Hey there, FanGraphs reader. Nice information! Our playoff odds simply went up for the 2024 season. These odds, as all the time, are largely enlightening, but additionally a tiny bit mystifying. The mannequin itself stays easy: We take projections for every participant, combination them as much as the crew stage based mostly on enjoying time projections, after which use that to create anticipated crew run scoring and prevention numbers. From there, we simulate out the season 20,000 instances and observe what occurred in every occasion. The percentages are only a abstract of these simulations.
So simple as the method is, it’s additionally inscrutable. How good are the projections? We expect they’re excellent, as they’re a mixture of ZiPS and Steamer. However these projections inevitably differ from individuals’s perceptions of each particular person gamers and groups. So in what’s turn into an annual custom, I’m going to offer you a guided tour by the projections and level out the notable factors in every division, then clarify how our mannequin acquired there and what I consider it.
The AL East Is a Buzzsaw
My goodness, this division is nice. Our mannequin simulates the precise schedule, however to try this, we first forecast crew strengths in a vacuum, and the AL East has 4 of the highest 10 groups in baseball, and 4 of the highest six groups within the American League. If we performed in a bizarre counterfactual world the place as a substitute of dealing with one another, each crew performed a hypothetical .500 crew 162 instances, our mannequin tasks that the AL East would outscore their opponents by a mixed 218 runs. The second-best division in baseball is the NL East… at 44 runs.
The Yankees sitting in first place may shock some individuals, however they completed above .500 final 12 months regardless of some unhealthy damage luck, and each the mannequin and I completely love what they’ve performed to the crew since then. They backfilled the rotation with Marcus Stroman, who ought to present bulk innings with affordable high quality, one thing the crew sorely lacked final 12 months. They acquired three completely different outfielders higher than each Yankees outfielder apart from Aaron Choose, and a kind of was Juan Freaking Soto. There are definitely nonetheless causes to fret – depth and growing old being the highest two – however our odds agree with bookmakers and different equally constructed fashions that they’re the crew to beat within the division. They may not win 95 video games as a result of the division is so powerful, however this iteration of the Yankees appears legitimately nice.
The Orioles and Rays are in a lifeless warmth for second, which could shock some – the O’s simply gained a billion video games, in any case. However they outperformed their uncooked statistics meaningfully, and we’re projecting their competitors to get more durable this 12 months. Including Corbin Burnes is clearly nice, and we expect they’re now among the best run prevention groups in baseball, so mission achieved there. Nonetheless, that is the projection of a membership slightly below the sport’s elite tier, which incorporates 4 groups: the Braves, Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees. The system merely doesn’t care that the O’s gained 100 video games final 12 months; it tasks every participant individually and goes from there.
The Rays have typically been underrated by our mannequin as a result of their depth does an unbelievable job masking for accidents. That will but be the case this 12 months, however they’ve additionally collected a gaudy assortment of above-average hitters and pitchers that imply they stack up nicely in opposition to the remainder of the league when evaluating starter to starter. Add of their standard depth, this time headlined by a bumper crop of prospects, and issues look characteristically rosy in Tampa Bay. By BaseRuns, which strips out sequencing and context from the statistics every crew places up, they completed 11 wins forward of the O’s final 12 months (however two video games behind in actual life). We’re projecting a wholesome dose of regression for them, however they’re simply so good that it’s onerous to think about them falling additional than this.
Lastly, the Blue Jays and Purple Sox aren’t any slouches. We’ve the Jays because the seventh-best crew in baseball, however suppose they’ll win the Twelfth-most video games. We expect the Purple Sox are above common and but will end with a dropping report. Both of these groups would stand likelihood of successful one of many two central divisions. What a wildly aggressive group.
The Twins Stand Alone
It’s actually onerous to challenge as having a 50% likelihood of successful your division. Baseball is inherently unstable and groups are bunched up. Solely 4 groups in the whole majors hit that mark, and three of them are the consensus greatest three groups within the sport: the Braves, the Dodgers, and the Astros. The fourth is the Twins, who we expect can be the fifth-best crew within the AL East if everybody performed the identical schedules.
Right here’s the factor, although: the AL Central is terrible this 12 months. Dylan Stop and Luis Robert Jr. may nonetheless be on the roster, however the White Sox are quick approaching the purpose the place they transfer previous the “commerce the whole lot that’s not nailed down” a part of their teardown and begin buying and selling the nails. The Royals misplaced 106 video games final 12 months, and whereas we expect they’re going to be so much higher in 2024, they’re nonetheless a nasty crew. The Tigers and Guardians are going to wrestle to attain runs, although each will do a reasonably good job of stopping them.
The Twins aren’t precisely the second coming of the 2001 Mariners or the 1927 Yankees. We challenge them within the backside half of baseball offensively, although we do love their pitching employees. However while you win your division by 9 video games and none of your opponents do a lot to enhance their rosters over the winter, it’s straightforward to come back out on prime once more. At the least, that’s what our odds suppose, and I are inclined to agree. For what it’s price, betting markets do too: In good settlement with our odds, the Twins are one among solely 4 groups who’re extra probably than to not win their division.
Take a look at the Mariners and Rangers
Dunking on the Mariners for his or her payroll-reducing methods has turn into a enjoyable offseason pastime. They despatched Eugenio Suárez away for little or no, then traded away Jarred Kelenic with a couple of unhealthy (however nonetheless comparatively minor) contracts for nothing in return. Even bringing Mitch Haniger again into the fold was as a lot about Robbie Ray’s wage because it was reinforcing the outfield. Mix these strikes with the crew’s murky RSN image and the objective is fairly clear: This winter was about long-term monetary financial savings.
It’s undoubtedly a bummer to take a crew that’s proper on the fringes of the playoffs and subtract items to steadiness the books. However Jerry Dipoto and co. have performed a extremely good job of maximizing the crew’s 2024 probabilities whereas doing so, and our odds present it. Positive, they’re in a troublesome division – the defending World Sequence champs aren’t even the favorites. Positive, they traded away some gamers who regarded like vital contributors. However they did a lot of including across the edges, and even when I didn’t like the large image considering behind numerous their trades, I believe they did very well tactically in most of their offers. Their offense nonetheless isn’t going to gentle the world on fireplace, however their pitching stays elite. They barely missed the playoffs final 12 months, and so they is perhaps a greater crew in 2024 than they have been in 2023.
As for the Rangers, their problem can be attending to the playoffs. Three of their prime 4 pitchers will miss the primary half of the 12 months, which is impacting their full-season run prevention projection. Their bullpen stays sketchy at greatest. But when they’re nonetheless within the thick of issues when Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle return, be careful: Our depth charts give that trio 17% of their starter innings, however that quantity is perhaps above 50% by September. Our full-year forecast merely can’t account for that late-season change.
It’s All the time Sunny in… Atlanta
Yeah, the Braves are ridiculous. We expect they’re the very best crew in baseball by a large margin. Their offense is ludicrous, in fact. They lit the majors on fireplace in 2023. However their pitching ought to be higher this 12 months with a full season of Max Fried and a few beneficial innings from Chris Sale. They even shored up their bullpen, which now ranks among the many greatest in baseball. Final 12 months was no fluke; this crew is simply stacked throughout the board.
Nobody else is realistically enjoying for first within the NL East. That’s not as a result of the Phillies are terrible; we expect they’re extra probably than to not make the playoffs because of a prime 10 offense. However they’re simply not the equal of Atlanta, not less than within the common season. You may inform that the Braves agree; their offseason was constructed round addressing their lack of dominant postseason pitching. I additionally benefit from the Marlins/Mets face-off in the midst of the division; we expect each groups will get to .500-ish data in extraordinarily alternative ways.
The Brewers May Have Miscalculated
The Brewers try to string a fragile needle by buying and selling Corbin Burnes whereas citing Jackson Chourio. They’re engaged on establishing their subsequent 5 years whereas additionally retaining 2024 in play. That “subsequent 5 years” half is trying fairly good – they infused an already promising younger core with extra expertise by buying and selling Burnes – however they’re not the favorites within the NL Central after dropping their ace.
That place falls to the Cardinals, who completed final within the division in 2023. However they’re the Cardinals, and so they centered their total offseason on shoring up their greatest weak point: pitching. We nonetheless suppose they’re not an excellent pitching crew; they’ve the Eleventh-worst run prevention projection in baseball regardless of enjoying in a pitcher’s park. However they have been a lot worse than that final 12 months, and their offense is loaded.
The Cubs may find yourself being higher than they appear in the intervening time — they’re reportedly nonetheless contemplating including a marquee free agent. The Reds have a Cardinals-esque pitching employees with out the run-suppressing house stadium, so that they’re going to get in numerous shootouts, however their hitters will win their justifiable share of them. In 2023, Milwaukee simply walked away with this division. In 2024, we expect that it’ll be a melee with the Brewers ranging from an obstacle. They’re not down and out by any means, however they’re coming into the season in a weaker place than Wisconsinites are used to.
The Giants are Complicated
Okay, tremendous, the Dodgers are actually nice. We and just about everybody with a pulse agree that they’re among the best groups in baseball. I don’t suppose that’s an fascinating takeaway from our odds, although. It’s simply apparent on its face. Yeah, the crew with Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Shohei Ohtani is nice. That’s all you’re going to get on them on this article.
The down-ballot portion of the division is significantly extra intriguing to me. The Diamondbacks unquestionably overperformed expectations final 12 months; they acquired outscored on the season and made the World Sequence anyway. This offseason, they doubled down on their success by shoring up weaknesses each within the discipline and on the mound, and so they’re coming again with a stronger core round Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Zac Gallen. We expect they’re extra probably than to not make the playoffs.
My greatest “whoa, what?” of the whole odds run, although, is the place of the Giants and Padres. 2023 was presupposed to be San Diego’s final stand. They misplaced a ton of contributors from that crew through free company and commerce, and spent the offseason lowering payroll as a substitute of reloading. The record of their offseason strikes largely reads like a minor league waiver wire. We’re projecting their payroll to drop by $90 million this 12 months, an enormous tumble.
We nonetheless like them greater than the Giants, who’re spinning their wheels with out conducting a lot of something. They didn’t signal many free brokers this 12 months after speaking a giant recreation about rebounding from lacking out on Aaron Choose by making an enormous push for Shohei Ohtani. They’re additionally spending a lot much less in 2024 than they did in 2023; they’re down practically $50 million in payroll. They’ve a below-average infield and a league common outfield, even with the addition of Jung Hoo Lee. Their pitching employees is skinny — it’s Logan Webb after which numerous query marks. Their bullpen is hardly an asset; it’s been intermittently good in recent times because of swingmen bulking it up, however numerous these guys left this winter. Robbie Ray’s eventual return will assist, however even then, I don’t like the development of this crew a lot in any respect.
Certainly, this isn’t how the Giants deliberate it. Their 107-win 2021 marketing campaign was clearly a high-water mark, nevertheless it wasn’t presupposed to be the final time they contended. Proper now, although, this crew appears misplaced at sea. A sub-Padres projection is a becoming indictment – even the crew purposefully buying and selling off its greatest gamers to shrink the funds appears higher on paper. The farm system’s not nice, both. The San Francisco doom loop narrative irks me to no finish as a resident; I believe town is nice and that reviews of its decline are a ridiculous tradition struggle speaking level. However on the baseball discipline? Now there, I’ve to confess it appears fairly doom-y.