CJ Abrams is among the blossoming stars in at present’s sport. Getting into play Friday, the 23-year-old shortstop who not too long ago made his first All-Star look is batting .260/.333/.467 with 15 dwelling runs, 16 stolen bases, a 122 wRC+, a .344 wOBA, and 1.9 WAR over 422 plate appearances. Throughout the first month of what’s turned out to be his breakout season, I wrote about Abrams’ stellar offensive begin. A couple of month-long hunch adopted, however he bounced again in late Might and is exhibiting that his plus-offensive profile is right here to remain.
Now in his third season, Abrams is proving he might be the centerpiece that the Nationals can construct round. Past his bat, his aggressive baserunning and pace make him one of the vital dynamic younger gamers within the sport. Final 12 months, regardless of his inconsistencies on the plate, Abrams was a menace on the paths. Due to his 28.6 ft/sec dash pace (82nd percentile), based on Baseball Savant, he was value +3 runs on the bases; he swiped 47 baggage and had a 9.2 BsR.
This 12 months, Abrams has been simply as quick, however not less than based on BsR, he’s not a plus baserunner. (Baseball Savant says he’s been value +1 run on the bases this 12 months, which ranks 71st; he was no. 23 on final 12 months’s leaderboard.) That’s as a result of he’s been caught stealing 10 occasions already, with 5 of them coming through pickoffs, plus one other pickoff that didn’t come on an tried steal.
In 2023, Abrams went 47-for-51 on stolen base makes an attempt. If he took off, the chances had been in his favor. Pitchers weren’t exposing him for taking too massive of leads or being overly aggressive. This 12 months, his precipitous drop to 16-for-26 has been staggering. When a participant who was so not too long ago a terrific basestealer runs right into a hunch like this, it warrants a deep dive into understanding what precisely is occurring. There are just a few elements of the steal that we’ve got to concentrate to when attempting diagnose such a problem: the lead, the leap, and the state of affairs. Let’s undergo every bit and discover out what’s gone unsuitable for Abrams. Here’s a compilation of his pickoffs this 12 months:
None of those look significantly nice. He was both off steadiness or out by a very good margin on nearly each play. We are able to hint a few of this again to his leads, so let’s begin there. There are two essential methods to take a lead in opposition to a lefty in case you are enthusiastic about making an attempt to steal second. You possibly can take a traditional 12-foot lead like Abrams did in opposition to Sean Manaea after which run on the pitcher’s first motion (as quickly because the pitcher lifts his leg). Or, you may take a bigger, one-way result in probably draw a throw over and get a really feel for the pitcher’s pickoff transfer.
For the primary one, you wish to keep shut sufficient to the bag so the pitcher doesn’t decide you off, however you wish to get far sufficient on the market that you’ve a very good likelihood to be secure at second even when he does throw over; as quickly because the pitcher lifts his leg, you break for second. For the one-way lead, you’re an additional step or two towards second, however you aren’t making an attempt to steal on the upcoming pitch. As an alternative, you set all of your weight in your left foot, towards first base, so you may dive again safely if the pitcher makes an attempt to select you off. If the pitcher doesn’t throw over, you’re timing up his supply so you will get a greater leap in the event you determine to steal later. That doesn’t seem like what Abrams was doing within the video above. All thrice he has been picked off by a lefty this season have come early within the rely, twice on the second pitch of the plate look and as soon as on the primary pitch.
Within the 1-0 rely in opposition to Manaea, Abrams took a normal 12-foot lead. He tried to go on first motion however realized he would’ve been lifeless to rights, so he hesitated into shuffles as an alternative. He ought to have simply saved going and compelled Pete Alonso to make a play. This was the obvious psychological mistake of the three. Towards left-handers Kirby Snead and Alex Vesia, Abrams went on first motion, however as a result of every pitcher anticipated him to go and was well-prepared to throw over, the protection caught him simply. As a pitcher, you recognize Abrams is an aggressive runner, however why in these two instances was it really easy? Properly, this can be a good time to level to Abrams’ tendencies.
Eight of his 16 swipes this season got here on the primary pitch, and of his six pickoffs, 4 had been on the primary pitch. If you happen to’re a pitcher trying to management Abrams’ aggression, do it early. For lefties, it’s even simpler to execute since you’re dealing with him as he leads off first. This goes again to the situational facet I introduced up earlier than. Pitchers are sensible, and these are the precise varieties of tidbits they change into conscious of as they prep for a very good basestealer. Mix the early counts with pitchers being extra keen to throw over in the event that they haven’t but used their allotted disengagements, and you’ve got powerful recipe for fulfillment. A possible answer right here is for Abrams to attend for deeper counts earlier than attempting to steal.
The fitting-handed pitchers in these clips are equally ready for Abrams to run early. He usually makes use of the vault lead in opposition to righties. As a reminder, the vault lead is once you take your main lead at about 9 or 10 ft as an alternative of 12. You’re taking your similar athletic stance and shuffle about 2-3 ft simply because the pitcher lifts his leg. The momentum out of your vault helps you speed up into your dash faster than you’d with a conventional, static lead, albeit with dangers. The important thing to a profitable vault lead shouldn’t be the dimensions of your shuffle; it’s your timing. If you happen to enterprise too far out earlier than or after the shuffle, otherwise you mistime your vault and are within the air when the pitcher disengages to throw over, you danger getting picked off.
At occasions this season, Abrams has made each errors on his vault leads: Both his main leads or his shuffles are too giant. The vault lead is extra technical than bodily, based mostly extra on mechanics than reflexes and pure pace. Abrams is quick sufficient and reacts fast sufficient to steal bases with a conventional lead in opposition to favorable matchups, so if I had been him, I might briefly abandon the vault lead and work on getting the basics down once more earlier than bringing it again in video games.
Earlier than letting you go, I additionally wish to have a look at the performs on which Abrams was thrown out by a catcher to see if these caught stealings had been due to unhealthy choices, poor jumps, or good protection. Here’s a fast reel:
Off the rip, there are three performs that stick out. If you happen to’re going to try steals in opposition to Gabriel Moreno and Patrick Bailey – maybe the 2 finest throwers within the sport – it’s a must to decide your spots correctly. Within the Arizona sport, the Nationals had been up two runs and the rely was 0-2, offering a very good alternative to run and attempt to keep away from a double play; in opposition to the Giants, my guess is he wished to get into scoring place with two outs. These are legitimate sufficient causes to run regardless of the poor matchups and should not corresponding to the pickoff errors.
Within the sport in opposition to the Crimson Sox, righty Brayan Bello, who has an especially fast slide step, was on the bump. Even runners who’re quicker than Abrams would have bother reaching second safely when a pitcher delivers a 96-mph heater in the course of the zone on a slide step. And maybe not surprisingly, this got here on the primary pitch of the at-bat.
On the primary play within the clip, in opposition to the Rockies, Abrams tried to swipe third with a left-handed batter up. Even with out seeing the standard of the lead that Abrams took, this was a nasty resolution. Dakota Hudson by no means took his eye off of Abrams earlier than he delivered his pitch, making it way more tough for him to get a very good leap. On high of that, catchers love when this occurs as a result of with a lefty batting they’ve a transparent throwing lane to 3rd base; when righties are hitting, catchers have a harder play as a result of they should step again and across the batter earlier than firing. Even with an inaccurate throw from catcher Jacob Stallings, Abrams was canned.
Abrams is an aggressive runner. With out his aggressions, he wouldn’t be capable to steal practically 50 bases in a season like he did final 12 months. This isn’t one thing you wish to take away from him. Nonetheless, he does have to be taught from these errors so he can use his pace and aggression extra successfully. Most of those pickoffs and unsuccessful steals resulted from some a mix of being predictable and getting too jumpy. The excellent news is he’s gifted sufficient to make the required changes. As soon as that occurs, we’ll get to see a way more full model of Abrams, one who can swipe 40 baggage at a excessive clip and pepper the gaps with line drives.