Under is my record of the highest 100 prospects in baseball. The scouting summaries have been compiled with info offered by out there information and my very own observations. The ETAs listed typically correspond to the 12 months a participant needs to be added to the 40-man roster to keep away from being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Guide changes are made the place they appear acceptable, however I exploit that as a rule of thumb.
All the prospects under additionally seem on The Board, a useful resource the positioning provides that includes sortable scouting info for each group. It has extra particulars than this text and integrates each crew’s record so readers can examine prospects throughout farm programs. It may be discovered right here.
And now, a couple of vital issues to bear in mind as you’re perusing the High 100. You’ll word that prospects are ranked by quantity but additionally lie inside tiers demarcated by their Future Worth grades. The FV grade is extra vital than the ordinal rating. For instance, the hole between Sebastian Walcott (no. 4) and Quinn Mathews (no. 32) is 28 spots, and there’s a considerable distinction in expertise between them. The hole between Chase Petty (no. 42) and Cam Smith (no. 70), in the meantime, can be 28 numerical locations, however the distinction in expertise is comparatively small.
You’ll additionally discover that there’s a Future Worth consequence distribution graph for every prospect on the record. That is an try to graphically characterize how seemingly every FV consequence is for every prospect. Earlier than his departure for ESPN, Kiley McDaniel used the nice work of our former colleague Craig Edwards to search out the bottom charges for every FV tier of prospect (individually for hitters and pitchers), and the probability of every FV consequence. For instance, based mostly on Craig’s analysis, the common 60 FV hitter on a listing turns into a perennial 5-WAR or higher participant over his six managed years 26% of the time, whereas he has a 27% probability of accumulating, at most, a few WAR throughout his six managed years. I began with these base charges for each participant on this 12 months’s record after which manually tweaked them relying on my extra particular opinions concerning the participant. As an illustration, Alfredo Duno and Caden Dana are each 55 FV prospects, however aside from the truth that their final names are D(x)n(x), they’re nothing alike. Duno is a toolshed athletic outlier with little or no professional expertise, whereas Dana is a steady, massive league-ready workhorse. My hope is that the distribution graphs mirror these sorts of variations.
You might need scrolled forward and seen that Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki is my top-ranked prospect. Final 12 months, we made the choice to cease rating gamers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee, who have been deemed “overseas professionals” by the CBA based mostly on their age and overseas professional league service time. Overseas professionals are unable to earn their crew a compensatory draft choose below the Prospect Promotion Incentive program. In distinction, Sasaki had not but met the overseas skilled requirements but forth within the CBA when he was posted; he signed a minor league contract as a part of the 2025 worldwide class and was topic to bonus pool restrictions. Ought to he win NL Rookie of the Yr, or end within the high three in Cy Younger or MVP voting earlier than he reaches arbitration, he’ll internet the Dodgers a draft choose. He’s additionally youthful than many prospects.
This 12 months’s group of prospects is a little bit bit lighter than normal on the very high. There are a number of gamers who I count on to be constant All-Stars (the 60 FV group), however not the same old prospect or two who appears like a future MVP candidate, although there are most likely a few gamers analyzed right here who will emerge as prospects of that caliber through the subsequent 12 months (Walcott is the odds-on favourite for that) as they get nearer to the massive leagues. There are additionally fewer 55 FV prospects than normal, as that group tends to peter out round no. 50 or so; this 12 months, the final 55 FV is Duno at no. 29. I really feel like I’ve written a model of this every of the final couple of years, which could be as a result of modifications to the rookie eligibility guidelines post-2020 made it simpler for prospects to graduate, as September roster days at the moment are counted towards their energetic main league roster days restrict.
There are a ton of catchers (16) on this 12 months’s record, lots of whom have particular energy for that place. I’ve extra catchers on right here than I do gamers in any respect the nook positions mixed (14), although it’s seemingly that among the guys at present listed right here as catchers will find yourself taking part in first base or left discipline. I are likely to worth hitters who play up-the-middle positions, and pitchers who’re near the massive leagues and have demonstrated sturdiness throughout 100-plus innings of labor, and I believe that rings true greater than normal on this 12 months’s record.
For an additional clarification of the deserves and disadvantages of Future Worth, please learn this and this. If you need to learn a book-length therapy on the topic, one is on the market right here.
