Feb. 8: The Astros spoke to Boras yesterday, GM Dana Brown stated Thursday (X hyperlink through Rome). Brown confused that there’s no timetable for extension talks however echoed Crane’s feedback that the workforce “will make an [extension] supply” to Bregman.
Feb. 7: The Astros locked up one franchise icon yesterday, maybe for the rest of his profession, when signing second baseman Jose Altuve to a five-year, $125MM deal that runs via his age-39 marketing campaign. Altuve’s extension standing has been a speaking level for the previous 12 months, because the eight-time All-Star had been slated to achieve free company this coming offseason. Third baseman Alex Bregman finds himself in an analogous situation, coming into the ultimate season of a nine-figure extension and on the cusp of free company. Nevertheless, talks with the 29-year-old Bregman are one other beast totally — a actuality proprietor Jim Crane acknowledged when chatting with Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle.
Whereas Crane candidly acknowledged that the group will “positively” make a long-term supply to Bregman earlier than he reaches the market, he additionally acknowledged that Bregman’s age makes him “a bit of completely different circumstance.” That’s one thing of an understatement. Bregman, who like Altuve is represented by the Boras Company, is at the moment slated to go into free company prematurely of his age-31 marketing campaign. Altuve would’ve turned 34 in Could of the primary season of a possible free agent deal.
That hole in age units vastly completely different market expectations — as does the distinction in place. In current offseasons, the market hasn’t rewarded pure second basemen at almost the identical ranges as third basemen. And with Bregman hitting the market previous to his age-31 season, a deal starting from seven to 9 years in size appears believable in a means that merely wouldn’t have been the case for Altuve coming into his age-34 season.
A glance at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker highlights the discrepancy. Previous to Altuve’s new deal, the biggest free-agent deal or extension inked by any second baseman up to now 5 years was Marcus Semien’s $175MM contract and Andres Gimenez’s $106.75MM extension. Flip the place to 3rd base, and free company has offered $300MM and $245MM offers to Manny Machado and Anthony Rendon, respectively, whereas the extension market has seen Austin Riley, Nolan Arenado and Rafael Devers all eclipse $200MM (and $300MM, in Devers’ case). When switching to age-based standards, Aaron Decide’s $360MM contract started along with his age-31 season, whereas no place participant contract starting at age 34 had topped Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM deal.
At as we speak’s press convention to formally announce the Altuve extension, Boras was requested about the potential of a Bregman extension. As one would anticipate, he didn’t rule something out, telling reporters: “Alex has made it clear that he’s open to listening to regardless of the Astros should say” (X hyperlink through Chandler Rome of The Athletic).
However, as we’ve beforehand famous right here at MLBTR and as Rome outlined concisely in his newest mailbag column (which Astros followers, particularly, will need to take a look at in full), the kind of dedication it’ll require to signal Bregman long-term isn’t one which the Astros have been keen to make up to now. Proprietor Jim Crane has by no means signed a participant for greater than a $150MM assure and has by no means given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year deal. Bregman, if he has a “typical” 12 months in step with his profession ranges, figures to be positioned to prime each of these figures by a large margin.
Even assuming Bregman rejects a qualifying supply — which looks like a given if he produces at his normal ranges — a seven-year deal would appear just like the naked minimal, and a lengthier pact could be thought-about seemingly. Bregman could be the clear prime third baseman on subsequent 12 months’s market and will wind up being thought-about the No. 2 or No. 3 general free agent behind Juan Soto. He’ll be in a tier alongside stars like Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Willy Adames, amongst others, in that regard. Boras touched on this as we speak, telling the Astros beat that due to the age at which they signed their earlier contracts and the age at which they’re (or had been, in Altuve’s case) scheduled to hit free company, that Bregman faces “a extra regular free company dynamic” than Altuve would have (X hyperlink through Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).
From a payroll standpoint, the Astros may actually make a Bregman deal work — even after inking Altuve. Roster Useful resource tasks a bit greater than $117MM in assured cash on the 2025 books. Including in a brand new Bregman contract and arbitration raises for stars Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez may add as a lot as $65-75MM to that quantity, however Houston is ready to trot out a $240MM payroll in 2024 and can exceed the posh tax threshold this 12 months. Extending Bregman would imply committing to having 4 gamers — Bregman, Altuve, Hader and Alvarez — all locked up via at the very least the 2028 season, however the frontloaded nature of Altuve’s contract will imply he’s solely incomes a $10MM wage in every of these seasons. As such, it’d be loads believable to have Altuve ($10MM), Hader ($19MM), Alvarez ($26MM) and Bregman and have that quartet account for effectively shy of $100MM.
An extension for Bregman shouldn’t be waved off as a sheer impossibility, but it surely’d take a change within the membership’s contractual norms for one to return collectively this spring. Houston followers can level to the truth that the Josh Hader signing represented simply that form of philosophical shift, because it was a a lot bigger deal than Crane has usually been keen to decide to a free agent, however a Bregman extension would signify a fair bigger departure from prior norms, given the {dollars} at stake.