Within the midst of a season that has been an unmitigated disappointment for Blue Jays followers the place the membership has fallen to final place within the AL East and bought off items on the commerce deadline, membership president and CEO Mark Shapiro spoke to reporters together with Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson in regards to the membership’s plans for 2025 and past.
Shapiro didn’t mince phrases whereas describing the group’s failures this season and acknowledged that the group’s efficiency this yr has represented the “largest disconnect from expectations” he’s overseen throughout his tenure on the helm of the membership, which started in August of 2015. At the same time as he known as this season the “largest disappointment” of his time in Toronto, nevertheless, Shapiro appeared disinclined to entertain parting methods with GM Ross Atkins. Whereas he prefaced his feedback by emphasizing that he doesn’t touch upon his workers’ job statuses whereas the season is ongoing, he additionally made a normal case for continuity inside the group:
“I’m an enormous believer in stability and continuity and people are aggressive benefits in skilled sports activities,” Shapiro mentioned, as relayed by Matheson. “Reacting and altering don’t essentially imply enchancment. We have to be higher. Now we have to be higher. Stability, continuity and making changes are the place I’m targeted proper now.”
Parting methods with Atkins, who has been the membership’s GM in every of Shapiro’s 9 seasons on the helm in Toronto, would definitely be thought-about a transfer away from that message of continuity and stability. The Jays have seen some success with the duo of Shapiro and Atkins making selections, as they’ve has made the playoffs in 4 of their 9 seasons with the membership. The group solely superior past the Wild Card spherical of the postseason as soon as, nevertheless, and that got here all the best way again in 2016 throughout their first season with the membership.
Since then, the Blue Jays rebuilt and constructed a younger core centered round stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette earlier than supplementing that group with veterans akin to George Springer and Kevin Gausman. Stable as that technique could have appeared on paper, nevertheless, the outcomes on the sphere have left one thing to be desired for a membership that has didn’t win the aggressive AL East even as soon as whereas going 423-338 because the 2019 season the place Guerrero made his MLB debut. Now, each Guerrero and Bichette are coming into their closing seasons of arbitration eligibility, and the potential of dropping one or each in free company subsequent winter looms as a definite risk.
After all, it’s attainable that Toronto might ink one or each of their stars to an extension earlier than they go away city. Shapiro declined to touch upon the potential of extending particular gamers, although he did acknowledge that it’s “definitely simpler” to construct a championship-level roster with gamers of Guerrero’s and Bichette’s caliber roster within the fold “for prolonged intervals of time.”
An extension for both participant would certainly require a substantial monetary funding, nevertheless. Guerrero specifically has re-established himself as one of many league’s premiere offensive abilities this yr with a incredible .317/.391/.537 slash line, 29 doubles, and 22 homers in 112 video games this yr. With the slugging celebrity set to hit free company following his age-26 season subsequent yr, he seems to be in good place to money in on a major payday in free company.
Alternatively, Bichette has handled accidents and under-performance this yr as he’s been restricted to 79 video games whereas slashing simply .223/.276/.321. With that being mentioned, he’ll be coming off his age-27 marketing campaign when he’s anticipated to achieve free company subsequent winter and that mixture of youth, a robust offensive observe document (he was a profession 127 wRC+ hitter coming into the 2024 marketing campaign), and his means to play a premium defensive place ought to enable the shortstop to do fairly effectively in free company so long as he rebounds to one thing nearer to his earlier profession ranges in 2025.
Happily, the membership figures to have loads of payroll flexibility this winter with which they will look to signal the pair long-term whereas retooling the remainder of the roster. The membership’s closing payroll is predicted to land (per RosterResource) simply over $218MM, with their estimated payroll for luxurious tax functions sitting simply over $241MM. That’s a bit of greater than $4MM over the primary threshold of the aggressive stability tax, though it’s value noting that publicly obtainable payroll estimates are simply that. For his half, Shapiro prompt (per Matheson) that the Jays presently count on to return in below that $237MM threshold although he did acknowledge that the state of affairs is “fluid.”
No matter the place the membership finally ends up when it comes to closing luxurious tax calculations this yr, they’ve loads of cash coming off the books this winter. RosterResource signifies that they’ve simply over $124MM dedicated for 2025, and whereas arbitration raises for gamers like Guerrero and Daulton Varsho determine to push that determine up considerably—the Jays’ 2024 arb class value the membership simply over $44MM—even that would depart the membership with a payroll within the $170MM vary, giving them round $50MM to work with this winter in the event that they match this yr’s payroll in 2025. Shapiro was obscure about Toronto’s actual plans when it comes to payroll for subsequent yr, nevertheless. Whereas he did say that he doesn’t count on there to be a “large-scale pullback” in payroll, he additionally notes that the tough season has impacted the membership on the enterprise facet of issues.
After all, long-term offers for Bichette and Guerrero wouldn’t essentially affect 2025’s payroll on condition that Bichette is already below contract for $17.5MM subsequent yr whereas Guerrero is already anticipated to command a hefty wage in his closing journey by means of arbitration. That being mentioned, if the Jays have their sights set on retaining both or each of their homegrown duo long-term, it’s straightforward to see that impacted the membership’s willingness to signal different top-of-the-market abilities to long-term offers this winter. That might create a sophisticated puzzle for the membership as they try and return to competition subsequent yr whereas balancing an obvious need to retain Guerrero and Bichette long-term in opposition to the necessity for important upgrades to the present roster.