3 NFL groups who can crash the AFC Playoff image with a robust shut

With 11 full weeks within the books for the 2024 NFL season, there are groups which might be making an attempt to maintain their campaigns from falling into the bidet earlier than it’s too late. None of them are at the moment within the prime seven seeds of their convention playoff image, however all of them have methods to climb out of their dire straits if the whole lot begins to click on.

So, listed below are three groups outdoors the playoff race within the AFC who may truly play their approach in.

Notice: Workforce DVOA metrics, opponent-adjusted remaining energy of schedule, and playoff odds are courtesy of FTN, previously often known as Soccer Outsiders.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)

Present Playoff Odds: 10.5%
Remaining Power of Schedule: twenty ninth in DVOA

Sooner or later, somebody goes to have to assist Joe Burrow out a bit bit. The Bengals at the moment rank seventh in Offensive DVOA, twenty seventh in Defensive DVOA, and twenty ninth in Particular Groups DVOA, in order that tells you numerous about what’s going mistaken right here. Nevertheless it’s worse and extra ridiculous than it’s possible you’ll suppose. Within the Bengals’ seven losses, Burrow has accomplished 191 of 285 passes for two,156 yards, 18 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer score of 107.6. Ja’Marr Chase is at the moment the NFL’s receiving triple crown chief with 73 catches for 1,053 yards and 12 touchdowns. They may do higher than working again Chase Brown and his -12.2 EPA, however you’ll be able to let that slide when your quarterback and No. 1 receiver are enjoying at Most Worthwhile Participant ranges with no constructive returns.

The Bengals have misplaced three video games this season during which Burrow had three or extra passing touchdowns, 300-plus passing yards, and no interceptions — probably the most such losses in a season within the Tremendous Bowl period. Need much more? Cincinnati has three losses this season during which Burrow has led them to 33 or extra factors. In his complete profession. Tom Brady had 4 such losses.

Possibly that’s why Brady, who did so much to amplify iffy receivers and mid-tier defenses to championships at varied factors in his profession, was so passionate in a current interview about what everybody else must do to present Burrow any stage of help.

And you’ll inform that it’s beginning to put on on Burrow.

The excellent news for the Bengals is that their protection in all probability can’t get a lot worse, and even a protection in the course of the pack may flip issues round given the relative ease of Cincinnati’s remaining schedule. If that doesn’t occur, Burrow and Chase will likely be historic footnotes in all of the worst potential methods.

Indianapolis Colts (5-6)

Present Playoff Odds: 20.8%
Remaining Power of Schedule: twenty fourth in DVOA

The Colts have gone forwards and backwards with the thought of propping Joe Flacco up as their short-term quarterback as a result of they’re within the playoff hunt, and going with second-year man Anthony Richardson as a result of the solar goes down, and it’s time to develop Richardson for the longer term. The as soon as 4-3 Colts misplaced three in a row earlier than beating the Jets final Sunday, and whereas beating the Jets isn’t precisely one thing that you just need to put in your resume, it could have saved Indy’s postseason probabilities, reminiscent of they’re. However his current benching appeared to assist Richardson, and he’s at the moment the starter for the remainder of the season till and except head coach Shane Steichen decides to make one more change that’s a season-long concern (except it isn’t).

The Colts may use some defensive assist as nicely, however given defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s schematic constraints, there could also be limitations to a unit that at the moment ranks seventeenth in Defensive DVOA. Bradley’s protection has a ton of four-on-the-floor fronts, minimal protection switches, and prefers to play as an “execution protection” the place it’s extra on the gamers than the playbook. Which is okay if you happen to’ve bought all of the gamers.

So, it’s going to be extra about an offense that ranks twenty third in DVOA versus a remaining energy of schedule that ranks twenty fourth. Except Richardson can construct on what he did towards the Jets in an enormous hurry, the Colts could have run out of highway. However stranger issues have occurred.

Miami Dolphins (4-6)

Present Playoff Odds: 16.0%
Remaining Power of Schedule: twenty seventh in DVOA

This one isn’t powerful to determine. When the Dolphins have Tua Tagovailoa as their quarterback as an alternative of Tyler Huntley or Skylar Thompson, they’re a a lot better group. With Tagovailoa on the sector, Miami has an Offensive EPA of +0.07, and a Passing EPA of +0.17. With out him, their Offensive EPA is -0.27, and their Passing EPA is -0.25. So, plenty of Miami’s future story is about Tagovailoa staying wholesome and non-concussed, and protecting himself out of hurt’s approach. Which isn’t at all times the simplest factor to do.

One level of stress is out of the best way – the 9-2 Buffalo Payments have a chokehold on the AFC East, so the Dolphins aren’t enjoying for that. Past that, Miami’s protection below first-year defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver has seen a severe bump from twenty eighth in Defensive DVOA in Weeks 1-9 to eleventh since. Given the final effectivity and explosiveness of Mike McDaniel’s offense when he has the suitable quarterback, that bettering protection, and a simple slate of video games down the stretch, the Dolphins, who began the season 1-3, are out of the blue a reputable postseason chance.