Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Is a Celebrity Once more

In case you’re talking with somebody from Toronto who doesn’t observe baseball, they’ll in all probability inform you two issues concerning the Blue Jays. The primary is that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the very best participant on the staff. The second is that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sucks.

The primary level is fairly correct, and it’s completely true this season — extra on that in a second. The second level is categorically false, however alas, such is the curse of superstardom. The participant who has his face on posters throughout town goes to get loads of credit score when issues go proper, however he’s additionally going to shoulder an extreme quantity of criticism when issues go mistaken. Whenever you’re the man starring within the Uncrustables adverts, followers anticipate a crust-free efficiency on the sector, too.

Guerrero made a reputation for himself in 2021, which was no simple job contemplating the man with whom he shares his identify. But, with 48 dwelling runs, 111 RBI, and a runner-up end for AL MVP, Guerrero gave the typical Torontonian a cause to speak about baseball for the primary time since José Bautista was punched within the face. Then, Guerrero spent the following two years corroding his golden fame. To be clear, nobody who is aware of what they’re speaking about ever thought he was a foul ballplayer — heck, he set a brand new file for the highest wage ever awarded in an arbitration listening to this previous offseason — however his efficiency actually went downhill. If all you had been evaluating him to was the very best model of himself (like that motivational poster in your gymnasium at all times tells you to do), he actually was fairly disappointing final 12 months:

All that’s to say, the criticism Guerrero confronted wasn’t completely unwarranted, even when it was overblown. The one factor the Blue Jays wanted final season was a star-caliber efficiency from their star-caliber participant. Their pitching workers completed fifth within the majors in WAR, and their protection received the AL staff Gold Glove. The offense, nonetheless, got here up brief too usually, ending 14th in baseball in runs scored. In 2023, a celebrity season from Guerrero was all of the Blue Jays had been lacking. This 12 months, in a bitter accident, it’s nearly all they’ve.

Certainly, whereas Toronto sits in final place within the AL East, Guerrero ranks among the many high 10 AL place gamers with 4.0 WAR. His 167 wRC+ is fifth greatest amongst certified batters in both league, trailing solely Aaron Choose, Juan Soto, Bobby Witt Jr., and Shohei Ohtani. He additionally ranks among the many high 5 hitters in OBP (.394), wOBA (.404), xwOBA (.414), and wRAA (39.5). His bat is each bit as potent because it was when he burst onto the scene. If he retains this up, phrase will finally trickle all the way down to the non-baseball followers within the GTA that Guerrero, the very best participant on the staff, not sucks (despite the fact that he by no means actually did).

In the end, whether or not Guerrero thrives or flounders, he could by no means escape comparisons to his 2021 efficiency. Final 12 months, celebrity Vladdy was lengthy gone. This 12 months, he’s again in all his glory. With that in thoughts, I’d like to supply my very own comparability that’s hopefully just a little extra significant than the “It’s so over/We’re so again” meme. Whereas his complete offensive stats (i.e. wRC+) are nearly similar in 2021 and ’24, I’m within the small variations which have led him to a different celebrity season.

For one factor, post-All-Star break Guerrero is at the moment having fun with a run in contrast to something we’ve ever seen from him earlier than:

To place the numbers on that graph into perspective, the distinction between Guerrero over his previous 25 video games and Guerrero’s greatest 25 video games at another stretch in his profession is 63 factors of wRC+. That’s the distinction between Barry Bonds (profession 173 wRC+) and Adam LaRoche (110 wRC+). That’s nuts.

Bonkers comps apart, I’d take the precise numbers with a grain of salt, since we don’t have an excellent sense of the park elements at TD Ballpark and Sahlen Area, the place the Blue Jays performed their dwelling video games for the primary 4 months of the 2021 season. All the identical, it’s exhausting to disclaim that Guerrero is taking part in the very best baseball of his profession proper now. Solely 4 different gamers have had the next OPS throughout any 25-game stretch (restricted to a single season) over the previous 10 years: Choose (2022, ’24), Ohtani (’23), Bryce Harper (’15), and Giancarlo Stanton (’17). Often when a man hits like this, even in such a small pattern measurement, it’s nearly a positive wager that he’s on his approach to profitable an MVP.

On the purpose of small pattern sizes, I ought to make clear this isn’t a sustainable run for Guerrero. If frequent sense couldn’t inform you that, then his .432 BABIP ought to. Nonetheless, that doesn’t imply he hasn’t earned his success. This 100-PA rolling xwOBA graph appears to be like an entire lot just like the 25-game rolling wRC+ graph I included above:

One cause Guerrero’s numbers are so eye-popping as of late is that he has hit 11 dwelling runs for the reason that All-Star break. That matches his highest dwelling run output from any 25-game stretch in 2021. But, he had way more of these stretches that season, ending with a serious league-leading 48 dwelling runs. This 12 months, he’s on tempo for a mere 33 bombs. Certainly, his dwelling run manufacturing might be the largest distinction between his offensive profile in 2021 and ’24. Nonetheless, that distinction may not be as significant because it seems.

Firstly, Guerrero crushed 11 dwelling runs over 21 video games at TD Ballpark in Dunedin and added one other 10 over 23 video games at Sahlen Area in Buffalo. That’s a 77-homer tempo over a full season… at a few minor league stadiums. To be honest, Guerrero crushed one other 10 bombs in 36 video games as soon as the Blue Jays returned to Rogers Centre, which continues to be a 45-homer tempo. Nonetheless, it’s vital to remember the fact that dwelling runs had been up throughout the league in 2021 in comparison with ’24. What’s extra, the Blue Jays made vital renovations to Rogers Centre which have made the ballpark far much less homer-friendly over the previous two seasons. For what it’s price, Guerrero is on tempo for 17 homers on the highway this 12 months, which might match his output from 2021.

It’s additionally price mentioning {that a} ton of the house runs Guerrero has not hit have landed for doubles as a substitute; the slugger has climbed down doubles to dingers mountain. Whereas his dwelling run output is down in comparison with 2021, he’s on tempo for 78 extra-base hits, which might match his complete from that season. Certainly, he’s solely 4 doubles away from setting a brand new profession excessive. As soon as once more, this isn’t completely sustainable — Guerrero’s .225 BABIP on fly balls is greater than twice the league common — however you may’t have a look at his .585 xSLG and counsel he hasn’t earned his success. Guerrero stays a severe energy menace, even when he’s hitting fewer dwelling runs.

One final notable distinction between Guerrero’s offensive numbers in 2021 and ’24 comes by means of the sorts of pitches he’s hitting. In 2021, Guerrero feasted on four-seam fastballs — greater than another hitter within the brief historical past of Baseball Savant’s pitch arsenal stats (’19-present). Per Savant, he offered 34 runs of worth in opposition to four-seamers that season. He additionally added one other six runs of worth in opposition to sinkers. In 2024, Guerrero is seeing heaters at the same charge, however he has not been practically as productive in opposition to them. He has a +6 RV in opposition to four-seamers and a impartial 0 RV in opposition to sinkers. His numbers in opposition to fastballs (not together with cutters) are nonetheless above common, however they’re a far cry from what they had been in 2021:

Alternatively, his numbers in opposition to all different pitches are the very best they’ve ever been:

All issues thought of, it doesn’t actually matter which pitch sorts a batter succeeds in opposition to so long as he’s producing the identical worth within the mixture. Nonetheless, Guerrero’s robust efficiency in opposition to non-fastballs means he has been much less weak in pitcher-friendly counts this 12 months, and I’m wondering if that has given him the liberty to be just a little choosier together with his swings. He’s swinging at fewer pitches within the zone this 12 months, resulting in extra referred to as strikes. When he chooses to hack, nonetheless, his outcomes are higher than ever. His run worth of +11 on swings this 12 months ranks fifth within the majors and is already tied together with his +11 RV on swings from 2021. He’s one in every of solely 22 certified batters (out of 300) with a constructive run worth on swings. Unsurprisingly, his success on swings has performed an enormous position in his general success.

The one disappointing variations between Guerrero’s two greatest seasons have come not on the plate, however within the different points of his recreation. Sadly, he’s placing up among the worst baserunning and defensive metrics of his profession. As you may think, that’s actually saying one thing. Guerrero ranks final amongst first basemen in Fielding Run Worth and third worst amongst all gamers in BsR. Thus, he’s “solely” on tempo for five.3 WAR, a full win lower than his 6.3 WAR in 2021. It’s not the top of the world, however even for a bat-only first baseman, there’s a significant distinction between poor protection and baserunning and atrocious protection and baserunning:

We’ve written fairly a bit right here at FanGraphs (each instantly and not directly) about how Guerrero might get again to his peak type. They had been all good concepts — hit fewer pitches however hit them tougher, restrict groundballs, pull extra fly balls within the 95-105 mph EV bucket — however finally, Guerrero did it his personal approach. He’s making extra contact, hitting extra grounders, and pulling lower than ever. He’s additionally utilizing his outstanding uncooked energy and delightful swing to hit plenty of baseballs and hit them silly exhausting. The outcomes converse for themselves. He could look just a little completely different, however in nearly all of the ways in which matter, the 2021 model of Vladdy is again.