enter most seasons in his prime being just like the tenth more than likely

Joey Caltrain: Who can be the funniest baseball participant for the Pentagon to make use of for psyops and why?

Dan Szymborski: Zack Greinke

Dan Szymborski: as a result of he’d have all of the fucks to not give and break the op immediately

Jose Altuve: In mild of his extension, how probably is he to have one other mvp caliber season? Did his 90 recreation season of dominance damage his probabilities at 3000 due to the decrease variety of hits he had or assist his probabilities as a result of he demonstrated continued excessive stage play?

Dan Szymborski: The missed time is definitely extra regarding than the nice season is useful

Dan Szymborski: He could have one other one in him, but it surely should be fast

Dan Szymborski: the historical past of center infielder getting older isn’t good

Chip: What would your WAR-metric equal be when you have been to make a ZIPS mannequin for human pathogens?

Dan Szymborski: DAM: Deaths Above Misadventure

Homer: I believe it’d be stunning at this level if Fried stays with the Braves all issues thought-about – appears like a close to lock for one of many California groups

Tacoby Bellsbury: It’s fairly clear that chili is your least favourite pasta dish. What’s your most favourite pasta dish? And which major-leaguer would you evaluate that pasta dish to, and why?

Dan Szymborski: CHILI IS NOT A PASTA DISH

Dan Szymborski: Rowdy Tellez looks like a heaping pile of pasta

Dan Szymborski: I have a tendency to love ol’ bolognese

Ghinga: That is simply one of the vital quotable fig chats in latest reminiscence.

Dan Szymborski: I HAVENT ANSWERED ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT FIGS

Dan Szymborski: QUICK, GIVE ME QUESTIONS ABOUT FIGS AND I WILL ANSWER THEM ALL

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Fig Newtons or Issac Newton?

Dan Szymborski: Figs netwons as you may eat them

Joey Caltrain: What number of turkeys may a turkey fig turkey if a turkey fig may turkey figs?

Dan Szymborski: A pound of figs per pound of turkey per 12 months

Visitor: What number of forms of figs are there?

Dan Szymborski: Two: eaten and non-eaten

Fargum: what are generic fig newtons known as

Dan Szymborski: Most grocery shops I’ve seen simply name them fig bars

Dan Szymborski: Me, I’d go larger idea for my generic fig newtons

Dan Szymborski: possibly name them Fig Euclids or Fig Leibnizes

Dan Szymborski: Figonaccis!

Dan Szymborski: THE FIGONACCI NUMBER IS 140 CALORIES PER SERVING

liam: figs vs dates who would win

Dan Szymborski: I personally desire figs

Joey Caltrain: Figs or dates?

ZiPS me like considered one of your French women: When my spouse was pregnant she needed to eat a ton of figs and dates. She hates them now

Dan Szymborski: I’ve eaten plenty of figs and by no means grew to become pregnant!

Ghinga: Fg* sorry.  However on that observe, do you want figs? And do you like them dried or contemporary?

Dan Szymborski: I are inclined to desire dried

Figgy Pudding: Isn’t actually pudding, is it?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing the English say is a meals one thing really is

wheelhouse: Is there a manner for ZiPS to venture what % of the time the yankees’ first 5 starters mix for 139 begins, as ZiPS DC has them proper now? I do know that’s an harm projection and possibly extremely variable however that appears so excessive for a median projection

Dan Szymborski: Within the season sims, I really venture much less

Dan Szymborski: Typically talking, I’m extra pessimistic about pitcher well being than our depth charts

Chip: If you happen to have been to construct a ZIPS program for fruit, what would the WAR-metric equal be and what number of models would figs get?

Dan Szymborski: Deliciousness Shares

Ceaseless Turmoil Seething: Will the White Sox remorse turning down the Burnes+ bundle from the O’s?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Ceaseless Turmoil Seething: Was the Burnes transfer a begin or a cease to this O’s low season?

Dan Szymborski: In all probability a cease as there’s not a lot offseason left

Visitor: Two associated questions: 1. Is it truthful to say that the projections don’t do nearly as good of a job as they do the common season?2. Do you imagine that the most effective workforce all the time wins the World Collection?
Simply as with late final common season, each projection fashions and specialists agree that the Braves and Dodgers  seem like heavy favorites within the NL. But, neither made it to the NLCS. These are odds, in fact, and there’s plenty of room for variance, particularly within the present postseason baseball.

Dan Szymborski: Relies upon what you imply good job

Dan Szymborski: Clearly, the “common” projections are worse. However the chances work since projections rely for the uncertainty

Dan Szymborski: and a couple of: positively no!

Joey Caltrain: Overlook figs. As an SF fan, I’d wish to know the way you’re feeling about fog

Dan Szymborski: Fog’s often burned off by the point I get up

Ghinga: I simply noticed Brent Honeywell signed with the pirates, on an really baseball associated observe.  What’s your opinion of the final remaining main league screw baller?

Dan Szymborski: I’m unconvinced Devin Williams doesn’t throw a screwball

Dan Szymborski: however I’m all for screwballs

Danny Jansen’s Goggles: Devin Williams principally throws a screwball

Dan Szymborski: BEAT YOU TO IT BY LIKE SEVEN SECONDS

Visitor: Do you assume ZiPS can be higher at projecting baseball if there have been 1000 video games per season?

Dan Szymborski: I suppose, however you may’t even have the fellows play 1000 video games, it will be break up squad

Dan Szymborski: so virtually talking, there’s probalby a peak of 300 video games or so?

Altuve observe up: Thank You in your time! I’ve a query concerning the historical past of MI’s getting older poorly. Is that this a ability factor? As in they have a tendency to build up worth based mostly on pace, quickness, and make contact with expertise and people wane? If that’s the case, may Altuve lengthen his window of worth by persevering with to give attention to energy hitting and maybe shifting to DH extra typically? He may accrue much less worth however stay extra offensively efficient that manner

Dan Szymborski: Why is hard, the what is difficult sufficient!

Scotsman: Have you ever ever had Black Pudding Dan

Dan Szymborski: I’ve really

Dan Szymborski: its was weirdly gritty

Dan Szymborski: like they put a bit of sand in it for filler

Dan Szymborski: and it felt like I used to be chewing it eternally but it surely wasn’t doing anythign

David: Are there any FO’s that basically solely use predictive stats and ignore on discipline outcomes?

Dan Szymborski: Not that I’m conscious of

Dan Szymborski: however I can solely make educated guesses. I speak with most entrance workplaces to some extent, however they’re often cautious about WHAT they are saying

Danny Jansen’s Goggles: Are you as optimistic about Vladdy because the projections?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so. He’s nonetheless a fairly younger participant

Dan Szymborski: I imply he doesn’t flip 25 till subsequent month

Dan Szymborski: He’s not a 30 12 months previous who’s up and down

Babe Ruth’s Submerged Piano.: Am I a baseball relic price displaying within the Corridor of Fame? Sox followers had a principle that my elimination was integral to their breaking the curse!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume so as a result of pianos take up an enormous quantity of area

ZiPS me like considered one of your French women: Dan, so excited for prospect week this 12 months! Are you able to do extra ZiPS prospecting content material? Maybe some SSS projections for extra of the 2023 draftees? Go 200 deep (or a minimum of go deeper down the listing for pitchers)? It’s genuinely top-of-the-line articles yearly on the location and I neeeeeed extra! TY TY

Dan Szymborski: I may, however I attempt to maintain the ZIPS ONLY content material to some choose issues

Dan Szymborski: as a result of projections may be type of dry and I hate falling into the entice of writing ABOUT the projections relatively than USING the projections

Ghinga: Simply hold the piano on the ceiling.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve seen sufficient cartoons and Nineteen Thirties motion pictures to know that’s a nasty thought

Aniel Hernandez: How is Gary Sheffield not within the HOF?

Dan Szymborski: By not getting the 75% of votes required!

Dan Szymborski: I believe the vets will get him in

Chip: Who was the final man that confirmed up in your projections who made you assume ‘woah, that man remains to be taking part in?’

Dan Szymborski: Joe Beimel 2022

Dan Szymborski: I believe the final couple years of Joe SMith too

Dan Szymborski: I had kinda missed the Joe Beimel comeback story in 2022

Dan Szymborski: Effectively, 2021 tehcnically

Dan Szymborski: I simply throw within the each minor league pitcher who acquired a minimum of 10 IP at AA within the preliminary batch

Dan Szymborski: so after I noticed a forty five year-old Joe Beimel getting a projection for 2022, it was an actual WTF second

Visitor: meat-forward bolognese, like genuine ragu alla bolognese? or tomato sauce with meat?

Dan Szymborski: the previous

Aniel Hernandez: Who’re some gamers you assume can have a “breakout” 12 months this upcoming season?

Dan Szymborski: Hey, not giving out considered one of my commonplace preseason tropes! lol

Ken: Good afternoon, Dan. This has most likely been requested beforehand, so apologies, however I couldn’t discover the reply. Is there a purpose the numbers of projected gamers doesn’t match when the projections are run via the public sale calculator?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really know since I dont’ deal with that in any respect

Greg: Boy I shouldn’t have proven up late immediately, it appears like I missed so figging a lot…

Insert Witty Identify Right here: why do folks care a lot about folks in pajamas throwing a ball to somebody who tries to hit it with a bit of wooden?

Dan Szymborski: Hitting issues is enjoyable!

HappyFunBall: re: no consuming days. Definitely you drink one thing. Is it simply water or would you, say, permit for espresso? I’ve a major sufficient dependancy that I develop a headache round midday if I’ve not a had a cup. But additionally I’d assume the caffeine to be a pleasant assist in avoiding starvation

Dan Szymborski: I’ve this 64 ounce water jug that I drink each day

Dan Szymborski: Effectively, the water IN the jug

Dan Szymborski: I don’t convert the water dug right into a molten liquid after which drink it

Nolan: How a lot computing energy does it take to crunch a season’s price of ZiPS projections?

Dan Szymborski: If I exploit each my essential PC (Ryzen 5900X) and my secondary PC (i7-8700K) and break up up the workload, I can have a ZiPS batch run executed in about 30 hours

Aniel Hernandez: Greatest time of the season to go go to a ballpark?

Dan Szymborski: Early and late. I hate scorching, humid climate

Dan Szymborski: Even when I sit in a pleasant cool press field, I hate being within the scorching humid in any respect

Dan Szymborski: I frigging HATE summer season  climate

Joey Caltrain: If you happen to needed to remove one place on the diamond, what wouldn’t it be?

Dan Szymborski: Catcher as a result of it woudl be amusing to see how baseball discovered cease the ball and get it again to the pitcher

Dan Szymborski: You might need to place a type of bouncy internet issues behind house plate

Dan Szymborski: and it will be humorous to see a batter swing and miss at a 98 mph fastball after which fastball bounces off and shoots out in the direction of the pitcher

2013 NCAA worst participant: do you will have a robust opinion by hook or by crook on python vs R?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a programming man

Dan Szymborski: I’m sufficiently old that R wasn’t enormous but after I was in school (I’m 46 in June) and I took C++ to get that credit score

Dan Szymborski: I do know visible primary sorta

Dan Szymborski: and in school we used statistica and matlab largely

Dan Szymborski: And I like GUIs

Dan Szymborski: On that observe, when you guys give a fig about me getting the NL projections up tomorrow, I gotta head out

Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming everybody!