-
Zach Kram
Draymond Inexperienced does not worry the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder.
“There is a sure seriousness that it takes to win on this league, and there is a sure worry it’s a must to instill in groups with the intention to win,” the Golden State Warriors ahead and four-time champion mentioned on his podcast earlier this season. “I simply do not know in the event that they’re instilling that worry in groups.”
Inexperienced is not alone in that view. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon reported this previous week that “lots of people across the Western Convention — and I talked to coaches on different groups that will probably be within the playoff combine — [feel] there’s not this nice worry of the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder.
“They have not achieved it. And till a group does it, there’s going to be a complete bunch of doubt.”
In fact, the identical may have been mentioned of the 2024 champion Boston Celtics, as doubters questioned whether or not Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown may win it. In 2023, Nikola Jokic wasn’t deemed adequate to guide the Nuggets to the promised land.
And going again to 2015, Inexperienced’s personal Warriors groups confronted criticism that an offense constructed round 3-pointers may elevate the Larry O’Brien Trophy. The Thunder have been each bit as spectacular as these championship groups, even earlier than proving doubters incorrect with a possible title run.
Opponents may not worry the Thunder. Listed below are 22 causes they need to.
1. The Thunder have outscored opponents by 12.7 factors per sport this season, which is on tempo to interrupt an NBA document that has stood for over 50 years. The present mark is 12.3 factors per sport by the 1971-72 Lakers, who famously received 33 video games in a row.
2. Whereas that margin of victory is a regular-season document, historical past means that degree of dominance ought to translate to the playoffs. The earlier high 5 groups in level differential — the 1971-72 Lakers, 1970-71 Bucks, 1995-96 Bulls, 2016-17 Warriors, and 2023-24 Celtics — all coasted to titles, with a mixed 71-12 document within the postseason. None even confronted a Sport 7 en path to the championship.
3. The Thunder have performed their means into such rarefied air due to three foremost elements: depth, star energy and protection. Let’s begin with depth, as a result of normal supervisor Sam Presti has constructed a stacked roster. The Thunder have 11 gamers who’re at the very least league common, in keeping with estimated plus-minus. That is essentially the most for any group, forward of the Memphis Grizzlies‘ 10.
4. All that depth and all of Oklahoma Metropolis’s blowout wins imply coach Mark Daigneault hasn’t needed to pile heavy workloads onto his finest gamers. The one two Thunder gamers averaging greater than 29 minutes per sport are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who ranks thirty third amongst certified gamers in minutes per sport, and Jalen Williams, who ranks forty eighth.
This encouraging pattern additionally applies to the NBA-leading Cavaliers, whose minutes chief, Donovan Mitchell, ranks 71st within the league. And as each Oklahoma Metropolis and Cleveland have giant leads for the No. 1 seeds (11 video games for the Thunder within the West, 7.5 for Cleveland within the East), each ought to be capable of preserve their high guys contemporary for the playoffs.
5. The Thunder’s lead for the West’s No. 1 seed is in truth traditionally giant. With an 11-game lead three-quarters of the way in which by means of the season, the Thunder are projected to win the convention by 14 video games, in keeping with ESPN’s Basketball Energy Index (BPI).
That may tie for the biggest hole between the No. 1 and a couple of seeds in a convention for the reason that NBA-ABA merger; this previous 12 months’s Celtics have been the East’s high group by 14 video games. Out of 12 earlier post-merger groups that received their convention by double digits, 10 received the championship.
6. The distinction between Oklahoma Metropolis and different groups which have flexed their depth to rack up regular-season wins, similar to this 12 months’s Grizzlies, is that the Thunder pair their depth with higher top-end expertise. Gilgeous-Alexander leads the NBA with 32.6 factors per sport, and he is favored to turn out to be the primary guard to win MVP since 2018.
7. Some critics — notably Timberwolves coach Chris Finch, together with loads of rival followers on social media — accuse Gilgeous-Alexander of producing his factors by foul baiting. However whereas Gilgeous-Alexander does lead the league in made free throws — partially as a result of he makes 90% of his makes an attempt — he additionally ranks second in scoring from area targets alone, simply 0.1 factors per sport behind Milwaukee Bucks huge man Giannis Antetokounmpo. And the Thunder as a group are tied for twenty eighth in free throw makes an attempt.
As an alternative, Gilgeous-Alexander distributes his factors pretty evenly from everywhere in the ground: 31% from the midrange, 25% on the rim, 25% from free throws and 20% from 3-point vary. His throwback type is a part of what makes him so exhausting to protect.
8. Gilgeous-Alexander’s biggest offensive power: Like golfer Rory McIlroy, racetrack legend Lightning McQueen and actor Adam, SGA is an elite driver. For the fifth season in a row, Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in drives per sport.
And he’s not merely a quantity driver; he is additionally extremely environment friendly when he will get downhill. This season, the Thunder are averaging 1.20 factors per possession when Gilgeous-Alexander drives and both shoots, commits a turnover or passes to a shooter. In line with Second Spectrum, that mark ranks second amongst 68 gamers with at the very least 400 drives, behind solely Phoenix Suns ahead Kevin Durant.
Mix the amount and high quality of his forays to the rim, and it is clear why Gilgeous-Alexander’s drives instantly result in 4 extra factors per sport than some other participant within the league.
9. Partly due to his means to slither round and slip previous defenders, Gilgeous-Alexander can be a superb isolation scorer. He leads the league in isolation possessions and scores 1.11 factors per iso, which ranks within the 87th percentile amongst gamers with at the very least 100 such performs.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s 1-on-1 scoring means may show particularly necessary within the playoffs. Throughout the NBA over the previous decade, isolation frequency has constantly elevated by a few third within the postseason, in keeping with an evaluation of Second Spectrum knowledge. Typically, in essentially the most clutch moments towards the very best defenses, a contender simply wants a star who can create a bucket for himself.
2:12
Stephen A. questions Shannon’s confidence in Lakers over OKC
Stephen A. Smith and Shannon Sharpe get heated over whether or not the Thunder have what it takes to beat the Lakers in a playoff sequence.
10. Whereas Gilgeous-Alexander paces the offense — aided primarily by contributions from Williams and the surging Aaron Wiggins — the protection thrives due to a broader group effort. Oklahoma Metropolis is permitting simply 106.0 factors per 100 possessions — 3.1 factors under the second-place Orlando Magic.
For context, within the play-by-play period (since 1996-97), the typical hole between the very best and second-best defenses is simply 0.8 factors per 100 possessions; the biggest hole earlier than this season was 2.6 factors. The Thunder are set to smash that document.
11. This is one other approach to specific the Thunder’s defensive dominance. The worst offense this season belongs to the Washington Wizards, who’re averaging 105.5 factors per 100 possessions. Oklahoma Metropolis is successfully turning all its opponents into the Wizards.
12. Oklahoma Metropolis shuts down its opponents in myriad methods, however essentially the most eye-opening could be how successfully it stymies opponent pick-and-rolls. Within the trendy NBA, this play is nearly each group’s bread and butter — however the Thunder throw that into the trash.
The Thunder permit simply 0.90 factors per opponent choose. That is the second-best mark for any group within the 2020s, behind solely the 2019-20 Bucks.
13. Oklahoma Metropolis forces the hardest shot food regimen within the league, in keeping with Second Spectrum. To steal a soccer time period, the Thunder additionally win the possession battle at a ridiculous fee. They lead the league in steals with 10.8 per sport (essentially the most for any group within the twenty first century), in deflections, unfastened ball recoveries and prices, the place they’ve 59 (no different group has greater than 39).
14. The Thunder aren’t turnover masters on protection alone. In addition they lead the league by committing the fewest turnovers on offense.
That mixture means the Thunder drive 5.9 extra turnovers per sport than they commit, which might obliterate the NBA document of 5.1 by the 1987-88 Nuggets. This season, just one different group is even a third of the way in which to the Thunder’s turnover margin.
15. What occurs while you win the turnover battle by a large margin? You win the battle for factors off turnovers by a large margin, too.
The Thunder lead the league in translating takeaways to factors on each ends: They rating essentially the most factors off opponent turnovers (22.4 per sport) and permit the fewest factors off their very own turnovers (12.9), giving them an additional 9.5 factors per sport. No different group has a margin even half that enormous.
16. With so many lockdown defenders on his roster — Williams, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso on the perimeter; Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein inside — Daigneault has loads of choices by means of which he can cycle when opponents get sizzling. The Thunder have not allowed a single 40-point scorer all season, they usually’ve allowed solely six gamers to succeed in 30. (Each different group has allowed at the very least 14 opposing 30-point scorers, and the league common is 24.)
17. All of those numbers are so spectacular that it is virtually straightforward to overlook the Thunder boast them regardless of lacking Holmgren, the reigning Rookie of the Yr runner-up, for many of the season. As a consequence of a damaged pelvis and sprained ankle, Holmgren has performed in simply 18 of 61 video games.
However when he is obtainable, he makes Oklahoma Metropolis’s already nice protection even higher. Holmgren has held opponents to 40% taking pictures close to the basket this season, which leads all gamers who’ve defended at the very least 100 photographs.
18. When Holmgren is on the courtroom, the Thunder are much more dominant than standard, with a plus-17.4 web score that ranks second amongst all NBA rotation gamers. The one participant forward of Holmgren is Gilgeous-Alexander, at plus-17.5. And the remainder of the highest 5 in web score is extra Thunder teammates: Caruso in third place, Isaiah Joe in fourth and Kenrich Williams in fifth.
19. One new benefit for this model of the Thunder is a capability to beat groups with Holmgren on the bench. Within the 2023-24 playoffs, OKC outscored opponents by 11.2 factors per 100 possessions with Holmgren on the courtroom, per Cleansing the Glass. However with no viable backup huge man, the Thunder have been outscored by 7.1 factors per 100 possessions when Holmgren was off the courtroom. That was the biggest on/off hole on the roster and the sixth-largest amongst all gamers with at the very least 300 playoff minutes.
Hartenstein has solved that downside since signing with the Thunder in free company. When he performs with out Holmgren, the Thunder have a plus-12.9 web score, proper in keeping with their total mark. Pending good well being, Oklahoma Metropolis ought to be capable of play each postseason minute with a strong heart patrolling the paint.
20. Hartenstein fixes one other problem that plagued the Thunder this previous season, when a rotation filled with perimeter gamers and the tall-but-slight Holmgren was often helpless on the boards. Within the convention semifinals, the Thunder scored in 29 extra “first-chance” alternatives than the Mavericks did — however Dallas compensated with 29 extra factors off offensive rebounds. However Hartenstein is a burly 7-footer and a very good rebounder. The Thunder rank within the 62nd percentile for defensive rebounding with him within the sport, per Cleansing the Glass — not close to the highest of the league however sufficiently competent. One other weak point, solved. 21. Hartenstein’s presence offers but extra lineup flexibility, and Daigneault has mentioned he plans to make use of the remainder of the common season to experiment with double-big lineups that includes each Hartenstein and Holmgren. These teams have seemed considerably awkward within the early going however fared effectively nonetheless, with a plus-8.8 web score in a restricted pattern, per Cleansing the Glass, regardless of awful luck on 3-pointers. A two-bigs look may not find yourself because the group’s major lineup within the playoffs, however it ought to show helpful as a wrinkle towards sure opponents, such because the supersized Mavericks or in a possible Finals conflict towards Cleveland. 22. Now we have come full circle: The Thunder have so many choices due to the unbelievable depth surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander — which ought to solely develop within the seasons to return as a result of the Thunder have each one of many NBA’s youngest cores and the biggest stash of draft picks within the league. Relying on choose protections, Oklahoma Metropolis may find yourself with a league-high 33 draft picks over the subsequent seven years. (Heck, simply this upcoming June, the Thunder may realistically win the championship and land three top-20 picks!) However these picks are necessary for the long run. For now, because the 2024-25 season winds down, the Thunder have loads to perform within the meantime — a number of NBA information to chase and a playoff bracket filled with opposing groups to frighten.
