Showdown on the Shed: Previewing the 2024 House Run Derby

For many who benefit from the loudest, easiest, most dopamine-drenched type of baseball, immediately is a big day. It’s Derby day, and even higher, the foolish hats usually are not necessary. The MLB House Run Derby takes place at 8:00 p.m. ET at Globe Life Discipline in Arlington, Texas. What the Costco-coded ballpark lacks in aesthetics it makes up for in bulk. In line with Statcast’s park elements, Globe Life yields extra residence runs than the common park each for righties (120) and for lefties (110), so we must be in for a present. You’ll be able to watch on ESPN, however in case you’re a nerd – and also you’re studying FanGraphs proper now, so I’m certain you are able to do the mathematics on this one – you’ll in all probability favor the Statcast broadcast over on ESPN 2.

As in any yr, there’s a laundry checklist of Derby-worthy gamers who received’t be taking part, with Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Decide, and Elly De La Cruz on the prime. Nonetheless, this a strong sampling of swatters, and practically each participant figures to have a respectable shot at successful. Both we’ll have a first-time winner or Pete Alonso will take residence his record-tying third title.

The sphere options three of the highest six residence run hitters in baseball this season — Gunnar Henderson, Marcell Ozuna, and José Ramírez — and two of the sport’s brightest younger shortstops: AL MVP candidates Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr.. It additionally consists of three sluggers who take the Derby far more severely than your common participant — Alonso, Henderson, and Teoscar Hernández — and two others who’ve received derbies at decrease ranges: Witt and Alec Bohm. Lastly, there’s Adolis García, an electrifying slugger whose historic energy show in the course of the Rangers’ World Collection run final season is bound to maintain the group at full throat. Within the sections beneath, I’ll break down all the brand new guidelines and I’ll attempt to make a case for why every candidate has a shot on the crown.

Rule Modifications

In recent times, all the Derby has taken the type of a single-elimination event, with the eight individuals seeded based mostly on their common season residence run totals. This yr, the primary spherical will probably be broad open. All eight gamers will hit as many residence runs as they’ll, and the 4 gamers with the very best totals will advance right into a four-person bracket. They’ll be seeded based mostly on these totals, with the gap of their longest residence run serving as a tiebreaker.

On the one hand, it will doubtless make the competitors just a little bit extra truthful. Final yr, Adley Rutschman hit 27 residence runs within the first spherical. That was the third-highest whole of the spherical, however he failed to maneuver on as a result of he had the unhealthy luck to be going through off towards Luis Robert Jr., who hit 28. However, this alteration makes the Derby far more of an endurance contest. Swinging for the fences repeatedly is tiring work. In earlier years, in case you had been batting second, all you wanted to do was homer as soon as greater than your opponent, after which you might save your energy for the later rounds. That choice is now gone. Everybody must max out their first-round whole, so we should always in all probability count on some sweaty, sluggish sluggers by the point we get to the ultimate. Conditioning will probably be key.

In case your favourite factor in regards to the House Run Derby is the byzantine guidelines, you’re in for a deal with as a result of we’re simply getting began. This yr, the timing of every spherical stays the identical: Batters get three minutes within the first two rounds and two minutes within the remaining spherical, with one 45-second timeout per spherical. Nevertheless, you would possibly recall that in earlier years, the system required the pitcher to attend till the final ball had landed earlier than pitching, not less than in concept. In apply, some pitchers flouted that rule, and consequently, their hitters noticed far more pitches than did their opponents. With a view to curb that apply (which whereas undeniably unfair was additionally extraordinarily enjoyable), the foundations now embrace a most variety of pitches per spherical: 40 within the first two rounds and 27 within the remaining spherical, which works out to 4.5 seconds per pitch. In the event you run out of pitches, then the spherical is over, even when there’s nonetheless time on the clock. Take into account, that’s a most variety of pitches, not swings. That would make the command of the pitcher, already an enormous issue, much more necessary. In recent times, if batters didn’t like a pitch, they might take it and their pitcher would fireplace one other one instantly. There wasn’t a lot of a time penalty, as a result of they didn’t have to attend for the earlier pitch to land. On this new format, if the pitcher misses their batter’s nitro zone, it makes loads much less sense for the batter to take the pitch and look forward to the following one, as a result of they solely get so many valuable balls.

The bonus system has additionally modified fully. This yr, every participant concludes every spherical with an untimed bonus spherical wherein they’ll hit till they report three outs. In the event that they hit a ball not less than 425 ft inside the bonus, then they earn a fourth out. In different phrases, batters may get locked in and launch a bunch of homers in a row in the course of the bonus and pile onto their totals for the spherical, and due to the additional out, those that hit one particularly lengthy blast in the course of the bonus would have an excellent larger benefit.

If there’s a tie within the head-to-head rounds after the bonus, then each gamers get a 60-second swing-off with no extra bonuses or timeouts. In the event that they’re nonetheless tied after the swing-off, then they every get one other swing-off that consists of simply three swings. If it’s nonetheless tied after that, they do the entire three-swing enterprise once more till there’s a winner or till the solar swallows the earth, whichever occurs first.

OK, that’s it. These are the entire guidelines, I swear. Let’s transfer on to the individuals. Though the gamers are now not seeded, we’ll nonetheless talk about them within the order of their residence run totals.

Gunnar Henderson

Henderson turned 23 on June 29, so he has the prospect to develop into the youngest champion in Derby historical past. As a second-year participant who received’t be eligible for arbitration till 2026, the million-dollar prize for first place would greater than double his wage, and the $750,000 runner-up prize would very practically double it as properly. Primarily based on his efficiency this season, he additionally has a powerful case as the favourite. His 28 homers rank third in baseball behind Decide and Ohtani, and his 56.7% hard-hit fee ranks fourth amongst certified gamers behind these two and Juan Soto. Henderson additionally leads the Derby individuals with a median bat velocity of 75.8 mph (which can be good for ninth in all of baseball). Not that it’s notably related to the Derby, however Henderson is second within the majors with 6.1 WAR, only a hair behind Decide (6.3).

Henderson can be actually invested within the Derby. On Thursday, he held a legit apply session at Oriole Park, timed by teammate Colton Cowser and pitched by his Derby pitcher, Norfolk Tides supervisor Buck Britton. “I’ve hit his BP properly,” Henderson instructed reporters when requested why he selected Britton to pitch to him. “He throws good BP and it’s a fairly simple movement.” Nevertheless, Britton famous a possible problem with Henderson’s method. “Hopefully these balls simply recover from the wall,” stated Britton. “He hits the ball so arduous, however he hits it at actually low angles, so simply getting the ball within the air” will probably be key. Henderson is fourth in baseball with 112 blasts, however simply 31 of these blasts have come on fly balls, which sends him all the way down to twelfth place and third amongst Derby individuals, behind Ozuna (43) and Hernández (32). When Henderson does put the ball within the air, he’s golden. His 31.1% HR/FB fee is the most effective in baseball. However earlier than you get too involved about Henderson’s launch angle, look no additional than the final two winners. Henderson’s 46.9% groundball fee is decrease than the 48.2% fee that Soto ran within the first half of 2022, the yr he received the Derby, and the 49.8% fee that reigning champ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. put up within the first half of final season.

Marcell Ozuna

There’s no getting round this: Ozuna was a horrible option to symbolize Main League Baseball in such a celebratory occasion. In 2021, he was arrested for a home violence incident, a part of which was captured on physique cam footage. The fees had been dropped when Ozuna agreed to take part in a pretrial diversion program. He was additionally arrested for driving beneath the affect in 2022 and pleaded no contest in 2023. It’s not as if there’s any standards for the Derby that compelled MLB to place Ozuna entrance and heart; his All-Star choice serves as its personal acknowledgement of the very robust season he’s having. So inviting him to take part within the Derby, the league’s most fan-oriented and family-friendly evening of the yr, is an energetic alternative, one which sends a really clear message in regards to the league’s values. Ozuna has hit 26 residence runs this season.

José Ramírez

Because the begin of the 2016 season, Ramírez has put up 46.5 WAR, fifth in baseball. However don’t let the truth that he’s one of many sport’s best all-around gamers obscure his energy. Because the begin of the 2017 season, Ramírez has hit 220 residence runs, sixth most in baseball. Additionally, don’t sleep on Ramírez tonight simply based mostly on how he carried out in his first Derby look, in 2022, when he batted right-handed due to a serious thumb harm that fully sapped his energy. This yr, he’s anticipated to bat left-handed, and the ability is again. This season he’s tied for sixth in baseball with 23 residence runs. Ramírez’s common homer this season travels 388 ft, the shortest distance among the many group, however that shouldn’t essentially be held towards him. It’s a results of his deal with pulling balls on the air, a superb recipe for fulfillment and one thing he does extra continuously than some other participant. Likewise, though Ramírez has the bottom Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity of the group, at 103.9 mph, he can dial issues up when he needs to. His hardest-hit ball of the yr was 116.6 mph, which trails solely Witt among the many group and ranks twelfth in all of baseball.

The fascinating factor is that it’d truly make extra sense for Ramírez to bat right-handed tonight, and never simply because righties have a neater time leaving the yard at Globe Life. Over the course of his profession, 69% of his homers have come from the left facet, however that’s largely as a result of he faces far more righty pitchers than lefties, that means he bats left-handed much more continuously than he does righty. His energy output on a fee foundation is about the identical from either side; throughout his profession, he’s homered in 4.1% of his plate appearances when he bats left-handed in addition to when he hits righty, and both sides’s HR/FB ratio is sort of an identical, too. That stated, he undoubtedly has the potential for extra energy from the proper facet. His exit velocity, barrel fee, and hard-hit fee are decrease from the left facet this season and over the course of his profession. With the introduction of bat monitoring information, I can inform you that this season, his bat velocity averages 74.2 mph from the proper facet, practically 4 mph sooner than his 70.3 mark from the left facet. In line with Mike Petriello, who will probably be calling the Derby on ESPN 2 tonight, “on balls hit within the air, each 1 mph of bat velocity earns you roughly six extra ft of distance.” That’s a distinction of practically 24 ft.

Teoscar Hernández

Contemplating he has by no means completed a season with greater than 32 residence runs — in 2021, his solely 30-homer marketing campaign — Hernández may be simple to miss, however he’s a powerful darkish horse candidate. The 31-year-old has been one of many sport’s most constant energy hitters ever since he turned a big-league common in 2018. If we ignore the 2020 season, when Hernández managed 16 homers in simply 50 video games, then he’s hit not less than 25 homers in every of the final 4 seasons, and not less than 20 in every of the final 5. He could not lead this yr’s eight individuals in anybody class, however since 2018, he’s by no means as soon as completed a season beneath the eightieth percentile in barrel fee, common exit velocity, or max exit velocity.

Maybe much more necessary than his credentials is the truth that Hernández actually needs to win. He overtly campaigned to be included, and as soon as he was chosen, he sought recommendation from Guerrero Jr., a two-time Derby contestant who received final yr’s event, and Ohtani, his Dodgers teammate who participated within the 2021 Derby. The 2 warned him in regards to the impact that fatigue can play, and Hernández has stated that he’ll deal with lifting the ball relatively than tiring himself out with max-effort hacks. “I believe I’ve just a little little bit of a bonus as a result of I swing loads,” Hernández stated. “I take plenty of swings day by day. My physique is used to going swing, swing, swing with out getting relaxation.”

Hernández has held two timed apply periods along with his Derby pitcher, Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel, whose son Brady simply participated within the Excessive Faculty House Run Derby this weekend. Anybody who’s watched the Derby commonly is aware of that the pitcher makes an enormous distinction, and in Ebel, Hernández may need one thing of a secret weapon. This will probably be his fourth Derby pitching look on the big-league degree, and he additionally pitched in two minor league derbies. He helped Vladimir Guerrero win the 2007 Derby, then pitched to Albert Pujols in 2015 and Joc Pederson in 2019.

Pete Alonso

Alonso has been in a funk currently; he has simply two residence runs this month, and over his final 12 video games, he’s batting .196 with no extra-base hits and a 41 wRC+. However don’t child your self: Alonso is a prolific residence run hitter. Because the begin of the 2019 season, when he was named NL Rookie of the Yr after main the majors with 53 homers, Alonso has clobbered 211 residence runs, essentially the most in all of baseball. He’s performed in solely 4 full seasons, and he’s already considered one of simply 48 gamers in main league historical past with not less than three seasons of 40 or extra homers. The 6-foot-3, 245-pound Polar Bear can be proficient at crushing Derby dingers. He received back-to-back titles in 2019 and 2021 and has participated in each subsequent Derby. A 3rd victory would tie Ken Griffey Jr. for the report, although he’ll want to seem in three extra after this one if he needs to tie Junior’s report of eight appearances. Alonso has requested former Mets bench coach Dave Jauss, who pitched to him in 2021 and 2022, to come back again and pitch once more after final yr’s first-round exit.

This season, Alonso’s common exit velocity has fallen all the way in which all the way down to the thirty fifth percentile, however he can nonetheless bash the ball when he will get maintain of it. His most exit velocity has by no means dropped beneath the 97th percentile, and his 75.1-mph bat velocity is second solely to Henderson amongst Derby individuals. Crucially, Alonso doesn’t must raise the ball to hit it out. This season, 9.4% of his line drives have left the ballpark. That ranks second amongst all gamers who’ve hit not less than 25 line drives, and it’s greater than twice the speed of six of his seven Derby rivals. Alonso additionally boasts the hardest-hit residence run of all eight individuals, a 115.3-mph blast on Might 16.

Adolis García

García is among the most enjoyable gamers in baseball, however he’s at present sitting on -0.1 WAR for the season. However even in a replacement-level yr, his energy numbers are nonetheless formidable. His hard-hit fee, barrel fee, common exit velocity, and Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity, whereas down from final yr, nonetheless rank within the 83th percentile or increased. Furthermore, García clearly nonetheless has top-level energy, as he hit the toughest ball of his total profession, a scorching 116.1-mph line drive double, again in Might.

For a number of causes, García needs to be a favourite. First, he’s acquired Derby expertise. Though he crashed out of final yr’s first spherical with 17 homers, the second-lowest whole of all eight individuals, he was pacing for an amazing spherical till he fell right into a funk and he hit simply two residence runs over the ultimate minute. The following issue can’t be overstated: García excels beneath the intense lights. He launched 39 residence runs final season, after which added eight extra within the playoffs, together with a five-game homer streak that stretched from the ALCS to the World Collection. In entrance of a house crowd that’s sure to be going loopy for him, García will probably be giving it his all, and his all is a complete lot. In the event you watched the Fall Traditional, you recognize that when García needs to hit one out of the ballpark, he’s acquired simply in regards to the fiercest residence run hack within the sport. Regardless of how he fares, García is bound to placed on a present.

Bobby Witt Jr.

This can be Bobby Witt Jr.’s first MLB House Run Derby, but it surely’s not precisely his first rodeo. In 2018, Witt received the Excessive Faculty House Run Derby at Nationals Park, out-dueling Rece Hinds – sure, the identical Rece Hinds who has completed nothing however crush monster residence runs throughout his first week as a giant leaguer – within the remaining spherical. In a contest just like the Derby, it is smart to take a look at how gamers do after they’re served up pitches proper down the center, and each Witt’s 71.7% hard-hit fee and 99.6-mph exit velocity on these meatballs lead the eight individuals by far.

Witt’s Statcast sliders are pink sufficient to make a vampire salivate, and he tops all individuals in barrels and Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity. This season, his common residence run has traveled 418 ft. Nobody else within the Derby has a median above 410. Witt can be the one participant to hit a homer greater than 450 ft this season, and he did it twice. Briefly, there’s nobody within the Derby who can hit the ball more durable than Witt.

Don’t let Witt’s placement this far down on the checklist idiot you. Though his 16 homers are the second-lowest whole amongst individuals, Statcast credit him with 21.2 anticipated homers, fourth most. That hole of 5.2 homers is the most important in baseball. Not solely is Witt the type of all-around athlete you shouldn’t wager towards in any type of expertise competitors, he’s additionally coming into the Derby with a full head of steam. Over the previous two weeks, he’s batting .409 with 4 homers and a 215 wRC+.

Alec Bohm

Bohm is the apparent underdog. With a 130 wRC+, the 27-year-old is having a breakout season. However whilst he’s added a tick of exit velocity and practically 4 proportion factors to his hard-hit fee, he’s hardly a house run hitter. His 11 lengthy balls put him in a 16-way tie for the 89th-highest whole in baseball, and he’s the one Derby participant who is just not on tempo to achieve the 20-homer threshold. Bohm has hit only one ball lengthy sufficient to earn a bonus this season, a 427-foot shot on June 30. Nevertheless, earlier than you conclude that Bohm doesn’t have a snowball’s probability in Arlington to win this factor, understand that not one of the final three Derby winners was seeded higher than fourth.

Additionally, Bohm has received a derby earlier than. In 2016, he received the derby of the Coastal Plain League, a wood-bat collegiate summer season league. Scott Wingo, who coached Bohm’s Wilmington Sharks and pitched to him in that derby, will pitch to him once more tonight. It’s additionally potential that Bohm may gain advantage from the brand new guidelines. In a Derby the place taking a pitch comes with the next penalty, the flexibility to drive something you see may matter extra. Consistency has at all times been an underrated a part of success within the Derby, and no participant comes near squaring up the ball as typically as does Bohm. On a per-swing foundation, he ranks seventh amongst all certified gamers in hard-hit fee, ninth in squared-up fee, and eleventh in blast fee. If he can get in a groove, he may have an opportunity.

Who’s Going to Win

In the event you’ve learn Jay Jaffe’s previews in earlier years, you recognize that Jay closes with a prediction. Much more annoyingly for me, he’s very often proper. Jay predicted Bryce Harper’s 2018 win, Alonso’s in 2019, and Vladito’s simply final yr. I can’t promise Jay’s degree of accuracy, and I genuinely consider that the sphere is broad open, however my intestine tells me to go together with Bobby Witt Jr. I say that not simply because he’s able to placing on a present when he’s locked in, however as a result of he’s such a bodily marvel that even when he’s not locked in, he’s acquired sufficient energy to push him via. I now stay up for watching Witt flame out within the first spherical.