2024 Prospect Week Chat | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe! Thanks for trying out all of our Prospect Week work for the location, together with this chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s get proper into it.

Andrew: You’re a bit decrease on Colt Emerson than a number of the {industry} it appears. What does he want to point out to rise up into that ~50 vary? And ideas on Jeter Martinez?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Emerson quite a bit, ideally he performs just a little higher versus belt-high fastballs going ahead. Jeter is an 18-year-old Mexican DSL arm sitting 92-93 touching higher than that, slider will flash. Lengthy-term dev mission, final I noticed arm motion was tremendous lengthy

Jesse: Do the Mets have a high farm system after consuming all that cash for prospects through the commerce deadline final 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: Extra like tier 2 behind Cubs, BoSox

Free Kyle Manzardo: What’s the meat with Kyle Manzardo, man

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sufficient beef, as in energy, to be a 2 annual WAR performer at 1B. Extra a forty five sort

Angelus Novus: Why is Hollday (70) graded greater than pre-2023 Gunnar/Carroll (65s)? Who do you’re taking over the subsequent decade, from that group?

Eric A Longenhagen: Higher perceived likelihood to remain at SS than I had of Gunnar at that time. Powerful to not take Gunnar of these three on this second.

JDP’s largest fan: What’s holding again JDP from being a high 100 prospect? Simply must see a bit extra energy in sport?

Eric A Longenhagen: Underlying swing and miss was worse than his floor Ok%, in a nook OF spot I need you to show the hit/energy combo is actual greater than he has so far, pressure my hand. Fairly mediocre really feel for the barrel, gonna have gigantic energy. There’s nonetheless a great likelihood he pops, simply hasn’t but.

Morgan (NY): Which prospects presently ranked beneath 75 have the most effective likelihood to enter the highest 25 subsequent season?

Eric A Longenhagen: The youngsters in that vary

Jon Kay: Do chats rely as feedback? No actual query, I admire what you do. Hopefully you’ll be able to stuff Grant Brisbee in a locker.

Eric A Longenhagen: lol a few of them do have a remark part vibe

Ben Schneider: Hello Eric, thanks for all the good work. After a robust 12 months on the plate, why do you assume Connor Norby will not be a 50 FV participant, and the way does he match on the Orioles’ roster?

Eric A Longenhagen: LF for me, not sufficient offense to be a 50 there. Both he or Mountcastle wants to maneuver for him to play, most likely.

Chris: How far was Jose Fleury out of your choose to click on subsequent 12 months ?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s tremendous bizarre. This can be a little Astros righty with an uphill low-90s fastball, he throws a ton of actually glorious changeups and cutters, fairly even pitch combine. I don’t assume it’ll work in a approach that he’ll ever be on the Prime 100, he solely sits like 91 mph, however he must be a extremely misleading lengthy reliever

Eric A Longenhagen: Possibly like Yusmeiro Petit sort?

Roman: What are your ideas on some Zips100 prospects that didn’t make your checklist? I noticed Jagger Haynes at #99 and I don’t assume he’s top15 in SD’s system

Eric A Longenhagen: Jagger will likely be on the One other 10 Names to Know piece. Prototypical body, 91-96 throughout a complete begin, above avg curveball, ill-timed TJ price him a number of time. Wants to point out he can maintain that velo throughout precise SP innings and dev a 3rd pitch

Jon Kay: I like to consider your scores for FV as purposeful regular distributions for outcomes and assume that the worth you decide on is the most probably. Is there a approach that you can add SD in your evalus as a approach of measuring flooring and celling? This man performs nice CF protection so it limits is flooring and subsequently I put a 55 FV on it however the SD has extra skewness? Or is that this simply dressing up what’s a qualitative course of with opinion values to show it quantitive?

Eric A Longenhagen: One of many former prospect writers on the web site tried to do a model of this and folks felt it was tremendous complicated to have flooring/doubtless/ceiling grades. Grade+Variance is just a little simpler and doesn’t really feel such as you’re abdicating making an precise name

eye take a look at appreciator: noticed an fascinating quote from chris antonetti saying good issues about estevan florial. virtually each prospecter and even yankees homers had left him for useless (myself included). something change in his skillset or is antonetti simply wishcasting

Eric A Longenhagen: Swing modified final 12 months, massive time lefty energy hitting his bodily prime. I actually preferred him as a buy-low for them, has what they want in energy. May catch lightning in a bottle for a few years whereas he’s peaking like this. Don’t assume he’s all of a sudden a star, he’s nonetheless very flawed with Ok’s, however may have Raley/Siri run right here. He isn’t prospect eligible anymore, hasn’t been since 2022.

Ryan: May groups worth prospects from Wake Forest much less as a result of they assume they’ve already matched out their abilities with the pitching lab?

Eric A Longenhagen: I dunno if “worth much less” is precisely proper however “mission much less” most likely can be.

Lasres: did you overlook Robby Snelling existed when doing the highest 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: pitch efficiency is fairly generic, fastball velo is beneath MLB common, seems like one other Ryan Weathersesque PR marketing campaign is engaged on hard-blinking on-line of us

Too Many Mooks: Eric, actually beloved the ‘How’s my Driving?’ piece. I hope you are able to do a model of it yearly.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hope to do a pair variations of it all through every year, groups lists, draft ranks, and many others. gracias

dave: How a lot of a unfavorable impact has the elimination of short-season leagues had on participant growth? What share of groups would select to have a short-season group, if allowed?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe it harms the extent of play in A-ball as a result of guys who wouldn’t have climbed by way of quick season find yourself there. It offers fewer gamers alternative to develop however perhaps doesn’t damage any particular person’s dev? I believe the money wealthy groups would like to have extra associates, particularly ones who know they’re good at dev. Proportion clever…

Eric A Longenhagen: lol going through a group guidelines in my head, would BOS pay for an additional affiliate at this level? jeepers

Eric A Longenhagen: most likely like half the groups? There are definnitely individuals in baseball who nonetheless assume there are too many minor leaguers, and MLB has econ incentive to outsource as a lot of dev as doable to varsity baseball. I guess we see additional discount and restructuring subsequent CBA

Luke: Curious what occurred with Ben Brown (high 50 for you finish of season)? Are you viewing his 2nd half command points as a long run downside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sufficient that it limits his function, yeah. Not sufficient that it makes him dangerous.

wheelhouse: Do a selected org’s particular flaws ever influence your evaluation of a person prospect? I take a look at reviews of what Spencer Jones wants to enhance upon to succeed in his ceiling and see contact charges, breaking/offspeed recognition, and floor balls, and people flaws have seemingly been endemic within the yankees’ org for half a decade now with no success tales.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not likely. You get into the grey space between scouting and predicting for those who do it that approach. It will really feel bizarre to have Grade X on a draft prospect, then both increase or decrease relying on the org that drafts him. I believe most FG readers who care about prospects for the needs of fantasy baseball are good sufficient to make these sorts of changes themselves as they parse the impartial work.

Oliver: If not for the notion that he was a robust decide to attend faculty, the place would Cooper Pratt have slotted within the final draft. The Brewers landed a bunch of thrilling prospects forward of him however he appears to have a comparable ceiling to the fellows taken forward of him.

Eric A Longenhagen: I most likely had hello ma little too excessive. He received $1.3 million, which is late 2nd spherical cash. He’s most likely extra early/mid second spherical in a standard draft, was late 2 in a loaded one

NB: Eric and Tess, Nice work once more on Prospect Week!  I subscribe to Fangraphs and different publications as a result of I really like getting a range of opinions.  I really feel such as you guys are likely to charge youthful worldwide signees greater than others whereas rating current MLB draftees just a little decrease.  I’m questioning about how a lot you want Brock Wilken, Aiden Miller, and Dillon Head, 3 draftees who missed your Prime 100.  Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen: All three have been picks to click on, we like them quite a bit. Head put actually robust contact knowledge on paper in professional ball. Miller did too, however I’m just a little suss of his swing, which is like Carter Kieboom/Keston Hiura/Jeter Downs in the way in which his arms loop. Let’s see how he does in opposition to massive velo. Wilken, the report. I need 1B/3B varieties to have nearer proximity to the massive league earlier than I worth them as a 50. The youngsters’ ceilings are a lot greater than Wilken-types (Walcott, and many others) that although they’re lower-prob gamers I wwant to worth to risk that they’re unicorn gamers forward of fellows like Wilken until they’re performing for some time at AA/AAA

Bob: You’re the low guys on Tyler Black. What do you see conserving him from being a high 100 sort? Lack of a defensive residence? Not sufficient bat for questionable protection?

Eric A Longenhagen: Loads of these questions are simply going to be answered with the subsequent piece. I don’t consider in his hit instrument as a lot because the others, I assume. Additionally wanting like a 3B/1B with 40 energy. Can you discover me a man with that profile within the bigs? Lamonte Wade? Is Wade somebody you’d 50? He’s superb however not *that* good.

Tim: Do you assume Colton Cowser is something greater than a platoon man?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t

Keith: Would Drew Thorpe be a strong comp for Alonzo Treadwell? Do you’re feeling he might be elite with a velo bump?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, very diff fastball profiles. One other man whose identify is on this subsequent piece. Vert FB/CRV combo, sitting 92 at UCLA, may use stride alteration to shallow out his FB angle. A breakout choose as a result of Houston tends to be good at this.

Ralph: If Dominguez didn’t tear his UCL, the place would he have slotted?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nearer to fiftieth general

birds birds birds: Way back, I learn someplace that the step from A to AA was the largest soar for a minor leaguer to make.  Agree?

Eric A Longenhagen: Triple-A to massive leagues. WIthin the confines of the minors it’s most likely Excessive-A to Double-A, sure.

Mike Cameron Maybin: Any hope to supply for Luciano being a productive common this 12 months? Clearly the ability’s there and he’s received time, however the Ok charge is… woof. The protection wasn’t stellar both, and early reviews are that he’s placed on weight coming into camp. Continued contact points and a transfer to a nook of spot feels fairly bleak, proper?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fairly bleak, imo. 64% contact charge is beneath any current MLB SS, not to mention OF if he has to maneuver. Nonetheless has big juice, although.

unhappy Rangers fan: What’s your outlook on Leiter now? is there an opportunity he turns into entrance finish and even mid-rotation starter? is it a difficulty of form of pitches, command, management or mixture of all?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fastball remains to be actually good, has zero really feel for location. Kinda in Mac Gore limbo proper now, nonetheless assume Jack will likely be a good massive leaguer however most likely an RP at this level. That is his 40-man eval 12 months so we’d see TEX make a transfer in that regard

Your identify: Love and admire all of the content material. Simply out of curiosity, when do you guys change a prospects place? You’ve Caminero as a RFer although he hasnt performed there within the majors or minors, however you will have Shaw as 2B although he’s taking reps at 3B and fangraphs indicated that’s the place he has the clearest path to the majors.

Eric A Longenhagen: Completely our projection, once I assume it’s the precise name and am tooling round within the guts of The Board, I alter it

Jason: What occurred to the Simply Missed article?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s extra a “100 extra names to know” article in order you’ll be able to think about, it’s fairly lengthy and is being edited.

Chris: How shut was Lazaro montes to being 50’d? What does he want to point out in an effort to be within the high 100 a 12 months from now?

Eric A Longenhagen: One other man within the upcoming article. Gigantic child with big current uncooked, assume the size in his swing makes him dangerous. Wanna see him regulate to fastballs round his arms.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Can science clarify why a number of projection techniques (ZiPS and Steamer) assume Coby Mayo will play above common 3B protection? I might be thrilled, however these conclusions are the direct reverse of what prospect writers say. I believe Longenhagen/Taruskin have projected him at RF since final 12 months.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, evaluating minor league protection visually (when you’ll be able to truly do it completely) gives you approach higher outcomes than a proj system goes to. MAybe proprietary minor league kinatrax and statcast sort stuff may show you how to mannequin protection for those who had entry to that knowledge.

Eddie: When Spencer Jones was as previous as Jasson Dominguez is true now he had a sub .800 OPS within the SEC. Are we being too harsh on Dominguez nonetheless? Really feel like there’s a number of upwards projection for Spencer and downwards for Jasson after they each don’t have a ton of ABs per say

Eric A Longenhagen: If I confirmed you all of Jasson’s swings in a brilliant tight edit proper on high of each other, you’d see how little barrel management there’s. Doesn’t imply I believe he’s dangerous, simply assume the long-term ceiling on Spenny is so massive that he wanted to be elevated

Eric A Longenhagen: Age variations and variations in projection usually go hand in hand, however not so far as these two are involved. Jasson’s physique is maxed, the cement is dry. Jones’ will not be.

Jordash: Is it simply me, or do you generally confuse Jordan Westburg and Paul Westerberg, lead singer of the Replacements?

Eric A Longenhagen: I confused John Henry and Patrick Henry on a historical past take a look at in highschool and my trainer instructed me my priorities have been effed

Jordash: Jordan Westburg will get overshadowed within the robust Orioles system. Do you assume he may be an on a regular basis man by 12 months’s finish?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve extra a forty five on him as a result of the protection is kinda bleh. Is likely to be out-talented by the others. Nonetheless a great participant, simply ideally need him to have a lefty/protection caddy. Assume J Ortiz was extra an omnisituational man, Westy has extra juice tho.

Refugee: For Eric/Tess: 1. How do you employ plate self-discipline and batted ball knowledge to paint your scouting? 2. The place are you getting that knowledge from? I can solely discover it publicly accessible on the AAA degree.

Eric A Longenhagen: We’re sourcing milb-wide knowledge from group contacts. I’m chase, chase relative to uncooked swing%, and for the primary time this offseason chase relative to 2-strike chase%. The chase knowledge is illuminating greater than in-person appears, batted ball/contact stuff serves to substantiate the visible scouting report and discover guys we’ve neglected.

Scott: Observed Solometo will not be on high 100.  What do you’ll want to see from him to crack checklist sooner or later?

Eric A Longenhagen: Two or three extra ticks. I believe he’s extra a no. 4/5 than a mid-rotatino man, there aren’t many influence starters who solely sit 91-92.

mason morris: Druw Jones? Why does nobody love him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Seemed so out of whack when he was wholesome final 12 months that there’s no approach he hits until his sing adjustments.

JH: Juan Brito was on final 12 months’s model of the Picks to Click on and appeared to carry out precisely as anticipated, succeeding in A+ and AA whereas exhibiting the identical mixture of contact, endurance, and just a little pop that appeared to catch your eye final 12 months. Any perception as to why he missed this 12 months’s checklist? Has the scouting report backed up, or have been you projecting a leap ahead whereas his 12 months was extra like treading water?

Eric A Longenhagen: Protection is horrible

Ryan: How troublesome is it to vary your fastball form? If you’ll be able to change the form, how a lot does it influence your command/management?

Eric A Longenhagen: In all probability simpler stated than achieved and is dependent upon the particular person. I’ve seen man merely alter pronation/supination on launch, I’ve seen guys change the way in which their wrist is positioned, I’ve seen reworked arm paths and adjustments in stride route which have influence up the physique in such a approach that alters arm and strategy angle. Discovering one thing the athlete can do persistently so their management doesn’t completely wash out is a crucial piece of it.

Phil: Do you will have any ideas about David Sandlin? Breslow appears to assume he might be a significant league starter quickly.

Eric A Longenhagen: Fairly typical three-quarters arm slot righty with a mid-90s fastball and presently common slider. His changeup’s charge stats from 2023 counsel he must be throwing it extra, and we should always all be seeking to see if Boston tweaks the form/grip of his slider this 12 months. They’ve two years to develop him earlier than he must be placed on the 40-man.

Keith: Any examples of very profitable pitchers with poor fastball form? How doomed is a pitcher with a “lifeless” fastball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Luzardo, Bibbee, Kirby…a lot of guys, you simply need to do different stuff like throw actually arduous.

Phils honk: Is Caba the most effective defender you’ve ever seen at that age? Is he essentially the most proficient defensive SS since Ozzie Smith like some say?

Eric A Longenhagen: Slickest infield I’ve seen since Jose Iglesias and Freddy Galvis

visitor: How do you reconcile conventional scouting versus newer superior metrics approaches like Stuff+? take Sawyer Gibson-Lengthy for instance. he was by no means a excessive pedigree prospect and his fastball in keeping with Fangraphs scouting is a 40 grade. However in keeping with stuff+, his change-up and sinker are two of the very best rated pitches within the mannequin, and his quick is above common. His FIP and xERA appear to again up his restricted outcomes. Thanks for the suggestions!

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff+ overvalues guys whose stuff has lateral motion

Get Two, Brute?: Is there any explicit growth difficulty with current Pittsburgh graduates you’ll be able to level to relating to their stalled rebuild? Three pitching prospects misplaced substantial velocity in 2023. And on the place participant aspect, they gave roughly 1500 plate appearances to rookies who put up a collective 0.2 WAR. Is there one thing to level to with their younger gamers struggling a lot?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a kind of backfields that I’m solely on a few times a 12 months, and it’s powerful for me to snoop sufficient to get a greater concept of what they’re doing with dev.

Mike S: What occurred to Yiddi Cappe final season?  Is he nonetheless a prospect in your eyes or has he dropped off the map?

Eric A Longenhagen: Blerg, didn’t look viable at SS and never sufficient offensive juice to comfortably profile at 2b solely. I used to be overzealous final 12 months.

David: Farmelo is a shock, tooled up excessive schooler was sort of the outline of him going into the draft and as a consequence of damage he was barely in a position to play within the minors, was curious if there was something further to may word about what you noticed throughout instructs? Did he actually stand out that rather more than most each one else?

Eric A Longenhagen: He performed throughout instructs after which throughout Cal League playoffs. Freakish measurement/energy for a teen once you stand proper subsequent to him, swing remains to be work in progress, loopy energy/velocity combo.

PJ: I used to be stunned to see Payton Martin omitted from the picks to click on checklist. What about him fails to impress you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gotta reject the premise of this query. Simply not sufficient house on P2C to incorporate each single prospect I like, he’s a prospect and will likely be on the group checklist. 6ft righty threw lower than 40 innings final 12 months, sitting 95 (present me over 120 innings por favor), arduous mid-80s slider. Good prospect

romorr: If there was a Baltimore Oriole pitching prospect in subsequent years high 100, are you able to give me your two greatest guesses? Baumeister and De Leon?

Eric A Longenhagen: nailed it with Baumeister i believe

Eric A Longenhagen: you guys are good at this and principally guessing the names on this subsequent piece

jakefromboonesfarm: A lot of distance between main rankings of Kjerstad/Cowser, neither of whom blew any doorways off in majors final 12 months.  What separates them a lot in your eval?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kjerstad’s physicality and barrel management > Cowser. Cowser is a extra discerning hitter however doesn’t have practically as a lot bodily expertise. Heston appeared cumbersome and robust throughout ’22 AFL, appeared tremendous reduce and explosive in 2023, I believed he hit a distinct gear.

Jeremy: As a Phillies fan, how anxious ought to I be that Mick Abel doesn’t appear to have improved a lot since he was drafted?

Eric A Longenhagen: Slightly bit. I’m nonetheless betting on his physique and the way in which it strikes in a reasonably profound approach. I believe it’s extra about him getting really feel for his lengthy/explsoive physique than them altering what he’s doing.

Reggie: the dodgers appear to have actually achieved effectively with their most up-to-date DSL group. Who do you want greatest joendry vargas. Quintero or another person?

Eric A Longenhagen: effectively considered one of them was on the highest 100 and one was a choose to click on

Kate: Shocked to not see Celesten within the “that is what they seem like” part of the picks to click on.  Is that merely a results of him simply not moving into video games final 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: yep, additionally within the upcoming piece, noticed two video games within the Fall and appeared good on D, rusty on the dish. purely a wait and see how he appears sort, we nonetheless don’t actually *know* something in regards to the hit instrument with zero professional knowledge and due to how restricted in-person appears have been in 2023

Colton: Prospect week has been superior, thanks for capping it off with this chat. Out of curiosity, how usually do you end up writing up a man that neither you or Tess have seen your self? Simply going purely off what different colleagues within the {industry} have on them.

Eric A Longenhagen: by no means ever

Eric A Longenhagen: there are guys who i haven’t seen in particular person however, at worst, I’m doing a ton of movie research and have knowledge to formulate my very own opinion

Abimelec Ortiz: Ideas on the hitter with the most effective identify within the minors?  He crushed it final 12 months with Ok enhancements upon promotion, however clearly 1B hurts his list-ability.

Eric A Longenhagen: you nailed it, simply assume the efficiency is just a little shy of high 15 at 1B as a result of it’s 1B.

Daniel: How massive of swing by way of worth is Austin Wells defensive place?

Eric A Longenhagen: huge. Jonah Heim and Edward Olivares had the identical wRC+ final 12 months.

Gronch: How would you will have graded Brandon Belt’s energy developing? Clearly the entire package deal, with glorious on-base, above common protection, and playable hit instrument was sufficient to profile as an above common 1B, however he by no means hit for large energy

Eric A Longenhagen: Dayum, you’re hitting me with a throwback. maintain please…

Eric A Longenhagen: I used to be just a few months shy of turning 22

Matt: What are you emotions on Brandon Crawford?  Most individuals have him ranked however you didn’t.  

Total, do you see the Phillies as having a corporation that’s trending in the precise route?

Eric A Longenhagen: Justin Crawford (no worries, all of us brainfart) has a full report on the Phils checklist. Simply not sufficient energy, no present MLB hitter hits the ball on the bottom as a lot as he does. wants adjustment fairly badly, imo.

Sanford: Mets prospects are quick (Gilbert 5’9″, Jett 5’6″, Acuña 5’8″). Only a coincidence or is that this reflective of some organizational philosophy (clearly not re: top particularly, however maybe re: instruments/profile/flooring/ceiling that shorter prospects are likely to have, if such stuff may even be generalized throughout top)

Eric A Longenhagen: good catch. I do assume lever size is a trait groups care about and might need to do with stability of the hit instrument. The Grizzlies appear to take guys undervalued as a consequence of lack of size within the NBA, too. Bane, Tillman, Roddy, Brooks, and many others.

Kate: Was just a little stunned to see Luis Morales soar into the Prime 100 so early.  Do you assume he’s a quick mover from right here to the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Positively not. Prototype pitcher’s physique and elite arm velocity, purely a ceiling-driven embrace.

Tacoby Bellsbury: What’s essentially the most stunning {industry} suggestions you obtained in your high 101 this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: had too few inside jokes

ram: Has there ever been a disparity between your checklist and the ZIPs checklist that has induced you to return and reevaluate a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, Danny sends me zips just a few days forward so i can double examine some guys. This 12 months it was Danny de Andrade, who I felt snug transferring on from rapidly from a high 100 standpoint, nonetheless a good prospect who’ll be on their group checklist

Pirates Hurdles: Interested by Termarr’s path, what do you’ll want to see from him in 2024 to maneuver him again up the lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tess-driven stuff job there. Mucho energy and carry, can have uncommon 2B pop regardless of flawed hit instrument. Gonna Ok a ton.

Deputy: Who’s the subsequent unheralded Yankee arm that turns into a stud reliever for them in 24?

Eric A Longenhagen: Take your choose of the DSL arms on their checklist, Arias, and many others.

RoadWarriorShaq: What does Chandler Simpson have to do that 12 months to start out making his approach onto prospect lists.  .330 OBP, 50 SB, good CF protection appears extra like a certainty than a risk.

Eric A Longenhagen: Def a group checklist man already. Prime 100? IDK, is Myles Straw understanding gangbusters?

Walton Dilcox: I’m loopy about this Wyatt Langford, some freaky dominant numbers right here. What retains him out of the #1 spots?

Eric A Longenhagen: Is likely to be a DH

Too Many Mooks: To what share of those questions may you simply reply “Learn the article, dingus”?

Eric A Longenhagen: The proportion has lowered since we began chatting

Eric A Longenhagen: truthfully this 12 months it’s most likely solely like 10%

Spencer: Of the fellows on the highest 100 who’ve but to play within the MLB but, who’s most probably to open up on the MLB roster and have a profitable season?

Eric A Longenhagen: I received’t rely Chourio, both (nevertheless it’s most likely him)…

Eric A Longenhagen: saying Colt Keith can also be kinda dishonest…

Eric A Longenhagen: How about Jairo Iriarte?

J: That is each a real-life and fantasy-driven query. With the evolution of the SP function, I discover it more and more troublesome to gauge worth.  Simply by way of the way you strategy rankings, each worth/slotting, has it affected you and Tess’ valuations? If that’s the case, what has it modified?

Eric A Longenhagen: For certain. I’ve flattened their curve, so to talk. Fewer workhorse SPs producing WAR worth by way of innings quantity, extra innings to go round means extra 40/40+ varieties who work in bulk reduction, or who you’ll want to get key outs within the center innings. For fantasy I don’t envy you as a result of it’s extra about counting stats than expertise and also you’re additionally gauging group state of affairs. Within the one league I’m in (dynasty sim) I actually solely draft attractive arms when the worth feels too good to cross up, I’m extra on secure performers and paths to alternative than upside more often than not

Eric A Longenhagen: nice query btw

Your Title: Have you ever heard of or seen Kevin Watson Jr.? Lesser identified outfield/catching prospect within the low minors of the Angels org. If that’s the case, would love any notes you will have

Eric A Longenhagen: After all, that man’s just like the mayor of the IE. Had a bobblehead evening final 12 months, didn’t he? Lefty-hitting org man with enjoyable defensive versatility.

Billy G: Along with all of the relocation stuff for the A’s, they’ve actually gotten screwed a bit with the draft lottery. Sixth choose in a draft that had 5 “first general” varieties in most years. Now fourth in a weak draft. And if I’m studying the CBA appropriately, they’ll’t choose high 10 subsequent 12 months no matter how dangerous they’re. Even when I persist with them to Vegas, is there any hope?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bro, it’s a tragic state of affairs. The individuals who work for that org within the entrance workplace, dev and scouting, in addition to the gamers themselves, all deserve higher. What should or not it’s prefer to be Tyler Soderstrom or Gelof proper now and know you’re going to spend the subsequent couple of years grinding for its personal sake. It might be career-altering for his or her younger gamers to be in such a bizarre, awkward bind like that and try to encourage eacother simply because.

prospect month: Graham Pauley getting reps at 1B and LF–how satisfactory would the glove need to be in these spots for the bat to play as a median starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Possibly not a median starter (you’re speaking like fifteenth greatest man at LF/1B, that’s a extremely good participant) however undoubtedly higher than their options.

Manny: You’re an growth group and you’ll steal all of the Yankees within the high 100 or all of the RedSox. Which group are you taking?

Eric A Longenhagen: hmmmmmmm BoSox

romorr: Talking of ZiPS, Fabian was fairly excessive there, however the Ok% was fairly horrid as soon as he received to AA. What number of prospects Ok that a lot, that determine it out at that degree? Steep hill to climb, no?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure and did movie work on his protection, which isn’t CF match for me

camelcase: Sebastian Walcott’s report fascinates me. Excessive energy potential with weak hit instrument at a premium defensive place. Is that this Joey Gallo at shortstop if all the pieces breaks proper?

Eric A Longenhagen: Javy Baez if all the pieces breaks proper. Mark Reynolds is extra center of the road final result

sliptoad: ideas on brice matthews changing bregman at third? individuals on the astros subreddit appear to assume that’s the long run however based mostly in your picks to click on writeup he appears far too uncooked for that sort of timeline

Eric A Longenhagen: agree with you greater than the redditors. He’s SO uncooked. Tremendous gifted, although. Would count on a decrease burn. However hey, George Springer was additionally a proficient mess when he was drafted…

Eric A Longenhagen: so was derek fisher

Thom: Hello Eric: you’ve beforehand talked about that this 12 months’s checklist is shorter as a consequence of a smaller pool of high-end prospect expertise. Do you see this as momentary or do you count on the high-end prospect expertise pool to stay comparatively small going ahead?

Eric A Longenhagen: Little little bit of each. I believe it is a down 12 months but in addition assume the post-covid guidelines round rookie eligibility make it simpler to graduate off the lists.

John: Roki Sasaki would rank high 3 if he have been on the checklist?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2-4 vary, yeah

New UK Fan: Thanks for all of the work. Rafaela vs PCA for defence solely?

Eric A Longenhagen: man that’s soooo powerful. Gimme Rafaela as a result of he can play the INF too

Jake: What’s your prediction for the subsequent wave in analytics?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s already underway throughout a number of the league, however: quantifying the way in which the physique strikes in actual time. Mapping patterns of motion by way of graph, assessing flexibility by way of angles of the hips and shoulders and utilizing it each as an eval instrument and to make MLB changes in-game

Eric A Longenhagen: I additionally marvel what a number of years of the mix will yield by way of the way in which these evaluation correlate or not with professional success.

onomatopoeia: No query, simply needed to say prospect week guidelines. There’s a lot glorious content material. I particularly love the Successfully Wild appearances. Thanks for the entire arduous work!

Eric A Longenhagen: gracias, it looks as if a number of of us hearken to EW

Kate: Not a high 100 guys, however I’ve heard tremendous disparate reviews on Ricardo Cabrera.  Some had him as a legit plus runner final 12 months on the advanced and now I’m seeing others reporting that his physique has backed up considerably to the purpose the place he may have to maneuver to 1B ultimately.  Have you ever gotten any appears at him just lately?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tremendous tough take a look at SS, can barely throw the ball to first base precisely. Positively gonna tumble down the defensive spectrum, hit knowledge is basically robust.

Billy G: Any notes but on Tzu-Chen Sha?

Eric A Longenhagen: OMG sure, nerd

Eric A Longenhagen: sneaky 90-92, curveball command and depth, changeup appeared fairly good within the fall, too. backend sort

Simon: Hello Eric, Wyatt Langford’s soar over the three guys drafted above him is tremendous fascinating to me. What did he present in these previous couple of months post-draft that the scouts weren’t seeing? Looks like the consensus on his “rank” in that class shifted in a single day

Eric A Longenhagen: Turning on the ball with energy approach higher than simply about another high prospect

Eric A Longenhagen: Completely cleansing out velo round his arms, the place Crews Chourio and Cami all can get beat

Walton Dilcox: Can Rodney Inexperienced play CF?

Eric A Longenhagen: That is an OF at Cal. Not for me. Powerful profile in a nook, prob not sufficient contact. Love the ability, although.

Snowbird: I’m wondering your ideas on Welbyn Francisca?  You had him as a 70 grade hit in 2023, his debut went effectively, and I heard that he’s now 5’11’’ 185-ish. Any likelihood he pops?

romorr: I don’t actually assume Chayce McDermott has achieved sufficient to be a starter, however there have been some indicators late. Nonetheless a MIRP/SIRP for  you? Or do you assume there’s “extra” that might get him a spot within the rotation.

Eric A Longenhagen: of the fellows with reduction threat in that 45 FV space he’s the one I believe has the most effective likelihood to iron issues out. he’s so unfastened and lengthy and athletic…gonna be an influence arm of some form.

h8r: Are dodgers prospects essentially the most overrated (industry-wide) as a consequence of perceived developmental benefits within the org?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do assume the attractive orgs get a bump, typically

Misplaced A’s Fan: I learn that Matt Shaw had a 90% z-contact charge and premium EV final season. However his future hit instrument grade is barely a 50 and future energy is graded as a 55. Did I get dangerous information on his contact charges or is Fangraphs being conservative on his projections?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m being considerably conservative as a result of his swing is kinda bizarre wanting, and i believe the chase will ultimately influence his hit instrument

Will: Did you contemplate together with Yohandy Morales in your “Picks to Click on for 2025” article? And if that’s the case, was there a selected motive you’ve soured on him because the 2023 draft? Or was he neglected/there simply wasn’t sufficient house to say him in that article?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was actually excessive on him pre-draft, went later than i believed, complete incapability to drag the ball is considerably regarding so if I needed to choose a motive that’d be it

Walton Dilcox: Is it simply me or did the 2023 class kick ass throughout their professional debuts? School and HS esp up high…I’m loopy about Langford and Jenkins now and even past it looks as if a banner draft

Eric A Longenhagen: they kicked ass

j: what goes on into the numerous variations, after they occur, between dash velocity (78th percentile) and run grade (45/40) for guys like volpe? how can we establish candidates to outperform run grades?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t assume dash velocity is a good way to eval velocity. Or relatively, it’s much less helpful than a participant’s typical run time for my part. Dash velocity measures velocity of their quickest one-second window of working. House-to-first occasions incorporate acceleration and lengthy velocity, in addition to a measure of the occasion wherein velocity makes the largest distinction (out vs protected at 1B).

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: How usually do you get an opportunity to look at Worldwide or Japanese League video games in particular person? Do you will have video sources in lieu of seeing them on the park?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll go residence to PA for every week or two each summer season and base myself out of Catty, get like 10 video games or one thing like that. It’s not excellent, I’d like to have a second full time author who in a geographically completely different spot than I’m in however FG is a small op. Synergy is an unimaginable instrument

Narvain: Nice work, Eric!  In your EW podcast look you talked about pitchers having the perfect body being one thing you checked out for prospect analysis.  What’s the splendid physique measurement for a SP these days?  Has it modified in any respect?

Eric A Longenhagen: 6ft3 or so, broad shoulders, flat again tapering right down to a excessive waist. low-to-the-ground athletcism with bend, energy, steadiness within the decrease physique, unfastened arm motion

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe groups are extra open to quick king pitchers due to strategy angle concerns

TomBruno23: What/Who’re you most wanting ahead to watching in FL and AZ as soon as the faux video games get going?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe each Central divisions might be a number of enjoyable.

Jonny: If Kevin Parada can’t keep behind the plate, does he nonetheless have worth as a nook OF/IB sort?  Or is his offense not enough?

Eric A Longenhagen: (cringes) appeared substandard throughout the board final 12 months, my dude

Hal: Is there a prospect archetype you’ve turn out to be considerably greater or decrease on during the last a number of years?

Eric A Longenhagen: Flawed nook bats when the ability is a 70 or higher

Bob: Lamonte wade is projected to complete w/ 6.7 warfare by way of finish of group management. is that not a 50?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, 2 annual WAR (so 12 give or take) is my barometer for a 50

Parv: I’ve seen a number of feedback just lately (from each writers and readers) asserting that scouting/prospecting is general far more correct now than it was even 5 or 10 years in the past, partially as a consequence of all of this newly accessible knowledge within the minors and faculty. What’s your tackle that? Have you learnt anybody who’s tried to investigate this by way of time to see if we’re figuring out the precise prospects earlier or getting extra correct with FV grades?

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh we’re approach higher at this now, each by way of expertise and entry to studying instruments. I’d like to do retrospective evaluation however you find yourself denigrating your friends, I’m not impartial as a result of i write for one of many pubs price evaluating (i’d hope) and I’ve a lot work to do maintaining with the present goings on. I attempted to some self eval by way of my How’s My Driving piece final week

Eric A Longenhagen: couple extra, daddy’s battery is dying and his espresso is getting chilly

Colton: The place would Soderstrom have slotted if he hadn’t surpassed rookie eligibility?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d nonetheless stuff him. 70 energy

Eric A Longenhagen: 55 close to Kjerstad

Ryan: What can we count on to see from Justin Campbell this 12 months? Thanks on your time.

Eric A Longenhagen: Somebody with CLE instructed me he’s good to go however I don’t know how he’ll look

Andrew: How a lot do you low cost HBP relative to BB for a batter?  Looks like some guys (e.g., Dalton Speeding has been HBP like 8% of the time since his final 12 months at Louisville) have this as a “talent” to a point, nevertheless it’s most likely much less repeatable than BB talent?

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed. Ty France will get hit by so many pitches as a result of he half-swings at pitches in on his arms that he has no enterprise swinging at and his again elbow will get lit up. It’s a constant a part of his sport nevertheless it’s created by a deficiency not a talent.

Scurvy: I would like you to exit on a limb and provides me a intestine prediction for the way Daniel Espino’s profession will prove.

Eric A Longenhagen: Most certainly? Brendan McKay’s buddy.

Eric A Longenhagen: I got here residence giddy the final time i noticed him wholesome was a number of the greatest stuff i’ve ever seen in particular person, ever ever. Shoulders, man.

Will: Is DJ Herz nonetheless anticipated to be only a reliever? Or did his efficiency in 2023 give any motive to vary that impression?

Eric A Longenhagen: RP, imo

Eric A Longenhagen: Washington ought to give him each opp to start out, why not?

DH: I used to be a bit stunned to not see Joey Loperfido within the high 100 given his proximity and flexibility. Does he look extra like a forty five, and if that’s the case, why?

Eric A Longenhagen: you will have it gauged proper, contact charges aren’t good however I actually like him, had him stuffed on HOU checklist final 12 months and will likely be in an identical spot as a march through group lists

Nassim Nunez: Whats my ceiling ?

Eric A Longenhagen: slick utility man

Contented O: Are Norby and Cowser sufficient to headline a commerce package deal for Stop? I believe if they’ll get it achieved with out transferring Holliday Mayo Kjerstad Westburg Basallo, giddy up!

Eric A Longenhagen: not for me, bro.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not even shut

Kate: How is the final article coming in the present day completely different from the picks to click on article precisely?  Seems like in the present day’s might embrace guys who you don’t count on to rise, however are simply outdoors the highest 100 in the intervening time?  Possibly contains guys anticipated to graduate as effectively?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s extra about guys you wish to learn about proper now for a story motive. It’s not titled effectively within the nav widget, which is all Megan’s fault. 🙂

Tempe, AZ: Easy accessibility to the ACL, prolonged spring coaching, and the AFL looks as if an enormous plus for dwelling right here.  How does this influence your technique of evaluating prospects? Does it assist you to get extra and higher appears at gamers whose groups have complexes in Arizona? And do you’re feeling extra assured in these evals compared to prospects from groups who you may solely see on video or 1-2 per 12 months (like those that practice in Florida)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure to all, that is my full time job and I’m at just a few hundred video games a 12 months

Travis: Was Zach Thornton at Mets most up-to-date instructs? Noticed him quite a bit all through his novice profession and he all the time comped to a Matt Strahm sort for me, curious to your ideas regardless of him not throwing knowledgeable inning but.

Eric A Longenhagen: No person did instructs in FL moreover TB and PIT. I like Thornton, lefty from GCU, upper-80s, unfastened/athletic/projectable physique, breakong ball has form however wants energy…fascinating dev faculty arm

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everybody, after simply over 2 hrs i’m gonna name it. Due to the five hundred of you who’re nonetheless right here. Please contemplate a subscription to the location and thanks for all of your form phrases.