Catching up on the Zips High 100 Prospects

All-Star Week is the standard midpoint of the baseball season — although not the mathematical one – and with the MLB Draft including a bunch of recent prospects to the minors, it’s an excellent time to look again on the ZiPS prospect listing from this previous winter. Some prospects have excelled within the majors and a few, nicely, not a lot, however that’s why we name them prospects and never certainties. Decoding minor league statistics correctly has at all times been a problem, nevertheless it’s extra so nowadays with an uncommon divergence in offensive ranges between the majors and excessive minors, particularly the Triple-A leagues. An .850 OPS that will have been spectacular within the Worldwide League a couple of years in the past isn’t that mouth-watering nowadays, whereas an ERA round 4 is unusually promising. ZiPS, naturally, has to translate minor league efficiency as a part of predicting how gamers will fare within the majors, and now that we’ve got public Statcast knowledge for the minors, there’s much more to dig into in 2024.

For every participant in final winter’s ZiPS High 100, I’m itemizing fast strains for his or her translated minor league efficiency (lower-case m), any main league efficiency, and lastly, a mixture of the 2 to get one 2024 line (famous with a c).

As I’ve mentioned earlier than, Jackson Holliday may really be underneathrated at this level. I obtained lots of complaints concerning the “bearish” .255/.341/.381 projection for him coming into the season, however ZiPS (and I) shared the assumption that folks have been coming too rapidly on him. He’s nonetheless extraordinarily more likely to be a incredible participant, however contemplating he’s a 20-year-old who blasted by 4 ranges of the minors, it’s not the weirdest factor ever that he’d see a consolidation season. That .336/.332 OBP/SLG isn’t actually that far behind his projection, particularly contemplating ZiPS anticipated the most important league offensive atmosphere to be higher than it has been this season.

Coby Mayo has had the higher season however nonetheless wouldn’t come near passing Holliday if I rerolled the complete high prospects proper now. James Wooden really has surpassed Holliday, although that can solely final till he exceeds the rookie most and sheds his prospect standing; he was legitimately wonderful within the minors this 12 months. The sheen has come off each Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter just a little bit, whereas Jackson Chourio and Masyn Winn have carried out about as marketed. As movers go, Adael Amador and Pete Crow-Armstrong seem like the 2 who will take the most important hit of this group earlier than subsequent 12 months’s rankings (if PCA hasn’t graduated). There hasn’t been as a lot ink about Emmanuel Rodriguez as I’d have anticipated this 12 months, even earlier than he injured his thumb final month. The Texas League, not like the Triple-A leagues, is a reasonably low offensive atmosphere, with a league OPS of simply .705, so his precise 1.100 OPS is fairly spectacular.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga have each carried out in addition to ZiPS anticipated. Whereas that’s hardly going out on a limb for Yamamoto, whom everybody appreciated, ZiPS was in on Imanaga very early. Paul Skenes, in fact, has been fabulous, much more so than his top-notch translations from April and Could. I’d solely describe two of the pitchers on this listing as unmitigated disappointments up to now in 2024, at the least from a projections standpoint: Each Ricky Tiedemann and Dylan Lesko will take fairly huge hits within the subsequent rankings. Andrew Painter will slide fairly a bit as nicely, however it could be fairly churlish to name a pitcher a disappointment for being injured.

Amongst this tranche of prospects, Brooks Lee is having arguably essentially the most spectacular 2024, and he’s continued to hit since his call-up a few weeks in the past. Between Lee and the Twins’ taking Kaelen Culpepper with their first-round decide on Sunday, Edouard Julien may get misplaced within the shuffle rapidly in Minnesota; if I have been a GM of a workforce in want of a second baseman, I’d give the Twins name to see if he can rule once more on my membership. Anyway, I really anticipated ZiPS to come back round faster on Dylan Crews, however he’s not likely torching minor league pitching as I believed he would. Davis Schneider has lengthy been a ZiPS favourite, however he’s cooled off since a scorching run proper after he earned extra enjoying time by the method of elimination in Toronto’s struggling lineup.

Jett Williams inevitably will drop significantly after a wrist damage ruined his 2024 season, and Kevin Alcantára was one of many huge ZiPS droppers when it comes to future WAR. Whereas Samuel Basallo is just not matching his breakout 2023 season, he’s nonetheless a 19-year-old catcher, so he gained’t sag within the rankings too far.

Taking a look at this group’s long-term projections, it’s virtually surprising how little motion there’s been within the long-term projections. Of those 21 pitchers, solely three have had their five-year projected WAR transfer by greater than two WAR. The primary is Drew Thorpe, who was stable for Birmingham, and his poor Okay/BB ratios within the majors up to now in all probability aren’t consultant of his skills. The opposite is a a lot much less heralded prospect, Thomas Harrington of the Pirates, a relatively Doug Fister-y prospect (is {that a} authorized adjective), who depends on management and changeups. The excessive minors could be merciless for the sort of pitcher, however he’s survived at the least one of many jumps, to Double-A, which improves his long-term outlook. On the flip facet, Mick Abel’s command has continued to deteriorate, with each a seven-walk and a six-walk outing within the final month. It will be a shock if he didn’t fall fully off the ZiPS High 100 for 2025.

It hasn’t proven but within the majors, however Kyle Manzardo’s minor league efficiency this 12 months earlier than his call-up worn out the true “meh” feeling that ZiPS had about his 2023. Submit-suspension Noelvi Marte has been fairly awful, although we’ve got sufficient knowledge from gamers after drug suspensions to dismiss any histrionics that he’s struggled due to the shortage of efficiency enhancement. Final 12 months was largely the season that ZiPS got here round on Colson Montgomery after being later than virtually everybody/every part else, and the outcome has been just a little how I really feel after consuming a scorching canine from a fuel station. Joey Ortiz is the large winner on this group, contending for the NL Rookie of the Yr award, and Kyle Teel should see a bump in subsequent 12 months’s prospect rankings as nicely. Like Basallo, Ethan Salas’ bat has backslid a bit, nevertheless it’s not price obsessing over how a teenage catching prospect is hitting. Andy Pages hasn’t matched his minor league begin this 12 months, however he’s been at the least respectable.

Heston Kjerstad simply missed the general ZiPS gainers listing, but given Baltimore’s crowded offense, he’s nonetheless had bother getting a full serving of plate appearances within the majors. If the O’s land Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet, Kjerstad must be one of many names more likely to be included, particularly for the Tigers contemplating they’re much extra motivated so as to add main league-ready expertise than the hopeless Sox. ZiPS was as huge fan of Michael Busch, a kind of low-ceiling, high-floor hitters with none actual positional worth, and he’s carried out about as nicely for the Cubs as may have moderately been anticipated.

ZiPS hoped for extra energy from Matt Shaw, and he’ll in all probability drop from the highest 100 except his trajectory modifications once more. However he gained’t drop so far as Luisangel Acuña, who has solely a 73 wRC+ in Triple-A, although the Mets don’t really appear upset along with his efficiency. At the same time as offense is up throughout Triple-A, Angel Martínez was having a dynamite season earlier than he was known as up; you shouldn’t dismiss a 147 wRC+ at Triple-A with out a fairly compelling purpose. He’s additionally continued to hit within the majors, and I now really feel kinda responsible that I didn’t give ZiPS some new RAM to reward it for being so excessive on him coming into the season.