Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 7/8/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s jsut get going

Orioles fan: are we gonna be ready til July thirty first for the commerce market to actually get going once more?

Ben Clemens: I feel it’ll be extra like July twenty eighth or one thing

Ben Clemens: however yeah… notably since expanded playoffs, it’s actually arduous to persuade groups to get cooking early

Ben Clemens: everybody desires to know in the event that they’re in or out, which is more durable to peg when so many groups are in

Ben Clemens: there’s additionally this traditional negotiation drawback. With out a deadline looming, the temptation is all the time to carry out for somewhat extra

Ben Clemens: “perhaps they didn’t ship their finest supply, perhaps somebody will get determined”

Ben Clemens: I feel that earlier trades are typically for gamers who’ve extra than simply this yr left on their offers

Matt VW: Is the Yankees’ latest swoon simply a part of the ups and downs of the season, or is it indicative of some holes that want filling?

Ben Clemens: Look, the Yankee lineup is fairly dangerous exterior two of the perfect 5 hitters in baseball

Ben Clemens: perhaps two of the highest two, actually

Ben Clemens: when that dangerous a part of the lineup is down, it’s actually down

Ben Clemens: I feel they’ll be simply high-quality, however we’re positively looknig at a stars and scrubs staff right here

Booney: In comparison with place gamers, it seems like fewer and fewer beginning pitchers are primed to succeed in the (admittedly tough) 55-60 WAR threshold for HOF consideration. General, do you suppose WAR is precisely capturing their contributions, and that fewer pitchers should get in? Or do we have to change how we take into consideration this stuff?

Ben Clemens: I feel that WAR is precisely capturing their contributions to profitable, yeah

Ben Clemens: An increasing number of pitchers are dealing with the identical whole quantity of workload

Ben Clemens: so in fact the WAR is getting unfold out

Ben Clemens: I simply don’t suppose that meaning fewer pitchers should get in

Ben Clemens: fame is relative

Ben Clemens: I feel that the factors needs to be standing out relative to your period

Getting uninterested in it: Deyvision De Los Santos.  Why does ink have little or no to about DDLS?  The person’s stats at age 20 (!!) mirror Yordan Alvarez and in identical AA/AAA competitors.  thanks.

Ben Clemens: technically he turned 21 just a few weeks in the past, however I take your level

Ben Clemens: I’m positive that our updtaed prospect lists could have one thing to say about him, however effectively, the prospect protection proper now’s tilted in direction of a)ending each checklist b)the draft

Ben Clemens: there’s solely a lot oxygen within the room, you understand?

Eli: is there any hope for the free-falling Yankees? And in the event that they collapse and miss the put up season, will that lastly be sufficient to drive out the Cashman/Boone regime?

Ben Clemens: In the event that they miss the playoffs this yr, I do suppose that the Cashman/Boone regime might be accomplished

Ben Clemens: however uh, I don’t suppose they’re lacking the playoffs this yr

Dan’l: The prospect of the Playing cards promoting some items (Helsley) is sort of zero now, I assume? Have they got an opportunity on the worst run differential for a playoff staff ever?

Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose so

Ben Clemens: final yr’s (!!) Marlins had a -57 run differential

Ben Clemens: that’s the report, and if the Playing cards play poorly sufficient to lose one other 30-ish runs of scoring differential, it’s extremely unlikely that they’re qualifying

Ray: Hello Ben, I play in a 12-team roto the place we rating the massive 5 plus OBP, SLG, and Ok’s.   I take advantage of J. Pederson in opposition to RHP and am comfortable. Been provided C. Walker  lin commerce.  Is he and his elevated ABs an improve over Joc?

Ben Clemens: I’d take Walker, yeah

Visitor: Lindor is 4th in MLB in fWAR (amongst hitters) for the reason that begin of 2022. Not a single All-Star look in these previous three seasons. As a Mets fan/Lindor stan, this makes me unhappy! He’s a celebrity!

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I utterly agree with this

Ben Clemens: to be clear, I don’t see what they have been gonna do that yr

Ben Clemens: Elly De La Cruz truly does deserve the spot

Ben Clemens: like, simply on the numbers. and he’s additionally new and enjoyable

Ben Clemens: Trea Turner is the weak hyperlink right here, and he bought voted in as a starter

Ben Clemens: however Lindor is unquestionably underrated. I’m knee deep in a bunch of projection stuff for commerce worth and I’m impressed by each what he’s accomplished and the way he’s projected to do going ahead

Visitor: Willi Castro all star snub ?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, although I assume he’ll find yourself making it with harm replacements taken under consideration

Ben Clemens: I used to be unhappy that my man Erick Fedde didn’t make it till I made a decision he’ll in all probability get in as a alternative

Ben Clemens: pitchers specifically see a ton of attrition

NatsFanDC: Are there hitters who’re comparatively worse in opposition to good pitching? I used to be speaking to a pal who was complaining that his staff simply can’t hit good pitching. At first I simply mentioned, that’s why it’s good pitching, everybody hits worse in opposition to it. Once I thought of it somewhat extra, there are guys who’ve had fairly huge samples of fine hitting at Triple A and simply can’t make the shift to the majors. Their numbers simply don’t translate as you would possibly count on. Perhaps its one thing to do with anticipated additional growth that by no means comes or a weak spot that solely will get uncovered solely on the larger ranges, however even when that’s true, another person’s line could be mediocre vs. good MLB pitching.

Ben Clemens: This was in The E-book, and I’ve been enthusiastic about redoing it, notably in reference to Brent Rooker

Ben Clemens: I haven’t discovered quite a lot of proof that it exists

Ben Clemens: however that doesn’t imply I received’t maintain trying

Jim Bob Cooter: Presently Buxton has his third finest wRC+ of his profession, however nonetheless a bit off from his peak… is he again to being nice when wholesome?

Ben Clemens: I feel so? I actually don’t know what to make of final yr

Ben Clemens: the not taking part in the sphere is what actually threw me

Marcos: If Justin Steele is definitely traded this month, are we speaking a number of top-100 varieties in return?

Ben Clemens: One thing alongside these strains, sure

Ben Clemens: however on the tail finish of the 100, 50 FV varieties

Jim: Although Pittsburgh hasn’t given up, is it time for the remainder of us to surrender on Nick Gonzales? Previous 30 days noticed him bat .232 with 1 every (HR/SB) and didn’t attain double-digits for RBI or R.  Drop for Schuemann, M.Rojas, Caballero, B.Rodgers?

Ben Clemens: mmmm…. I feel I’d maintain onto him over these choices

Ben Clemens: however most considering switching for Schuemann

Ben Clemens: the Pirates not giving up is I feel a great signal

shortstop: Who ought to the Angels unequivocally not commerce? O’Hoppe, Neto, Soriano, Detmers? I feel everybody else needs to be honest recreation.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’d say even these guys ought to in all probability be on the block, I simply suppose that O’Hoppe and Neto are in all probability extra of offseason commerce items

Ben Clemens: we’re nonetheless in burn it to the bottom and rebuild mode, I’d say

AL Central Casting: Will we ever return to a time when the strike zone isn’t superimposed on televised video games? Would you like that? Perhaps used just for replay? Or finally an choice viewers can toggle on or off?

Ben Clemens: I’d like no strike zone

Ben Clemens: however an choice can be excellent, I agree

Ben Clemens: I simply discover I benefit from the recreation somewhat extra after I’m deciding if it’s a strike as an alternative of the television

Matt: How do you consider the Nationals and their rebuild, particularly MacKenzie Gore?  He has nice pedigree however nonetheless hasn’t appear to place all of it togehter?

Ben Clemens: “what do you consider MacKenzie Gore” is a query I’ve been mulling over a TON in latest weeks

Ben Clemens: i imply, he’s been nice this yr, and the pedigree is there

Ben Clemens: the stuff is there too. I feel I referred to as him a Clayton Kershaw starter package as soon as and I persist with that broad comparability

Matt: Talking about excessive pedigree SPs who haven’t put all of it collectively but…what do you consider MacKenzie Gore and Nick Lodolo (this yr and subsequent)?

Ben Clemens: So, these two issues should not like the opposite. Gore has been actually good this yr!

Ben Clemens: 3.83 ERA regardless of a .369 BABIP in opposition to

Ben Clemens: Lodolo has been strong as effectively, albeit in much less begins

Ben Clemens: I’m extra optimistic on Gore, however I’ve type of all the time been extra optimistic on Gore

Ben Clemens: I feel that each of them are so gifted that I’m prepared to imagine they’ve turned the nook with much less proof than your common pitcher, although

darrenasu: The M’s look like attempting to set data in offensive futility. (kidding, however barely). What’s a practical commerce that strikes the needle sufficiently for them? I’m pondering Jazz Chisholm for Cole Younger and a lottery ticket. He’s not a celebrity however would instantly be their finest hitter and performs two positions the M’s are horrible at. Ideas?

Ben Clemens: yeah, Jazz to the Mariners makes quite a lot of sense to me

Ben Clemens: as ever, the Mariners badly want a second baseman

Visitor: By BaseRuns, the Phillies are the perfect staff within the NL.  Would you’re taking them as extra more likely to attain the World Sequence than the Dodgers?

Ben Clemens: nah, I’ll nonetheless take the Dodgers. I feel each will get spherical one byes, and I feel it’s actually shut, to be clear, however I identical to the Dodgers’ expertise a bit extra

Ghost of Wade Boggs: Hypothetical rule change time! Fake for a minute that baseball imposed a rule by which a staff may discipline 9 DHs. In conjunction, 8 extra roster spots can be granted in order to not have an effect on pitching configurations.

The apparent consequence of that is that it might be assumed that offensive manufacturing all through the league would go up. However it must be assumed that defensive high quality would enhance as effectively. The query is, what do you suppose would occur to the general run scoring within the league if each of these parts have been to extend dramatically and concurrently?

Ben Clemens: I feel scoring would go up meaningfully

Ben Clemens: protection exerts much less affect on the sport than hitting

Ben Clemens: as a result of it solely issues on the subset of plate appearances that finish in fieldable batted balls

Derek: Lindor is like, a 99% shot to interchange Mookie, proper?

Ben Clemens: Until I’m misunderstanding, Mookie has already been changed

Ben Clemens: hm, now I’m undecided

Ben Clemens: however sure, I feel that Lindor is admittedly excessive within the alternative hierarchy

Jaded Mariners fan: Do the Mariners have a particular expertise for turning hitters dangerous? Interested by Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Kolten Wong, Adam Frazier, Teoscar Hernandez, Jesse Winker simply up to now few years. However it’s a pattern that goes again to Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins within the mid 2000s.

Ben Clemens: A few of these don’t make sense to me

Ben Clemens: like, Wong went there when he was already on the acute downswing, Frazier had one good yr in 2021 however hasn’t been particularly good ever

Ben Clemens: Wong had a fairly good 2022, however I dunno, everybody appeared to agree the writing was on the wall

Ben Clemens: Winker, no argument there

Ben Clemens: I do suppose that hitters don’t like hitting in TMobile

visitor: Is there any fact to groups that rating quite a lot of runs through the HR ball, wrestle within the post-season? As a result of apparently, the Orioles rating too many runs through the HR ball for a contingent of the fanbase. Chilly climate, higher pitching, blah, blah, blah.

Ben Clemens: there may be not. When Ben Lindbergh investigated this, he discovered that groups that rating extra of their runs through the homer truly do barely BETTER than you’d count on within the playoffs

J: Cubs needs to be procuring Taillon, no? They received’t get any return, however somebody in all probability would need him even with that contract, and the Cubs would love to not owe him $36 million over the following two years.

Ben Clemens: yeah, I’m positive they are going to be

Damaged Bat: Might Dodgers have an interest together with his multi yr wage in Dansby? Couldn’t Cubs begin the unload by perhaps getting River Ryan, as soon as their 2 prime rated catchers. To me they ( Dodger facet) are spare components.They assist their pitchers with Swanson at SS? believable?

Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose the Cubs wish to commerce Swanson

Ben Clemens: full no commerce, appears to love Chicago, his spouse performs there too

C-Low: Would Gunnar’s throughout worth be sufficient to surpass Decide because the MVP if the season ended right now?

Ben Clemens: I imply…. perhaps he’d deserve it? is dependent upon how you consider what deserve means

Ben Clemens: however Decide would win if the season ended right now they usually had a vote

Raymond: How has Seattle been in first place for this lengthy with an offense this dangerous? As an O’s fan, I didn’t truly understand how terrible that lineup was till this previous sequence. When Julio isn’t hitting, there genuinely isn’t a great hitter wherever in that lineup?

Ben Clemens: their offense is SHOCKINGLY dangerous

Ben Clemens: i believe Josh Rojas is a ‘good hitter’

Ben Clemens: Cal Raleigh too

Ben Clemens: not nice, however profitable groups have dudes like these

Ben Clemens: however yeah, woof. it’s simply an all pitching squad

Kirk: George Kirby needs to be an all star. I’m offended by his omission. Do you suppose he will get added later?

Ben Clemens: I do, and I’m additionally stunned he didnt’ make it

Visitor: Which staff’s younger core would you somewhat have: Reds (Elly, Greene, McLain, Lodolo, and so on.) or Pirates (Oneil, Jones, Skenes, Hayes, and so on.)?

Ben Clemens: It’s not minimize and dry, however I feel that the Pirates may need no core younger hitters

Ben Clemens: I’ll facet with the hitter-heavier facet on the whole

Guards received!: Bibee All-Star snub?  Want to see our ace within the ASG!

Ben Clemens: I feel he’ll find yourself making it

Princess Leia: Assist us Obi-Wan Clemonobi! Royce Lewis is misplaced. Once more.

Ben Clemens: it’s so depressing

Ben Clemens: I used to be speaking to Meg about this final week after I was attempting to determine if he was a prime 50 commerce worth man

Ben Clemens: and actually WHILE I used to be speaking about it he bought damage

Ben Clemens: can’t make these things up

Harmon Ripkowski: Yankees all time outfield, Aaron Decide is…prime 3, prime 6,…?

Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose he’s decrease than 4th

Ben Clemens: so the query is mainly order Decide, Mantle, DiMaggio

Ben Clemens: and yeah, I’ve him fourth

Visitor: how do you suppose groups ought to consider Jordan Walker at this level? He’s so younger that he’s clearly not completely hopeless or something, however on the identical time he’s struggling badly in AAA proper now

I strongly suppose he’ll nonetheless be within the Playing cards’ org in August, however I ponder if all events can be finest served if one other staff was given an opportunity to repair him. Or ought to the Cardinals give him one other yr?

Ben Clemens: The provides the Playing cards get for him are going to be excessive lowballs

Ben Clemens: which is sensible, to be clear

Ben Clemens: I feel he would in all probability be finest served with a brand new org, I don’t have quite a lot of nice examples for you of the Cardinals succeeding on this explicit sort of prospect dev

Ben Clemens: however I feel that’s a tough commerce to make, it’s all the time robust to promote low

Will: Emmanuel Clase + some throw ins to the Cubs for Justin Steele, honest or unfair?

Ben Clemens: I might not do that commerce if I have been the Cubs

J: For the reason that begin of final yr, Justin Steele is eighth amongst all pitchers in WAR and he’s bought 3 years of management left after this. I actually suppose they’d giggle at 2 50 FV varieties and that you’re badly undervaluing him.

Ben Clemens: i imply, maybe

Ben Clemens: if that’s the case, I don’t suppose he’s getting traded

Ben Clemens: which might be the correct factor for the Cubs

Ben Clemens: I’ve a giant previous slug of controllable pitching all tiered collectively in commerce worth in the mean time

Ben Clemens: and both he, Grayson Rodriguez, or Jared Jones is the headliner of that tier

Ben Clemens: I feel that every one of them are fairly dang thrilling

Princess Leia: You’re brother in title, Ben Rice, accomplished good this weekend!

bosoxforlife: Ben Rice gave you loads of stuff on your 5 issues I favored (or didn’t like) final week. His loafing badly on Friday in all probability price the Yankees the sport then hits 3 HR’s on Saturday.

Ben Clemens: gotta love a fellow Ben serving to me out

davealden53: I recall you being captivated with Eguy Rosario.  He’s now again at AAA after solely a handful of MLB at-bats.  However I perceive the Padres not seeing a place to play him.  What’s his future?  Be taught a unique place?  Commerce bait?

Ben Clemens: commerce bait I feel

Visitor: Have you ever or others you understand seemed into the discrepancy between Masson Miller rookie standing? Seems to be variations between just a few dependable sources.

Ben Clemens: He’s eligible

Ben Clemens: it’s an excessive nook case

Ben Clemens: the place he had precisely few sufficient days, however on a day the place he was positioned on the IL, just a few websites counted him as additionally being on the energetic roster that day

Summer time of George: Julio Rodriguez, traded at deadline?

wheelhouse: i believe anthony volpe has was the worst hitter in baseball. or at the very least he’s tied with like 5 different yankees who play each recreation

Ben Clemens: Yankees followers are the perfect

Visitor: Whereas we focus on Walker, what about Torkelson? This was fairly the frustration this season. I ponder if he’s progressing in Monroe however doesn’t seem as so on the stat line.

Ben Clemens: he may in all probability use a change of surroundings however nobody’s gonna deal one thing of import for him

Visitor: Extra BaseRuns enjoyable (or BaseFuns, if you’ll):  The Pink Sox have a greater BaseRuns report than the Yankees.  And but they nonetheless would possibly promote on the commerce deadline?  Does that really occur?

Owen: The Pink Sox can’t be sellers at this level, proper? What would you goal of their place?

Ben Clemens: I feel that the Pink Sox will probably be marginal consumers

Ben Clemens: I agree, can’t promote right here

Matt VW: No Ruth within the all time Yankees outfield?

Ben Clemens: no he’s simply an inarguable primary

Ben Clemens: so the query is methods to rank two by means of 4

Mike: Max Kepler and Julien to the M’s for his or her prime prospect and one other good prospect or two.

Ben Clemens: I’m a giant Harry Ford man, so I’d in all probability attempt to make this commerce work otherwise, however I like the overall idea

Ben Clemens: I assume the bizarre half is, why are the Twins promoting?

David: Re: NYY Stars and Scrubs, lest we overlook BOS final title got here off this system. Properly, Pearce going nuts might dispute that however I digress

Ben Clemens: that’s a part of the celebrities and scrubs development, although

Ben Clemens: if you happen to do stars and scrubs and considered one of your scrubs will get sizzling, you’re unbeatable

Gajacket: When you have been AA for the Braves, who and what would you goal over the following few weeks? I do know a wholesome Harris provides some hope behind the lineup, however what do you do about Arcia and the opposite 6-9 who’ve been lackluster?

Ben Clemens: I name up my pals in Toronto and see if Bo Bichette desires to play in Atlanta

Ben Clemens: looks like the ‘oh we simply don’t care about shortstop’ plan is fiiiiinally catching as much as the braves

Key Flaw: The Orioles appear to be creating their prospects into higher defenders than anticipated. Gunnar was anticipated to maneuver to third and never deal with SS, however he has develop into a great defensive SS. Westburg was iffy as a defensive infielder, however the metrics like him. Cowser was a tweener, however seems nice as a CF.

Ben Clemens: Yep, utterly agree

Ben Clemens: it’s actually fascinating. I’ve observed that ZiPS has been extra bullish on every man defensively than the scouting view

Ben Clemens: after I watch Westburg, I see it. I’m undecided I do with Cowser

Ben Clemens: however yeah, they positively appear good at this

tortycraig: Robert or Crochet – who makes extra sense for the Cardinals to focus on? Don’t suppose they may for both ofc, however assuming every commerce is one thing like Scott, Therefore, McGreevy/Graceffo, flyer, flyer or Walker, Graceffo, flyer

Ben Clemens: if the identical package deal will get Robert or Crochet, I’d take Robert and I feel it’s not truly that shut

Ben Clemens: you get an additional yr of staff management. you additionally get somebody who has accomplished it for greater than 3 months

Ben Clemens: Crochet is gonna be a giant commerce chip however controllable hitting is simply so useful

Visitor: Do you suppose Mayo will get moved for pitching, say to Seattle? His AAA numbers look nice. Do you suppose any of the OF choices getted moved too?

Ben Clemens: I feel that the Mariners are simply not gonna commerce their pitching

Ben Clemens: even when it’d make sense theoretically

John: Don’t the Mariners and Cardinals lineup nice for a commerce?  What wouldn’t it take for the Playing cards to get a Kirby or Gilbert?

Ben Clemens: It will take manner an excessive amount of

Ben Clemens: like, begin with Masyn Winn

Ben Clemens: and for my cash, Masyn Winn is probably the most useful Cardinals participant

Ben Clemens: truly, I don’t suppose that’s notably debatable

Ben Clemens: these trades the place contending groups subtract simply don’t actually occur

Visitor: Ought to Nolan jones be dropped all over the place

Visitor: What staff will get probably the most contributions from gamers at the moment on their IL or minor league groups? Who will enhance probably the most with out trades?

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s in all probability the Rangers

Ben Clemens: all that pitching

Ikko: Reynaldo Lopez’s four-seamer has the best run worth of any pitch in MLB. Nevertheless, he doesn’t get tons of whiffs on it, doesn’t get unbelievable extension, permits a number of arduous contact on it, and so on. How is that pitch so good at suppressing run expectancy? Is it simply blind luck? Undecided what all goes into run worth calculations.

Ben Clemens: run worth calculations, at the very least ours, are blindingly easy

Ben Clemens: you’re taking the RE earlier than the pitch

Ben Clemens: you’re taking it after the pitch

Ben Clemens: i suppose we use wOBA, however like, it’s very minimize and dry

Ben Clemens: in our model of pitch values his fastball is tenth finest

Ben Clemens: you’ll be able to take a look at pitchingbot and stuff+ if you wish to dive in a bit deeper

Ben Clemens: they’re each on participant pages now!

Ben Clemens: each of them suppose it’s below-average on pure stuff, however that he has plus location

Ben Clemens: that’s fairly near how I really feel about it

Richie: Invoice James checked out it and determined Craig Biggio did completely dominate the dangerous pitchers and actually struggled in opposition to the great ones just about although the whole thing of his profession.

Ben Clemens: Clearly, some gamers have accomplished this

Ben Clemens: the query is whether or not you are able to do greater than establish it retroactively

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s alongside the identical strains as clutch

Ben Clemens: clearly, some gamers have been clutch

Ben Clemens: it’s much less clear which you could work out who will probably be clutch subsequent yr

John: These are all nice factors.  What about if the Blue Jays resolve to maneuver Gausman?  Tho, Mo was quoted downplaying the necessity for one more SP citing Graceffo and McGreevy at AAA.  Which is insulting to the followers, however par for the course.

Ben Clemens: yeah, this one is smart to me, I may see the Playing cards buying and selling an inexpensive haul for a playoff-caliber starter

Ben Clemens: they might go for Kikuchi in the event that they’re extra considering worth than pure excessive finish

Adam Jones: If the Orioles traded for 3 pitchers by the deadline, who ought to they be? Break em up between starters and relievers as you want.

Ben Clemens: Garrett Crochet, Tanner Scott, Erick Fedde

Ben Clemens: I feel that Crochet and Scott simply make a ton of sense

Ben Clemens: after which I landed on Fedde b/c perhaps they do a package deal cope with Crochet

Smokin’ Jim Leyland: Is Colt Keith ascending? When you excise March and April, his triple slash line from Might 1 to current is a respectable-for-a-rookie .291/.326/.460, with a 120 WRC+. Progress or noise?

Ben Clemens: yeah, I agree

Ben Clemens: respectable-for-a-rookie, that’s only a good line

Ben Clemens: .460 slug, on this economic system?

Ben Clemens: leaguewide slugging is beneath .400 this yr

Ben Clemens: it’s outrageous

Ben Clemens: .460 in Comerica, my goodness

tortycraig: Emerson Hancock for Gorman works re: mariners / cardinals, however I feel Cardinals say no

Ben Clemens: that is alongside the strains of a Playing cards/Mariners commerce that might get accomplished

Ben Clemens: I like this concept, I feel that the Playing cards in all probability would say no? Gorman is a part of their on a regular basis lineup

Ben Clemens: however I feel I’d say sure

Ben Clemens: I feel that sufficient of Gorman’s manufacturing might be changed by rotating utility varieties that they need to attempt to go get some pitching

Gronch: Will the Giants promote? Ought to they?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go together with no and no

Ben Clemens: I feel there’s mainly no likelihood that they promote given staff development

Ben Clemens: and I feel that’s cheap. positive, they’re not in playoff place, however they’re not far out of it

Ben Clemens: and I don’t see any apparent factor that promoting the marginal items would do

Dan: If groups may discipline 9 DHs wouldn’t they selected not too? Perhaps finally they’d however the checklist of prime (9*30) 270 hitters on this planet has a good quantity of overlap with the highest (8*30) 240 fielders on this planet, at the very least for the close to time period, proper?

Ben Clemens: yeah, I agree wiht this, however much more DH’s would see play

Pat: If Detroit decides to commerce Skubal, does that imply they need to additionally attempt to transfer Riley Greene? When you’re tearing it down…

Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose so. I feel they need to be attempting to signal Greene to an extension

Ben Clemens: when are you hoping to compete if you happen to perpetually commerce your good gamers?

Ben Clemens: Greene is a good reminder that generally the highest prospects take some time to click on

Pat: Torkelson for Walker problem commerce! Now that will be fascinating.

Ben Clemens: oh heck yeah

AK: You suppose Jed Hoyer may probably do one thing dumb commerce smart attempting to avoid wasting his job? I feel his contract is up after ’25.

Ben Clemens: I don’t, I feel he appears very purchase the e-book

Josh: Taking a look at batted ball knowledge – will use Altuve for instance. Avg exit velo, bat pace, and arduous hit % are all dangerous. However the candy spot % is nice. What do I take from that? Can being actually good at considered one of these cowl up for those which might be dangerous?

Ben Clemens: yeah, I feel that guys with actually good bat management (altuve, Jose Ramirez, Paredes, Arenado) actually confound the statcast sliders

Harmon Ripkowski: Perhaps Edgar Martinez or Alvin Davis can nonetheless rake

Ben Clemens: I feel we solved it

Oneil Cruz: I’ve quietly been a succesful defensive shortstop this yr

Ben Clemens: quietly, with loud instruments

Ben Clemens: I feel we’d be speaking extra about Oneil Cruz if a)the Pirates offense weren’t so poor total b)Elly De La Cruz weren’t doing it higher

Harmon Ripkowski: If Vince bought on base as a lot as Rickey, would he have the only season steals report?

Blake: Been enthusiastic about handedness splits. And what carries extra weight; stats for the pitcher or for the batter. Like Yordan Alvarez is a lefty with just about no platoon drawback to lefty pitchers (161 wRC+ in opposition to lefties, 166 in opposition to righties in his profession). However lefty relievers continuously get introduced into face him, and infrequently fail. Or that righties would pump changeups to him (he set the report of most changeups hit for a HR in a season with 12 since pitch monitoring began in 2008). Did these pitchers’ platoon splits truly give them a greater shot? Or do the batters’ numbers carry extra weight?

Ben Clemens: pitcher’s numbers carry extra weight

Ben Clemens: hitter numbers are’nt meaningless

Ben Clemens: however they’re compiled in opposition to a broad vary of pitchers with a broad vary of pitches

Ben Clemens: whereas pitchers with sure arsenals (killer slider, bizarre supply fastball) might be nice in opposition to identical handed varieties

Ben Clemens: it’s considered one of these ‘what horrible choice do you wish to take?’ issues while you’re selecting which reliever to herald agaisnt Alvarez

Richie: I don’t get it. Why ought to a playoff staff commerce for Crochet now, when he’ll should be shut down darn quickly, innngs-wise?

Ben Clemens: I maintain listening to that it wouldn’t essentially be the case

Anxious in Seattle: Bryan Woo for Luis Robert – who says no?

Ben Clemens: I feel that the WHite Sox say no

Ben Clemens: it wouldn’t shock me if each groups say no, as a result of once more, the Mariners worth their pitching very extremely

Ben Clemens: however I can’t see the Sox doing that

Thomas: Ben, have you ever checked out Arcs, the brand new board recreation hotness? Performed it yesterday and its glorious

Ben Clemens: let’s have a look

Ben Clemens: wow, heavy area battle, sounds enjoyable to me

Ben Clemens: I truly performed Arc Nova (related title, very completely different) for the primary time final week

Ben Clemens: extremely advocate if you happen to like Terraforming Mars model video games

Calvin: The yanks FO likes tanner Scott however It seems like he’s manner over performing and as soon as he regressed can be a fifth choice out of the pen. Ought to I be comfortable if we land him?

Ben Clemens: I imply, if you happen to suppose you’re getting a 1.4 ERA pitcher, you’ll be upset

Ben Clemens: if you happen to suppose you’re gtting a 30% strikeout charge man who will in all probability stroll too many, which is an inexpensive late inning statline, you’ll be simply high-quality

Thomas: Ark Nova is cool. Not my favorite model of recreation, however I loved the motion mechanism and the overlapping rating tracks

Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s a really intelligent rendition of that model. Additionally I’m a giant theme man, and the theme actually clicked for me

Anxious in Seattle: I learn the Mariners are the favorites to get Jazz. Are the Marlins going to desire a celebrity value for him? He’s been high-quality this yr, however he hasn’t come near being a celebrity.

Ben Clemens: They may WANT a celebrity value, however they aren’t going to get one

Ben Clemens: 104 wRC+ during the last 2 years and 750 PA. positively some harm threat. 2.5 years of staff management remaining

Ben Clemens: how a lot better is Jazz as a commerce chip than Luis Arraez was earlier than the yr?

Ben Clemens: I feel I’d somewhat commerce for Arraez, tbh

Ben Clemens: and he didn’t get a celebrity return

NAT: What components of their future rotation do the Nats have in Gore, Irvin, Parker, Grey & Herz?

Ben Clemens: I’m all the way in which out on Grey

Ben Clemens: I’m all the way in which in on Gore

Ben Clemens: I say they h it on 1 of three of the opposite guys, an inexpensive clip, and everybody’s comfortable

Ben Clemens: different FanGraphs writers, if you happen to’re studying this, maintain your grubby paws off of DJ Herz, I wish to write about him someday quickly

Colton: Do you’ve an concept of what the ‘appropriate’ commerce off is between contact and energy in any of your analysis? Some guys, like Rooker, it pays to simply empty the tank each time and a few guys take the commerce off, Bellinger, and it really works out. Staring and Suwinski’s web page and it makes my mind damage, I really feel like I say that each week in considered one of these chats lol

Ben Clemens: I’ve all the time puzzled about this and it’s a extremely arduous factor to determine

Ben Clemens: mainly I don’t suppose it’s simple to tease out from the statistics

Ben Clemens: as a result of it relies upon so much on notion and hand eye coordination

bosoxforlife: Since all of them can’t play do you like Kierstad or Cowser?

Ben Clemens: Cowser however with a low confidence degree

Visitor: What sort of return would Bo Bichette fetch proper now?  It looks like this may be a prototypical case of promoting low of the Jays commerce him.

Ben Clemens: I’m VERY excited to listen to what groups take into consideration the place I put Bichette on my preliminary checklist

Ben Clemens: it might positively be promoting low

Ben Clemens: however then again, let’s say you’re a playoff contender with a gap at shortstop

Ben Clemens: the Braves, let’s say, or if the Dodgers resolve to maneuver Betts to second to ease the burden on him, then

Ben Clemens: I dunno, perhaps some extra peripheral contenders too

Ben Clemens: do you actually wish to commerce for somebody who you’re largely hoping will lead you to the promised land this yr

Ben Clemens: when he’s hitting .225/.279/.326?

Ben Clemens: now, I feel he’s higher than that obv

Ben Clemens: however… are you assured he’ll repair it instantly?

Ben Clemens: and you actually do want the following two months to be actually good to get worth out of buying and selling for him, it’s not like hte Jays are buying and selling him for a music

Ben Clemens: I used to be on Blake Murphy’s glorious radio present this morning and he requested a model of this quesiton

Ben Clemens: I’d choose to commerce for Vlad over Bo in the mean time, which is completely different than the place I’ve been for the previous few years

Farhandrew Zaidman: Are you boarding the Gavin Stone for ROY hype practice, or do Skenes and Shota have that locked up already?

Ben Clemens: don’t write Yamamoto off simply but

Ben Clemens: however Skenes needs to be the percentages on favourite imo

Farhandrew Zaidman: feels just like the stability of energy of impression rookies has switched from place gamers to pitchers. Ought to we think about splitting ROY into the Jackie Robinson Award (place gamers) and the Fernando Valenzuela Award (pitchers)?

Ben Clemens: eh…. i believe it’s cyclical, and that it’s too early to say that with a lot confidence

Ben Clemens: simply final yr we have been an infinite string of generational hitting prospects profitable awards

Colton: Cavalli nonetheless has a shot to be the perfect of that Nats bunch, simply saying

Ben Clemens: I don’t agree

Ben Clemens: however I feel he has a shot to betowards the highest

Ben Clemens: I simply suppose Gore is admittedly good

Ben Clemens: alright, I gotta get again to the grindstone and get began on one thing for tomorrow

Ben Clemens: have an ideal week, everybody, and in two weeks’ time I’m excited to be speaking about the identical commerce chips, however iwth extra urgency